Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS North Platte, NE

013 
WWUS53 KLBF 200153
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
753 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEC029-200215-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-200720T0215Z/
Chase NE-
753 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHERN CHASE COUNTY...

At 753 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Enders
Reservoir State Recreation Area, or near Imperial, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial, Enders, Enders Reservoir State Recreation Area, Champion,
Crete, Center Dam Campground, Wanamaker State Wildfire Management
Area, Area A Campground and Church Grove Campground.

This includes Highway 61 between mile markers 25 and 42.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10194 4049 10188 4055 10171 4053 10152
      4036 10134 4035 10135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 280DEG 24KT 4044 10162 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Snively

271 
WWUS53 KLBF 200209
SVSLBF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
809 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEC029-200219-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-200720T0215Z/
Chase NE-
809 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CHASE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 815 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4035 10194 4049 10188 4055 10171 4053 10152
      4036 10134 4035 10135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0209Z 270DEG 26KT 4040 10148 

$$

Snively

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

The main forecast challenges through early week are thunder chances,
including severe potential. A warm front is bisecting the forecast
area today and will likely hang around through tomorrow, which will
help provide forcing for thunderstorms.

Synopsis/Today... As of 19z, southwest Nebraska was primarily in
southeast surface flow while the northern Sandhills were east to
light northeasterly. Significant moisture pooling was also occurring
in the Platte River Valley with dew points reaching the mid 60s.
Scattered rain showers traversed far northern Nebraska since this
morning, while bouts of clearing were experienced in the south.

This evening and tonight... Expecting some convective initiation in
the panhandle sometime around 23z near the surface low and possibly
along the warm front into the southern Sandhills. Early development
will likely be isolated to scattered in nature, with the capability
of growing into supercells. RAP mesoanalysis indicates ample
instability south of the front and decent deep layer shear to the
north. However, shear may increase this evening across the south as
a weak shortwave works off the Rockies. Forecast soundings indicate
veering winds in the lowest 3km and CAPE originating above the mixed
layer. Hail will probably be the bigger threat while convective mode
is still discrete. This also presents a non-zero tornado threat,
primarily in the far western zones. Toward sunset, cloud layer winds
become more aligned with the boundary orientation, and cells become
cold pool dominated as they progress eastward. While shear may still
be borderline for an organized widespread MCS, most CAMs are
suggesting at least a couple clusters or mini complexes. Thinking
wind and heavy rain will be the bigger threats in the latter stages,
especially as DCAPE values remain above 1000 j/kg and PWATs near
90%ile of climo. Made little change to previous forecast regarding
min temps with upper 50s northwest to lower 60s elsewhere.

Monday and Monday night... The surface low slowly meanders across
the High Plains, dragging the warm/quasi-stationary front with it.
Fairly significant discrepancies exist in the short range solutions
regarding precipitation chances during the day. Certainly can't rule
out scattered activity, similar to the far north experienced today,
with the front providing forcing and abundant moisture still in
play. Not expecting widespread activity early on, in the wake of
tonight's anticipated storms and instability being at a relative
minimum. Later in the afternoon and evening, when the atmosphere has
time to rejuvenate, most of the thunderstorms should redevelop. Deep
layer shear will be marginal, on the order of 30 kts, while mid
level lapse rates barely push 7C/km. The strongest forcing will be
confined to western Neb near the sfc low and where the greatest low
level upslope flow takes place. Although severe parameters don't
appear great, agree with SPC analysis that some potential still
exists. Max temps were lowered a smidge to lower 80s north and mid
80s south to account for weak CAA at H85 and potential cloud
cover.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Tuesday and beyond... Broad northwest flow transitions to
southwest this week as the upper ridge regains strength over the
southern and central Plains. Closer to the surface, the thermal
ridge returns to the High Plains with strong southerly flow and
H85 temps approaching 30C. So after a brief retrieve from the
summer scorcher, highs should reach the mid/upper 90s once again
to round out the week. The highest precip chances exist early in
the week during the upper ridge transition and with a surface
front in the vicinity. The next best potential comes closer to the
weekend with a weak cool front or surface trough passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

 Thunderstorms will begin to move into western and southwest
Nebraska this evening. Confidence is high enough that they have
been included in the LBF and VTN TAF's. Thunderstorms should clear
out of the area after midnight with stratus expected to develop
behind the thunderstorm activity. Probability is fairly high that
IFR conditions will occur across portions of southwest Nebraska
including the LBF TAF. Farther north ceilings are expected to be a
bit higher with MVFR conditions expected across northern Nebraska
including the VTN TAF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Meltzer/Taylor

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
320 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-202030-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-
Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-
Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
320 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020 /220 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and
north central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
evening. This greatest threat for severe weather is generally
along and west of a line from Merriman to Broken Bow. Large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards.
Localized minor flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

Thunderstorms are possible Monday through Thursday. There is a
risk for a few severe thunderstorms Monday, especially across
northwest Nebraska. Later outlooks will evaluate the threat for
severe storms the remainder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to relay any severe weather report to the
National Weather Service in North Platte.

&&

Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at
http://www.weather.gov/northplatte

Taylor

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
739 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 NNW TRYON            41.73N 101.04W
07/19/2020  E70 MPH          MCPHERSON          NE   PUBLIC

            60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

SJACOBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
653 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ022-200145-
Garden NE-
653 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GARDEN COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM MDT...

At 652 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Lisco, or 21 miles northwest of Oshkosh, moving east
at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lisco, Crescent Lake National Wildlife Refuge, Richardson Lake,
Mumper, Dogtown Flats and Sugar Loaf Hill.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4172 10264 4181 10242 4154 10230 4144 10264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 250DEG 14KT 4162 10266

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
806 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             5 N TRYON               41.63N 100.94W
07/19/2020  E1.00 INCH       MCPHERSON          NE   PUBLIC

&&

SMELTZER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
817 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             2 E TRYON               41.56N 100.91W
07/19/2020  M2.00 INCH       MCPHERSON          NE   PUBLIC

            PING PONG TO HEN EGG SIZE HAIL.

&&

SJACOBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
819 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

NEZ006-008>010-200200-
Brown NE-Holt NE-Rock NE-Keya Paha NE-
819 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ROCK...NORTHEASTERN
BROWN...NORTHWESTERN HOLT AND CENTRAL KEYA PAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

At 819 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springview, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springview, Burton, Keller Park State Recreation Area, Thomas Creek
State Wildlife Management Area, Mariaville, Pine Glen State Wildlife
Refuge and Meadville.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 183 between mile markers 201 and 225.
 Highway 12 near mile marker 40, and between mile markers 44 and 72.

LAT...LON 4264 9913 4264 9980 4299 9997 4300 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 308DEG 18KT 4290 9970

Snively

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
824 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 W TRYON               41.56N 101.00W
07/19/2020                   MCPHERSON          NE   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

SJACOBS