Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/

DISCUSSION...
A line of storms is moving through the Mid-South at this time and
will continue to move east this morning. Expect most of the severe
weather will be out of the area by early afternoon. We have had
reports of damage from this line already this morning. Expect that
it will be able to continue to produce some damaging winds as it
moves east. Also there is enough shear/helicity that storms are
capable of producing a tornado or two.

Gusty winds will continue after the front moves through as surface
low has good gradient winds till tonight. The air mass behind the
cold front will bring in some cold air, yet temperatures will be
near normal.

In general models are in good agreement with the systems for the
next week.

By the beginning of the week, the Mid-South returns to southwest
flow aloft and a weak warm front moves through the area which
allows the temperatures to warm up again. This warm front is ahead
of a couple of low pressure systems that will bring moisture back
into the area. Tuesday into Wednesday look to be better chances
for rain as a low moves just to the north of the area and another
cold front moves through on Wednesday.

The cold front on Wednesday at this time doesn't look as strong as
this mornings frontal system. However, the area will get another
round of rain. Precipitable waters for this next storm are only
around 1 inch. (Compared to the 1.5 or more from this morning and
today.)

The cold front on Wednesday will usher in another period of cold
air into the region. TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

As of 12Z...Line of strong to severe thunderstorms is located
from Martin TN south to TUP. This line will have the potential to
produce thunderstorm wind gusts up to 50 kts at TUP through 14Z.
Otherwise, rain will gradually come to an end later today. IFR
conditions should improve to MVFR conditions later this morning
into the afternoon. Confidence remains low with clearing as model
soundings suggest low level moisture will become trapped below a
strong subsidence inversion leading to a persistent stratus layer.
Gusty south winds will veer west/northwest with frontal passage
and become light later tonight.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-
     Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for Alcorn-Benton
     MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee
     MS-Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
429 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
429 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid South today with
the threat gradually shifting east of the Mississippi River as a
strong cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Damaging winds is the primary severe threat along with a potential
for large hail and a few tornadoes.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect as heavy rainfall is expected
across the area. Rainfall amounts will average between 2-3 inches
with higher amounts.

In addition, a Wind Advisory remains in effect across the Mid-
South today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any severe weather reports to the National Weather
Service in Memphis.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
600 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

TNZ052>054-090-091-111245-
Hardeman TN-Henderson TN-Chester TN-Madison TN-McNairy TN-
600 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 645 AM CST
FOR...

Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Henderson County in western Tennessee...
Chester County in western Tennessee...
Madison County in western Tennessee...
McNairy County in western Tennessee...

At 600 AM CST...strong thunderstorms producing wind gusts of 50 to 55
mph was located along a line extending from near Jackson to near
Canaan. Movement was east at 40 mph.

People in Hardeman...southwestern Henderson...Chester...Madison and
McNairy Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3499 8847 3499 8916 3568 8904 3567 8902
      3568 8901 3573 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 1200Z 267DEG 33KT 3567 8889 3501 8909

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SUMNER                  33.97N  90.37W
01/11/2020                   TALLAHATCHIE       MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
            WESTERN TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY INCLUDING TUTWILER, SUMNER
            ,AND WEBB. A TRAIN CAR WAS PUSHED OFF THE TRACKS IN
            SUMNER.

&&

MGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GLEASON                 36.22N  88.61W
01/11/2020                   WEAKLEY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO A FEW HOMES IN THE GLEASON AREA.

&&

MGW

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE TROY               36.35N  89.15W
01/11/2020                   OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND A HOME WAS DAMAGED ON KEY ROAD.
            POWERLINES DOWN IN THE AREA.

&&

MJ

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