Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Jackson, MS

779 
WWUS54 KJAN 111626
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1026 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

MSC019-111635-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-200111T1645Z/
Choctaw MS-
1026 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened and 
moved out of the area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CST for northeastern
and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3357 8827 3293 8888 3294 8905 3356 8902
      3361 8902 3380 8872 3368 8872 3367 8850
      3365 8851 3369 8837 3375 8832 3374 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 221DEG 78KT 3362 8887 3352 8870 3338 8862 

$$

MSC025-087-103-105-159-111645-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-200111T1645Z/
Noxubee MS-Oktibbeha MS-Winston MS-Clay MS-Lowndes MS-
1026 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN NOXUBEE...OKTIBBEHA...EASTERN WINSTON...CLAY AND
LOWNDES COUNTIES...

At 1025 AM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Griffith to near Muldrow to near Crawford, moving
northeast at 90 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  West Point around 1030 AM CST.
  Columbus and Waverly around 1035 AM CST.
  Columbus AFB, Kolola Springs and Steens around 1040 AM CST.
  Caledonia around 1045 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Artesia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CST for northeastern
and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3357 8827 3293 8888 3294 8905 3356 8902
      3361 8902 3380 8872 3368 8872 3367 8850
      3365 8851 3369 8837 3375 8832 3374 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 221DEG 78KT 3362 8887 3352 8870 3338 8862 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HJS

346 
WWUS54 KJAN 111638
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1038 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

MSC025-087-103-105-159-111648-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-200111T1645Z/
Noxubee MS-Oktibbeha MS-Winston MS-Clay MS-Lowndes MS-
1038 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NOXUBEE...
OKTIBBEHA...EASTERN WINSTON...CLAY AND LOWNDES COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 1045 AM CST...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CST for northeastern
and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3357 8827 3293 8888 3294 8905 3356 8902
      3361 8902 3380 8872 3368 8872 3367 8850
      3365 8851 3369 8837 3375 8832 3374 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 221DEG 78KT 3378 8871 3368 8854 3354 8846 

$$

HJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
606 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SEVERE STORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Severe thunderstorms are moving through the region this morning
and will continue to from west to east through 18Z. This will make
for very messy flying conditions during this time. Ceilings will
be MVFR or lower for most of the day. There could be a small
window of time where VFR ceilings are achieved late this afternoon
before more MVFR to IFR ceilings resume overnight. Winds ahead of
the line of storms will be gusty out of the south around 15-25kts
sustained and gusts to near 40kts. With storms, winds could gust
to near 60kts. Winds will gradually diminish this evening, with
speeds dropping to 10kts or less overnight. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...

Much anticipated severe weather event is beginning to unfold across
the region this morning. A line of severe thunderstorms is moving
through southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and barreling toward
Mississippi. Ahead of this, some warm advection showers continue to
affect eastern portions of the state. Tornado Watches are now in
effect for the western part of the forecast area, with locations
closer to the eastern part of the state likely needing a watch
closer to daybreak.

Thinking remains the same with the system as it passes through the
region. More than enough shear, on the order of 60kts, is present as
well as 500-600 m2/s2 helicity, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. All of
these parameters along with strong forcing from the incoming front
and negatively tilted trough will be enough to bring widespread
damaging winds to the region with embedded QLCS tornadoes. It won't
be out of the question for there to be a strong tornado with any
that does develop in this environment. Discrete storms ahead of the
squall line are looking increasingly less likely but if one does
develop, this would also bring potential for a strong tornado.
Timing on this line remains roughly the same with it just now
entering the western edge of my forecast area, tracking into the I-
55 corridor by around 9am  and toward the AL/MS state line by noon.
While this squall line should be fairly progressive, it could
produce a quick 1 to 3 inches of rainfall given the anomalous amount
of moisture present. Will continue with limited risk for flooding.
Some light lingering precipitation could occur behind the line but
overall drying conditions should occur fairly quickly and dry
weather will occur tonight.

Outside of the line of storms, southerly gradient winds have been
strong overnight with 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds and gusts to
near 40 mph at times. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through the
afternoon for this reason and these winds could bring down trees or
power lines, even without thunderstorms. Temperatures today will be
warm early but cool with the passage of the cold front. A cooler
night will be in store for tonight with overnight lows in the mid
30s to lower 40s. /28/

Sunday night through Friday night...High pressure will prevail
across the area on Sunday, but as the surface high shifts east, the
flow will once again swing back around to the southeast. The frontal
boundary will push back north as a warm front Sunday night into
Monday as a short wave moves into the area. Showers/storms will
move into the southeast Sunday night and continue to spread
northward through the day into the evening hours. Showers will
continue to be possible overnight as the boundary stalls across
the delta. Another short wave will move across the area on Tuesday
with another round of storms. The global models indicate steep
mid level lapse rates on Tuesday, ranging from 6.5- 7.5 C/KM. This
combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s and decent shear, may kick
off strong to possibly severe storms on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday
will climb into the 70s, with lows in the 50s/60s Tuesday night.

The pattern will change very little on Wednesday with a continued
chance for showers, as moist southerly flow continues. The GFS/ECMWF
are in decent agreement of a stronger cold front dropping south
across the area Wednesday night into Thursday, with another round of
showers/storms. The front will usher in drier/cooler air for
Thursday and into Friday, but yet another short wave/cold front will
move into the area Friday night. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  37  64  45 /  96   4   6  36
Meridian      72  40  66  48 /  98   9  11  54
Vicksburg     67  37  62  44 /  98   3   5  25
Hattiesburg   71  41  67  52 /  98   4  15  66
Natchez       67  38  64  46 /  98   3   6  46
Greenville    63  35  57  42 /  97   5   1   8
Greenwood     68  36  60  42 /  95   7   3  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-121030-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong
tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce
widespread damaging winds up to 80 mph and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023-MSZ019-034-040-041-121030-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
Sunflower-Washington-Issaquena-Sharkey-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong
tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce
widespread damaging winds up to 80 mph and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-121030-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce widespread damaging winds up to 70 mph
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

MSZ025>027-035-036-042-047-053-059-060-121030-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Humphreys-Holmes-Yazoo-Warren-Claiborne-
Jefferson-Adams-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce widespread damaging winds up to 70 mph
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

LAZ024>026-121030-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce widespread damaging winds up to 70 mph
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
943 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW CLEM               31.75N 89.83W
01/11/2020                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON MT OLIVE RD.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
944 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE GWINVILLE         31.69N 89.87W
01/11/2020                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON HWY 13.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
956 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE FOREST HILL       32.28N 90.23W
01/11/2020                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIDEO OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG MYRTLEWOOD DR.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S WESSON              31.69N 90.40W
01/11/2020                   COPIAH             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON MISSION HILL RD.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WALNUT GROVE            32.60N 89.46W
01/11/2020                   LEAKE              MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN WALNUT GROVE.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CLINTON                 32.34N 90.33W
01/11/2020                   HINDS              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN CLINTON.

&&

TW