Special Weather Statement, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

The main forecast challenges through early week are thunder chances,
including severe potential. A warm front is bisecting the forecast
area today and will likely hang around through tomorrow, which will
help provide forcing for thunderstorms.

Synopsis/Today... As of 19z, southwest Nebraska was primarily in
southeast surface flow while the northern Sandhills were east to
light northeasterly. Significant moisture pooling was also occurring
in the Platte River Valley with dew points reaching the mid 60s.
Scattered rain showers traversed far northern Nebraska since this
morning, while bouts of clearing were experienced in the south.

This evening and tonight... Expecting some convective initiation in
the panhandle sometime around 23z near the surface low and possibly
along the warm front into the southern Sandhills. Early development
will likely be isolated to scattered in nature, with the capability
of growing into supercells. RAP mesoanalysis indicates ample
instability south of the front and decent deep layer shear to the
north. However, shear may increase this evening across the south as
a weak shortwave works off the Rockies. Forecast soundings indicate
veering winds in the lowest 3km and CAPE originating above the mixed
layer. Hail will probably be the bigger threat while convective mode
is still discrete. This also presents a non-zero tornado threat,
primarily in the far western zones. Toward sunset, cloud layer winds
become more aligned with the boundary orientation, and cells become
cold pool dominated as they progress eastward. While shear may still
be borderline for an organized widespread MCS, most CAMs are
suggesting at least a couple clusters or mini complexes. Thinking
wind and heavy rain will be the bigger threats in the latter stages,
especially as DCAPE values remain above 1000 j/kg and PWATs near
90%ile of climo. Made little change to previous forecast regarding
min temps with upper 50s northwest to lower 60s elsewhere.

Monday and Monday night... The surface low slowly meanders across
the High Plains, dragging the warm/quasi-stationary front with it.
Fairly significant discrepancies exist in the short range solutions
regarding precipitation chances during the day. Certainly can't rule
out scattered activity, similar to the far north experienced today,
with the front providing forcing and abundant moisture still in
play. Not expecting widespread activity early on, in the wake of
tonight's anticipated storms and instability being at a relative
minimum. Later in the afternoon and evening, when the atmosphere has
time to rejuvenate, most of the thunderstorms should redevelop. Deep
layer shear will be marginal, on the order of 30 kts, while mid
level lapse rates barely push 7C/km. The strongest forcing will be
confined to western Neb near the sfc low and where the greatest low
level upslope flow takes place. Although severe parameters don't
appear great, agree with SPC analysis that some potential still
exists. Max temps were lowered a smidge to lower 80s north and mid
80s south to account for weak CAA at H85 and potential cloud
cover.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Tuesday and beyond... Broad northwest flow transitions to
southwest this week as the upper ridge regains strength over the
southern and central Plains. Closer to the surface, the thermal
ridge returns to the High Plains with strong southerly flow and
H85 temps approaching 30C. So after a brief retrieve from the
summer scorcher, highs should reach the mid/upper 90s once again
to round out the week. The highest precip chances exist early in
the week during the upper ridge transition and with a surface
front in the vicinity. The next best potential comes closer to the
weekend with a weak cool front or surface trough passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

 Thunderstorms will begin to move into western and southwest
Nebraska this evening. Confidence is high enough that they have
been included in the LBF and VTN TAF's. Thunderstorms should clear
out of the area after midnight with stratus expected to develop
behind the thunderstorm activity. Probability is fairly high that
IFR conditions will occur across portions of southwest Nebraska
including the LBF TAF. Farther north ceilings are expected to be a
bit higher with MVFR conditions expected across northern Nebraska
including the VTN TAF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Meltzer/Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
320 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
320 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 /220 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
evening. This greatest threat for severe weather is generally
along and west of a line from Merriman to Broken Bow. Large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.
Localized minor flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Thunderstorms are possible Monday through Thursday. There is a
risk for a few severe thunderstorms Monday, especially across
northwest Nebraska. Later outlooks will evaluate the threat for
severe storms the remainder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to relay any severe weather report to the
National Weather Service in North Platte.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Taylor

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
734 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ022-200215-
Garden NE-
734 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM MDT...

At 733 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lisco, or 10 miles northwest of Oshkosh, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oshkosh, Lisco, Bluewater Battlefield State Historical Park, Dogtown
Flats, Sugar Loaf Hill and Rackett.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4154 10263 4156 10263 4164 10245 4167 10214
      4137 10214 4135 10259 4153 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 259DEG 18KT 4148 10253

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
900 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ006-007-009-010-200245-
Holt NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-Boyd NE-
900 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROCK...NORTHERN HOLT...
SOUTHEASTERN KEYA PAHA AND SOUTHERN BOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 900 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Butte to 6 miles north of Bassett.
Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bassett, Spencer, Atkinson, Stuart, Butte, Newport, Naper, Bristow,
Dustin, Scottville, Twin Lakes State Wildlife Management Area,
Redbird State Wildlife Management Area, Hull Lake State Wildlife
Management Area, Mariaville, Pony Lake, Spencer Dam, Midway, Dorsey,
Parshall Bridge State Wildlife Management Area and Anncar.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 164 and 182.
 Highway 20 between mile markers 256 and 294.
 Highway 281 between mile markers 192 and 214.
 Highway 12 near mile marker 81, between mile markers 87 and 133.

LAT...LON 4277 9830 4268 9831 4229 9953 4276 9968
      4300 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 304DEG 29KT 4288 9890 4267 9957

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
904 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             11 S TRYON              41.40N 100.92W
07/19/2020  E1.75 INCH       MCPHERSON          NE   PUBLIC

&&

SMELTZER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
812 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ004-094-200245-
Sheridan NE-Western Cherry NE-
812 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CHERRY AND
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM MDT...

At 812 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles southeast of Gordon, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Indian Hill and Highway 61 crossing the Snake River.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 185 and 208.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of and north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4261 10207 4273 10188 4261 10145 4234 10175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 301DEG 10KT 4259 10185

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
814 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ004-200245-
Sheridan NE-
814 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHERRY AND EAST CENTRAL
SHERIDAN COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM MDT...

At 814 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles north of Ellsworth, or 23 miles south of Rushville, moving east
at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Diamond Lake, Smith Lake State Wildlife Management Area, Billys Lake,
Wolf Hill and Argo Hill.

This includes Highway 250 between mile markers 17 and 30.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of and north central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4246 10252 4252 10207 4223 10205 4228 10251
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 267DEG 14KT 4239 10232

Snively

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
925 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ036-059-200300-
McPherson-Lincoln-
925 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES...

At 924 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles north of
Hershey, or 14 miles south of Tryon, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Lincoln and southeastern McPherson Counties.

This includes Highway 97 between mile markers 4 and 22.

LAT...LON 4146 10111 4146 10084 4116 10078 4117 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 337DEG 14KT 4134 10097

Taylor