River Flood Warning 22, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/

DISCUSSION...
A line of storms is moving through the Mid-South at this time and
will continue to move east this morning. Expect most of the severe
weather will be out of the area by early afternoon. We have had
reports of damage from this line already this morning. Expect that
it will be able to continue to produce some damaging winds as it
moves east. Also there is enough shear/helicity that storms are
capable of producing a tornado or two.

Gusty winds will continue after the front moves through as surface
low has good gradient winds till tonight. The air mass behind the
cold front will bring in some cold air, yet temperatures will be
near normal.

In general models are in good agreement with the systems for the
next week.

By the beginning of the week, the Mid-South returns to southwest
flow aloft and a weak warm front moves through the area which
allows the temperatures to warm up again. This warm front is ahead
of a couple of low pressure systems that will bring moisture back
into the area. Tuesday into Wednesday look to be better chances
for rain as a low moves just to the north of the area and another
cold front moves through on Wednesday.

The cold front on Wednesday at this time doesn't look as strong as
this mornings frontal system. However, the area will get another
round of rain. Precipitable waters for this next storm are only
around 1 inch. (Compared to the 1.5 or more from this morning and
today.)

The cold front on Wednesday will usher in another period of cold
air into the region. TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

As of 12Z...Line of strong to severe thunderstorms is located
from Martin TN south to TUP. This line will have the potential to
produce thunderstorm wind gusts up to 50 kts at TUP through 14Z.
Otherwise, rain will gradually come to an end later today. IFR
conditions should improve to MVFR conditions later this morning
into the afternoon. Confidence remains low with clearing as model
soundings suggest low level moisture will become trapped below a
strong subsidence inversion leading to a persistent stratus layer.
Gusty south winds will veer west/northwest with frontal passage
and become light later tonight.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-
     Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for Alcorn-Benton
     MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee
     MS-Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
429 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
429 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid South today with
the threat gradually shifting east of the Mississippi River as a
strong cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Damaging winds is the primary severe threat along with a potential
for large hail and a few tornadoes.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect as heavy rainfall is expected
across the area. Rainfall amounts will average between 2-3 inches
with higher amounts.

In addition, a Wind Advisory remains in effect across the Mid-
South today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any severe weather reports to the National Weather
Service in Memphis.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
807 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS  35.14N  90.03W
01/11/2020                   SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AT BAPTIST COLLEGE OF HEALTH SCIENCE ON
            UNION AVE

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
823 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CORINTH                 34.94N  88.52W
01/11/2020                   ALCORN             MS   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

WOODALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
833 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PARIS                   36.30N  88.31W
01/11/2020                   HENRY              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS BLOCKED BY DOWNED TREES ACROSS THE COUNTY,
            SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

WOODALL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
901 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

MSZ023-024-111545-
Monroe MS-Chickasaw MS-
901 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 945 AM CST
FOR...

Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi...
Southeastern Chickasaw County in northeastern Mississippi...

At 901 AM CST...strong thunderstorms producing wind gusts up to 50
mph was located along a line extending from near Trebloc to Pala Alto
to near Starkville. Movement was east at 55 mph.

People in Monroe and southeastern Chickasaw Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3367 8849 3368 8872 3381 8872 3381 8893
      3387 8894 3408 8820 3375 8825 3374 8833
      3372 8833 3368 8837 3369 8839 3367 8842
      3365 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 250DEG 49KT 3376 8885 3369 8880 3353 8886

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
904 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW ALGOMA            34.14N  89.06W
01/11/2020                   PONTOTOC           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO CARPORT AND STORAGE BUILDING. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

WOODALL

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