Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
622 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020/

DISCUSSION...
A line of storms is moving through the Mid-South at this time and
will continue to move east this morning. Expect most of the severe
weather will be out of the area by early afternoon. We have had
reports of damage from this line already this morning. Expect that
it will be able to continue to produce some damaging winds as it
moves east. Also there is enough shear/helicity that storms are
capable of producing a tornado or two.

Gusty winds will continue after the front moves through as surface
low has good gradient winds till tonight. The air mass behind the
cold front will bring in some cold air, yet temperatures will be
near normal.

In general models are in good agreement with the systems for the
next week.

By the beginning of the week, the Mid-South returns to southwest
flow aloft and a weak warm front moves through the area which
allows the temperatures to warm up again. This warm front is ahead
of a couple of low pressure systems that will bring moisture back
into the area. Tuesday into Wednesday look to be better chances
for rain as a low moves just to the north of the area and another
cold front moves through on Wednesday.

The cold front on Wednesday at this time doesn't look as strong as
this mornings frontal system. However, the area will get another
round of rain. Precipitable waters for this next storm are only
around 1 inch. (Compared to the 1.5 or more from this morning and
today.)

The cold front on Wednesday will usher in another period of cold
air into the region. TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs

As of 12Z...Line of strong to severe thunderstorms is located
from Martin TN south to TUP. This line will have the potential to
produce thunderstorm wind gusts up to 50 kts at TUP through 14Z.
Otherwise, rain will gradually come to an end later today. IFR
conditions should improve to MVFR conditions later this morning
into the afternoon. Confidence remains low with clearing as model
soundings suggest low level moisture will become trapped below a
strong subsidence inversion leading to a persistent stratus layer.
Gusty south winds will veer west/northwest with frontal passage
and become light later tonight.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Clay-Craighead-Crittenden-
     Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-Poinsett-St.
     Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

     Wind Advisory until noon CST today for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for Alcorn-Benton
     MS-Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee
     MS-Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
429 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-121230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
429 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid South today with
the threat gradually shifting east of the Mississippi River as a
strong cold front moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Damaging winds is the primary severe threat along with a potential
for large hail and a few tornadoes.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect as heavy rainfall is expected
across the area. Rainfall amounts will average between 2-3 inches
with higher amounts.

In addition, a Wind Advisory remains in effect across the Mid-
South today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any severe weather reports to the National Weather
Service in Memphis.

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