Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Jackson, MS

211 
WGUS54 KJAN 111513
FFWJAN
MSC019-025-105-155-111900-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200111T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
913 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

The National Weather Service in Jackson has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Choctaw County in central Mississippi...
  Oktibbeha County in northeastern Mississippi...
  Eastern Webster County in north central Mississippi...
  Clay County in northeastern Mississippi...

* Until 100 PM CST.

* At 912 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have
  already fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other 
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Starkville, West Point, Montpelier, Maben, Mathiston, Sessums,
  Longview, Cumberland, Griffith, Sherwood, Clarkson, Chester, Pheba,
  Tibbee, Reform, Muldrow, Pala Alto and Mantee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 8861 3350 8867 3334 8867 3335 8927
      3372 8924 3372 8919 3374 8919 3374 8904
      3375 8903 3376 8893 3381 8893 3381 8872
      3368 8872 3368 8855

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

JM

712 
WGUS74 KJAN 111729
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1129 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

MSC019-155-111737-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200111T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw MS-Webster MS-
1129 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND EASTERN
WEBSTER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3351 8861 3350 8867 3334 8867 3335 8909
      3356 8909 3356 8902 3364 8902 3364 8903
      3375 8903 3376 8893 3381 8893 3381 8872
      3368 8872 3368 8855

$$

MSC025-105-111900-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200111T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oktibbeha MS-Clay MS-
1129 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST FOR
OKTIBBEHA AND CLAY COUNTIES...

At 1127 AM CST, emergency management reported flash flooding across 
portions of Clay and Oktibbeha counties. While the heavy rain has 
ended, runoff from the earlier excessive rain will allow for 
lingering flooding and some flash flooding issues.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Starkville, West Point, Montpelier, Maben, Sessums, Pheba, Longview,
Tibbee, Griffith, Muldrow and Pala Alto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3351 8861 3350 8867 3334 8867 3335 8909
      3356 8909 3356 8902 3364 8902 3364 8903
      3375 8903 3376 8893 3381 8893 3381 8872
      3368 8872 3368 8855

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

CME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
606 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

...SEVERE STORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Severe thunderstorms are moving through the region this morning
and will continue to from west to east through 18Z. This will make
for very messy flying conditions during this time. Ceilings will
be MVFR or lower for most of the day. There could be a small
window of time where VFR ceilings are achieved late this afternoon
before more MVFR to IFR ceilings resume overnight. Winds ahead of
the line of storms will be gusty out of the south around 15-25kts
sustained and gusts to near 40kts. With storms, winds could gust
to near 60kts. Winds will gradually diminish this evening, with
speeds dropping to 10kts or less overnight. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...

Much anticipated severe weather event is beginning to unfold across
the region this morning. A line of severe thunderstorms is moving
through southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana and barreling toward
Mississippi. Ahead of this, some warm advection showers continue to
affect eastern portions of the state. Tornado Watches are now in
effect for the western part of the forecast area, with locations
closer to the eastern part of the state likely needing a watch
closer to daybreak.

Thinking remains the same with the system as it passes through the
region. More than enough shear, on the order of 60kts, is present as
well as 500-600 m2/s2 helicity, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE,
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. All of
these parameters along with strong forcing from the incoming front
and negatively tilted trough will be enough to bring widespread
damaging winds to the region with embedded QLCS tornadoes. It won't
be out of the question for there to be a strong tornado with any
that does develop in this environment. Discrete storms ahead of the
squall line are looking increasingly less likely but if one does
develop, this would also bring potential for a strong tornado.
Timing on this line remains roughly the same with it just now
entering the western edge of my forecast area, tracking into the I-
55 corridor by around 9am  and toward the AL/MS state line by noon.
While this squall line should be fairly progressive, it could
produce a quick 1 to 3 inches of rainfall given the anomalous amount
of moisture present. Will continue with limited risk for flooding.
Some light lingering precipitation could occur behind the line but
overall drying conditions should occur fairly quickly and dry
weather will occur tonight.

Outside of the line of storms, southerly gradient winds have been
strong overnight with 15 to 20 mph sustained speeds and gusts to
near 40 mph at times. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through the
afternoon for this reason and these winds could bring down trees or
power lines, even without thunderstorms. Temperatures today will be
warm early but cool with the passage of the cold front. A cooler
night will be in store for tonight with overnight lows in the mid
30s to lower 40s. /28/

Sunday night through Friday night...High pressure will prevail
across the area on Sunday, but as the surface high shifts east, the
flow will once again swing back around to the southeast. The frontal
boundary will push back north as a warm front Sunday night into
Monday as a short wave moves into the area. Showers/storms will
move into the southeast Sunday night and continue to spread
northward through the day into the evening hours. Showers will
continue to be possible overnight as the boundary stalls across
the delta. Another short wave will move across the area on Tuesday
with another round of storms. The global models indicate steep
mid level lapse rates on Tuesday, ranging from 6.5- 7.5 C/KM. This
combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s and decent shear, may kick
off strong to possibly severe storms on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday
will climb into the 70s, with lows in the 50s/60s Tuesday night.

The pattern will change very little on Wednesday with a continued
chance for showers, as moist southerly flow continues. The GFS/ECMWF
are in decent agreement of a stronger cold front dropping south
across the area Wednesday night into Thursday, with another round of
showers/storms. The front will usher in drier/cooler air for
Thursday and into Friday, but yet another short wave/cold front will
move into the area Friday night. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  37  64  45 /  96   4   6  36
Meridian      72  40  66  48 /  98   9  11  54
Vicksburg     67  37  62  44 /  98   3   5  25
Hattiesburg   71  41  67  52 /  98   4  15  66
Natchez       67  38  64  46 /  98   3   6  46
Greenville    63  35  57  42 /  97   5   1   8
Greenwood     68  36  60  42 /  95   7   3  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-121030-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong
tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce
widespread damaging winds up to 80 mph and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023-MSZ019-034-040-041-121030-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
Sunflower-Washington-Issaquena-Sharkey-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong
tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also produce
widespread damaging winds up to 80 mph and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-121030-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce widespread damaging winds up to 70 mph
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

MSZ025>027-035-036-042-047-053-059-060-121030-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Humphreys-Holmes-Yazoo-Warren-Claiborne-
Jefferson-Adams-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce widespread damaging winds up to 70 mph
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

LAZ024>026-121030-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-
427 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Early this morning through this afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly through daybreak

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms may produce widespread damaging winds up to 70 mph
and hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

One to three inches of rain could fall in a short amount of time
as the line of storms moves through the region. Given recent
rainfall and area rivers being high, this could lead to some
localized flooding concerns.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

A few downed trees and power lines are possible due to sustained
winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind gusts up to
50 mph outside of thunderstorms. Travel will also be difficult
for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region early this
morning through today.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
853 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST LINCOLN            31.49N 90.57W
01/11/2020                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS THE WEST
            LINCOLN AREA.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
854 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BOGUE CHITTO            31.44N 90.45W
01/11/2020                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE BOGUE
            CHITTO AREA.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
855 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE WESSON            31.68N 90.34W
01/11/2020                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE LAKE
            LINCOLN AREA.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ESE FOREST HILL       32.26N 90.26W
01/11/2020                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIDEO OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS SUNCREST DR
            NEAR AUTUMN ST. THE ROAD HAS BEEN CLOSED.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
904 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S MARTINSVILLE        31.78N 90.41W
01/11/2020                   COPIAH             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HWY 51.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
906 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW LE FLEURS BLUFF    32.32N 90.17W
01/11/2020                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIDEO OF FLASH FLOODING IN BELHAVEN.

&&

TW