Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
400 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A line of storms is moving through the Mid-South at this time and
will continue to move east this morning. Expect most of the severe
weather will be out of the area by early afternoon. We have had
reports of damage from this line already this morning. Expect that
it will be able to continue to produce some damaging winds as it
moves east. Also there is enough shear/helicity that storms are
capable of producing a tornado or two.

Gusty winds will continue after the front moves through as surface
low has good gradient winds till tonight. The air mass behind the
cold front will bring in some cold air, yet temperatures will be
near normal.

In general models are in good agreement with the systems for the
next week.

By the beginning of the week, the Mid-South returns to southwest
flow aloft and a weak warm front moves through the area which
allows the temperatures to warm up again. This warm front is ahead
of a couple of low pressure systems that will bring moisture back
into the area. Tuesday into Wednesday look to be better chances
for rain as a low moves just to the north of the area and another
cold front moves through on Wednesday.

The cold front on Wednesday at this time doesn't look as strong as
this mornings frontal system. However, the area will get another
round of rain. Precipitable waters for this next storm are only
around 1 inch. (Compared to the 1.5 or more from this morning and
today.)

The cold front on Wednesday will usher in another period of cold
air into the region. TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs

LLWS will continue to be an issue over the next several hours.
Wind profiler continues to show 180/60kts from KNQA. Surface winds
will remain strong through late tomorrow morning.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to push
through all sites over the next 12 hours or so. Approximate
timing has been outlined in TEMPO groups per each site. Expect
winds to reach near 50 kts as the line pushes through. Behind the
line, winds will remain strong and variable as a low pressure
system lifts northeast. Conds should improve to VFR at all sites
near or just after the end of this period.

AC3/TLSJr

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-
     Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
514 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-111315-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
514 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Chances for rain will increase through the day today. The flooding
potential will then likely increase tonight when rain becomes
heavy. Rainfall amounts will range from 2-3 inches with isolated
higher amounts. Flash flooding and river flooding will be
possible. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued.

Strong to severe storms will be possible tonight for areas along
and west of the Mississippi River. Damaging winds, hail, and
tornadoes are all possible with this event. In addition with
saturated soils already in place, downed trees may be possible
with strong gradient winds that are expected to occur tonight. A
Wind Advisory has been issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An extended period of rainfall is forecast through Saturday.
Rainfall amounts will range from 2-3 inches with isolated higher
amounts. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible. A
Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Saturday.

Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday along and east
of the Mississippi River. Damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes are
all possible with this event. In addition with saturated soils
already in place, downed trees may be possible with strong
gradient winds that are expected to occur during that time period.
A Wind Advisory has been issued.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight into Saturday.

KRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
127 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ARZ009-018-026-028-MOZ113-115-110815-
Greene AR-Craighead AR-Mississippi AR-Clay AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
127 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 215 AM CST
FOR...

Eastern Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Craighead County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Eastern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Western Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 126 AM CST...strong thunderstorms producing winds at least 40 mph
was located along a line extending from Campbell to near Bay.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

People in eastern Greene...northeastern Craighead...northwestern
Mississippi...eastern Clay...western Pemiscot and Dunklin Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3641 8996 3640 8997 3639 8997 3639 8975
      3643 8974 3643 8973 3641 8969 3641 8968
      3575 8999 3578 9062 3650 9013 3650 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0726Z 242DEG 32KT 3650 9008 3580 9057

SGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
209 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG UNION CITY              36.42N  89.05W
01/11/2020                   OBION              TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TWO TREES FELL ON A VEHICLE IN UNION CITY DUE TO
            GRADIENT WIND. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
226 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E WHEATLEY            34.92N  91.09W
01/11/2020                   ST. FRANCIS        AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEMI BLOWN OVER ON INTERSTATE 40 NEAR MILE MARKER 222
            NEAR WHEATLEY. REPORT RELAYED THROUGH AMATEUR RADIO.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E WHEATLEY            34.92N  91.09W
01/11/2020                   ST. FRANCIS        AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            7 TRACTOR TRAILORS BLOWN OVER ON INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN
            MILE MARKERS 222 AND 225 NEAR WHEATLEY.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS...SOURCE

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE WYNNE              35.22N  90.78W
01/11/2020                   CROSS              AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WIND DAMAGE SE OF WYNNE, AR. WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.

&&

MGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N  90.69W
01/11/2020                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOME ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE. TWO FEET OF WATER OVER
            RICHARDSON DRIVE IN EAST JONESBORO.

&&

MJ