River Flood Warning 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder, but drier, conditions will develop behind the front through
Friday. A swiftly moving system will cross the region on Saturday,
before dry high pressure sets up by Sunday. Another moist cold front
will approach the area slowly from the west during the early to
middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST: Cleared out most of the counties from the Tornado
Watch, as line of deeper convection continues to drift east and
south. Still needs to clear the last tier counties from Greenwood to
Cabarrus counties. The last of the watch in our forecast area should
be able to be cancelled within an hour or so.

On the flooding front, widespread flooding ongoing, with continued
light to moderate rain spreading in from the SW. Rates are only 0.25-
0.5"/hr at most, but these rates may be enough to exacerbate
flooding. The Flash Flood Watch will continue as is.

Later this evening, the stratiform rain shield should gradually
weaken and shift east, ending most of the rain. Runoff will likely
result in continued rises on larger streams and rivers, but the
flash flood threat should subside. Still expect a late-evening fropa
across the mountains, with strong CAA bringing snow levels down to
about 3500 ft by daybreak Friday. Snow showers aren't expected to
really get going until Friday morning. The 850 mb flow will be more
due westerly, so not real ideal for upslope snow showers. But still
could see 1-3" of snow accums along the TN border by end of the day
Friday above 3500 ft. Not quite enough to warrant a winter weather
advisory at this point. Otherwise, Friday will be cool and breezy,
with temps below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
rsday: The low pressure system currently
impacting the area will be moving away by Friday night and will be
replaced briefly by surface high pressure. The high will move
quickly off to the east on Saturday allowing a weak system to impact
the area Saturday afternoon and evening. High pressure will build
back in for Sunday.

Temperatures Friday night will drop into the teens and 20s in the
mountains and the upper 20s to lower 30s in the Piedmont. Winds may
be gusty in the higher mountain elevations. Saturday will be a cool
day as clouds and light precipitation move in. This will be rain
outside the mountains and a mix of rain and snow in the mountains.
It looks like there may be a few inches of snow accumulation at the
higher elevations in the southwest mountains of North Carolina.
Otherwise, any accumulations will be less than 1 inch.

Quiet conditions with seasonable temperatures are expected on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Thursday: A mid level trough will develop across
the southwestern and central parts of the country for the early part
of next week. This will lead to a wet and warm pattern with at least
some risk of flooding. Not much time for details this afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: A line of storms is currently crossing the
KCLT airfield at time of TAF issuance. Expect that to push east
sometime between 18-19z. However, the line may pivot back north
slightly and keep a threat for additional tstms. But I expect the
storms to remain south of the terminal after 19z. The other sites
are generally in the light to moderate rain shield, with variable
amounts of vsby and cig restrictions. Thunderstorms linger near KAND
for the next few hours, but are not expected to reach GMU/GSP. So
the rest of the daylight hours, will see light to moderate
-RA, with generally VFR cigs and MVFR vsby. Cigs are expected to
lower to MVFR (and possibly IFR after sunset. Then conditions should
improve before daybreak, as dry air filters in behind a passing cold
front. VFR conditions with gusty SW winds expected on Friday.

Outlook: Northwest flow may persist near KAVL, but drying is
expected elsewhere on Friday. A quick-moving system will move
through the region on Saturday, with brief restrictions possible,
before drying returns on Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  81%     Med   78%     High  94%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   72%     Med   71%     High  95%     High 100%
KAVL       High  86%     Med   75%     Med   69%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   73%     Med   71%     Low   57%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   67%     Med   74%     High  94%     High 100%
KAND       Med   73%     Med   76%     Med   67%     Med   77%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
233 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-062>065-068>070-
501>510-SCZ001>008-010-011-071945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-Anderson-Abbeville-
233 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-012>014-019-071945-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-York-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-
Greenwood-
233 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 27 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-071945-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-
233 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Snow showers will develop behind the departing cold front late
tonight through Friday. Light snow accumulations are expected across
the mountains, especially at elevations above 3500 feet where a
couple of inches will be possible. Two to four inches of snow will
be possible along the highest ridge tops around the Great Smoky
Mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
205 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W LINCOLNTON          35.48N 81.33W
02/06/2020                   LINCOLN            NC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
207 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE COLUMBUS           35.24N 82.19W
02/06/2020                   POLK               NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER GRAVEL ROADS OFF
            PENIEL ROAD.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
213 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S RUTHERFORDTON       35.34N 81.96W
02/06/2020                   RUTHERFORD         NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            AT LEAST A FOOT OF WATER FLOWING OVER A DRIVEWAY OFF HWY
            221. RESIDENT NOTED THE WATER HAS NOT BEEN THIS HIGH
            SINCE THEY MOVED IN IN 2006.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE LANDRUM           35.18N 82.17W
02/06/2020                   SPARTANBURG        SC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 14 JUST OUTSIDE OF LANDRUM, FLOWING
            RAPIDLY, AND HITTING THE BOTTOM OF THE BRIDGE.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     TORNADO          MATTHEWS                35.12N 80.71W
02/06/2020                   MECKLENBURG        NC   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN MATTHEWS. LIKELY TORNADO.

&&

SWILKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VALE                    35.54N 81.40W
02/06/2020                   LINCOLN            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED TREES DOWN ACROSS A BROAD AREA INCLUDING

            VALE,LAWNDALE, COOKSVILLE AND CASAR. TIME IS AN ESTIMATE.

&&

SWILKINS