Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Jackson, MS

956 
WWUS54 KJAN 111101
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
501 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ARC017-LAC067-083-111111-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200111T1130Z/
Chicot AR-Morehouse LA-Richland LA-
501 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHICOT COUNTY...
SOUTH CENTRAL MOREHOUSE AND NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND PARISHES IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CST for southeastern
Arkansas...and north central and northwestern Mississippi. A Tornado
Watch also remains in effect until 900 AM CST for northeastern
Louisiana...and central and west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3300 9121 3304 9113 3308 9114 3326 9098
      3327 9056 3330 9056 3332 9045 3324 9043
      3254 9064 3262 9069 3257 9073 3257 9086
      3251 9086 3251 9097 3258 9096 3254 9123
      3254 9145 3255 9146 3258 9158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1101Z 244DEG 42KT 3322 9089 3273 9100 

$$

LAC035-123-MSC053-055-125-151-163-111130-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-200111T1130Z/
East Carroll LA-West Carroll LA-Washington MS-Yazoo MS-Issaquena MS-
Humphreys MS-Sharkey MS-
501 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CST
FOR EAST CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST CARROLL PARISHES...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...WESTERN YAZOO...ISSAQUENA...HUMPHREYS AND
SHARKEY COUNTIES...

At 501 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Estill to near Fitler, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Hollandale and Estill around 505 AM CST.
  Darlove around 510 AM CST.
  Rolling Fork around 515 AM CST.
  Isola around 520 AM CST.
  Holly Bluff around 525 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Mayersville, Silver City, Cary, Louise, Pioneer and Epps.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CST for southeastern
Arkansas...and north central and northwestern Mississippi. A Tornado
Watch also remains in effect until 900 AM CST for northeastern
Louisiana...and central and west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3300 9121 3304 9113 3308 9114 3326 9098
      3327 9056 3330 9056 3332 9045 3324 9043
      3254 9064 3262 9069 3257 9073 3257 9086
      3251 9086 3251 9097 3258 9096 3254 9123
      3254 9145 3255 9146 3258 9158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1101Z 244DEG 42KT 3322 9089 3273 9100 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
326 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...

Much anticipated severe weather event is beginning to unfold across
the region this morning. A line of severe thunderstorms is moving
through southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and barreling toward
Mississippi. Ahead of this, some warm advection showers continue to
affect eastern portions of the state. Tornado Watches are now in
effect for the western part of the forecast area, with locations
closer to the eastern part of the state likely needing a watch
closer to daybreak.

Thinking remains the same with the system as it passes through the
region. More than enough shear, on the order of 60kts, is present as
well as 500-600 m2/s2 helicity, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. All of
these parameters along with strong forcing from the incoming front
and negatively tilted trough will be enough to bring widespread
damaging winds to the region with embedded QLCS tornadoes. It won't
be out of the question for there to be a strong tornado with any
that does develop in this environment. Discrete storms ahead of the
squall line are looking increasingly less likely but if one does
develop, this would also bring potential for a strong tornado.
Timing on this line remains roughly the same with it just now
entering the western edge of my forecast area, tracking into the I-
55 corridor by around 9am  and toward the AL/MS state line by noon.
While this squall line should be fairly progressive, it could
produce a quick 1 to 3 inches of rainfall given the anomalous amount
of moisture present. Will continue with limited risk for flooding.
Some light lingering precipitation could occur behind the line but
overall drying conditions should occur fairly quickly and dry
weather will occur tonight.

Outside of the line of storms, southerly gradient winds have been
strong overnight with 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds and gusts to
near 40 mph at times. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through the
afternoon for this reason and these winds could bring down trees or
power lines, even without thunderstorms. Temperatures today will be
warm early but cool with the passage of the cold front. A cooler
night will be in store for tonight with overnight lows in the mid
30s to lower 40s. /28/

Sunday night through Friday night...High pressure will prevail
across the area on Sunday, but as the surface high shifts east, the
flow will once again swing back around to the southeast. The frontal
boundary will push back north as a warm front Sunday night into
Monday as a short wave moves into the area. Showers/storms will
move into the southeast Sunday night and continue to spread
northward through the day into the evening hours. Showers will
continue to be possible overnight as the boundary stalls across
the delta. Another short wave will move across the area on Tuesday
with another round of storms. The global models indicate steep
mid level lapse rates on Tuesday, ranging from 6.5- 7.5 C/KM. This
combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s and decent shear, may kick
off strong to possibly severe storms on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday
will climb into the 70s, with lows in the 50s/60s Tuesday night.

The pattern will change very little on Wednesday with a continued
chance for showers, as moist southerly flow continues. The GFS/ECMWF
are in decent agreement of a stronger cold front dropping south
across the area Wednesday night into Thursday, with another round of
showers/storms. The front will usher in drier/cooler air for
Thursday and into Friday, but yet another short wave/cold front will
move into the area Friday night. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
Widespread MVFR cigs with occasional IFR cigs were reported at
530Z. Sites in the nw also reported se wind with gusts 25-30kts.
MVFR conditions will prevail through Saturday afternoon along with
gusts up to 60 mph as a band of strong to severe TSRA move across
the area. MVFR cigs will persist into Saturday evening in the
north while conditions improve to VFR elsewhere. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  37  64  45 /  96   4   6  36
Meridian      72  40  66  48 /  98   9  11  54
Vicksburg     67  37  62  44 /  98   3   5  25
Hattiesburg   71  41  67  52 /  98   4  15  66
Natchez       67  38  64  46 /  98   3   6  46
Greenville    63  35  57  42 /  97   5   1   8
Greenwood     68  36  60  42 /  95   7   3  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

15/28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-121030-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong
tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce
widespread damaging winds up to 80 mph and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023-MSZ019-034-040-041-121030-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
Sunflower-Washington-Issaquena-Sharkey-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong
tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce
widespread damaging winds up to 80 mph and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-121030-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce widespread damaging winds up to 70 mph
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

MSZ025>027-035-036-042-047-053-059-060-121030-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Humphreys-Holmes-Yazoo-Warren-Claiborne-
Jefferson-Adams-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce widespread damaging winds up to 70 mph
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

LAZ024>026-121030-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce widespread damaging winds up to 70 mph
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HAMBURG                 33.23N 91.80W
01/11/2020                   ASHLEY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE TOWN
            OF HAMBURG.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW PARKDALE           33.17N 91.60W
01/11/2020                   ASHLEY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 8 BETWEEN HAMBURG AND
            PARKDALE.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW METCALFE          33.44N 91.04W
01/11/2020                   WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 2 INJ ***
            TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE WITH 2 INJURIES. DEBRIS
            BLOCKING THE ROADWAY.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
420 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E GREENVILLE          33.41N 91.04W
01/11/2020                   WASHINGTON         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
            PORTION OF GREENVILLE WITH SEVERAL ON HOMES.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PACE                    33.79N 90.86W
01/11/2020                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 8 IN PACE.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
429 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N RENOVA              33.80N 90.72W
01/11/2020                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HWY 61 JUST
            NORTH OF CLEVELAND.

&&

TW