Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

322 
WGUS52 KGSP 062324
FFWGSP
GAC105-SCC001-047-070530-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200207T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
624 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Elbert County in northeastern Georgia...
  Abbeville County in Upstate South Carolina...
  Greenwood County in Upstate South Carolina...

* Until 1230 AM EST Friday.

* At 619 PM EST, emergency management reported heavy rain falling
  across the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing. Numerous roads
  have sustained major damage from the flooding.  

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Emergency management and local law enforcement.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other 
           drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Greenwood, Abbeville, Elberton, Ware Shoals, Calhoun Falls, Ninety
  Six, Due West, Lake Secession, Donalds and Cokesbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Numerous roads, parking lots and bridges will be threatened by heavy 
rain and rapidly rising streams and creeks. Please pay close 
attention to road signs indicating a flood-prone area. Obey all 
barricades, even if water is not currently over the road. Barricades 
are in place for your protection and indicate areas where flooding 
can occur rapidly and without warning. Do not attempt to drive 
through flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3397 8218 3402 8224 3397 8231
      3406 8233 3408 8248 3401 8260 3396 8257
      3401 8293 3417 8310 3429 8278 3427 8275
      3421 8274 3448 8232 3433 8217 3424 8198
      3413 8187 3395 8204

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

JPT

055 
WGUS72 KGSP 070230
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
930 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAC105-SCC001-047-070238-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0018.000000T0000Z-200207T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Elbert GA-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
930 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ELBERT...ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

It has been replaced with an Areal Flood Warning that is valid until 
315 AM Friday. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3397 8218 3402 8224 3397 8231
      3406 8233 3408 8248 3401 8260 3396 8257
      3401 8293 3417 8310 3429 8278 3427 8275
      3421 8274 3448 8232 3433 8217 3424 8198
      3413 8187 3395 8204

$$

JPT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1251 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will impact the region today into tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front and strong upper-level disturbance.
Colder, but drier, conditions will develop behind the front through
Friday. A swiftly moving system will cross the region on Saturday,
before dry high pressure sets up by Sunday. Another moist cold front
will approach the area slowly from the west during the early to
middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EST: Cleared out a tier of counties on the western
edge of the Tornado Watch. The convection has produced a cold pool
over most of the forecast area. The exception is the lower Piedmont
southeast of I-85. It is disconcerting that the line has slowed
down, and seems to be pivoting north over central GA and the
Lakelands. This should be a brief ripple, and the cold pool should
win out and push the line out to the south and east by late aftn.
For now, will leave the rest of the watch as is until 5 PM EST this
afternoon.

The same can be said for the Flash Flood Watch. See no reason to
make any changes. Rain continues to fall within the entire watch
area, and rivers and streams continue to rise. Rain rates going
forward should be more on the order of 0.25-0.5"/hr north and west
of the main line of deeper convection. But these rates are enough to
exacerbate flooding.

Otherwise, the ingredients are firmly in place for a very wet and
stormy day across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Water
vapor imagery reveals a prominent 500 mb trough moving across TX/OK
this morning. A tremendous fetch of moisture is evident east of the
trough across the lower MS River Valley and stretching up the
Appalachian mountain chain. Precipitable water values in this plume
are running 1.5 to 1.75 inches, with anomalies some 3+ standard
deviations above normal. A Flash Flood Watch is already in place
across the entire forecast area, with several Warnings now issued as
hydro conditions continue to deteriorate. No changes to the Flash
Flood Watch are planned with the expiration still set at midnight
tonight.

As the base of the trough moves east over the lower MS River Valley
today, lobes of stronger DPVA will shuttle northeast across the
southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills/piedmont. This will
combine with robust upper level divergence associated with the
subtropical jet streak reaching 170+ kt at times to produce
impressive forcing. Waves of better sfc-6km bulk shear will cross
the region ahead of the associated surface cold front, with values
around 70 kt at times. Instability was looking to be the main
limiting factor for widespread severe weather, with sbCAPE values
generally just a few hundred J/kg during the daytime hours, and mid-
level lapse rates rather modest. However, recent RAP runs are now
suggesting some sbCAPEs in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range at times
midday as mid 60s dewpoints approach. Overall, the dynamics are so
strong, and the low-level wind shear so abundant, that the existing
Marginal west to Enhanced east gradient of severe threat looks well
placed for today into this evening. Improving updraft helicity on
the mesoscale models will arrive in the southwest mountains before
daybreak, but better organization seems likely over the eastern half
from 16Z onward as the low-level jet ramps up to 50 to 60 kt. Strong
to severe discrete activity will be possible through the morning
hours, but the pre-frontal line should sharpen up through the day as
mesolows move up the frontal boundary to pose the greatest severe
risk through the afternoon hours, perhaps into the early evening
across I-77.

Anticipate a late evening fropa across the mountains, with the
boundary moving east across the piedmont overnight. Snow levels will
fall from the west through daybreak Friday, with light accumulations
most likely along the higher ridges around the Smokies. Winds will
be gusty through the period, both on the warm advection side today
and the cold advection side tonight, but with gusts generally below
advisory levels (30 to 40 mph) at all but the highest peaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday: With the cold front east of the region by
Friday morning, colder air will continue to spill across the
mountains, with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out at minus 6 or
colder along the spine of the southern Appalachians. Although the
low-level flow will be a less favorable westerly direction for
upslope, orographic lift will still wring out snow showers through
the day, with some high elevations in and around the Smokies seeing
possibly 2 to 4 inches of snow by Friday evening. Accumulations will
be quite terrain dependent, with Advisory or greater snow amounts
limited to mainly above 4000 feet, and very little in the lower
valleys. Will mention in the HWO, but hold off on any Advisories at
present. A brief lull in the moisture is expected on Friday night.
Temperatures will return to below climo values during the period.

The latest model runs continue to show the development of weak low
pressure on Saturday morning as a strong short wave drops down
across the TN Valley into the base of the long wave trof across the
eastern US. The models have shown good run-to-run continuity with
this peculiar feature, blowing up precip over the mtns early in the
day and then moving it slowly off to the E/NE, but the recent trend
is toward lower precip amts possibly because the sfc low looks more
like it will be moving over the OH Valley region on Saturday. It is
worth noting, however, that the operational GFS continues to run at
the low end of the GEFS distribution. The fcst is interesting
because partial thickness remains rather low, the boundary layer
rather cool to start with at onset, and the fcst soundings showing
wet bulb profiles that would support all snow at onset across the
mtns. Eventually, warming takes place in the valleys, but not before
we might get a few hours of light snow, especially if the NAM is
correct. Elevations above about 3k feet would be likely to stay snow
for the duration. Because the QPF has come down in the operational
model guidance, present indications are for an Advisory-level event,
but if we end up closer to the ensemble mean, we could push Warning
criteria at elevations above 3500 feet by Saturday afternoon. East
of the mtns, if the precip can begin early enough in the day, it
could begin as a period of light snow, before an eventual changeover
to rain. This would be somewhat similar to what transpired last
Friday, but the amounts this time would be much less. However, the
latest trend was also to delay the onset by a few hours outside the
mtns. This system lifts out Saturday evening and precip pares back
to the NW flow upslope areas by late evening, and then ends by
daybreak Sunday. Temps should be below normal for this period.

The rest of the weekend should be quiet and dry as a flat upper
ridge moves overhead Sunday, pushing high pressure past, then off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday night. Temperatures should return
to normal. The moisture associated with the next front is not
expected to arrive before daybreak Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Thursday: Fcst confidence starts out decent on
Monday morning with the models in general agreement that another
frontal boundary will gradually sag down across the fcst area as
the upper flow slowly goes WSW under a low amplitude trof/ridge
pattern. This system is not expected to have nearly the same
benefit of moisture flux from the Gulf as our current event,
but there should be enough forcing and deep moisture to afford a
likely precip probability ramping up Monday and then continuing into
Tuesday while the front stalls against the WSW flow aloft. Temps
should be warm enough...about 5-10 deg above normal...that it
should be all rain. Confidence plummets dramatically beyond
Tuesday. The op GFS has a stronger short wave coming through
the nrn stream which develops a stronger frontal wave that lifts
out Tuesday. Because the wave is stronger, the flow amplifies an
eastern trof which drives the front through and we dry out for
the middle of the week, until a srn stream wave ejects and brings
moisture and precip back from the SW for Thursday. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF remains more low amplitude and keeps the frontal boundary
stalled across our region right through the end of the period,
with another wave on Thursday. For the time being, we lean toward
the ECMWF solution, which makes for another wet week with fairly
high precip probs. But, again, confidence beyond Tuesday is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: A line of storms is currently crossing the
KCLT airfield at time of TAF issuance. Expect that to push east
sometime between 18-19z. However, the line may pivot back north
slightly and keep a threat for additional tstms. But I expect the
storms to remain south of the terminal after 19z. The other sites
are generally in the light to moderate rain shield, with variable
amounts of vsby and cig restrictions. Thunderstorms linger near KAND
for the next few hours, but are not expected to reach GMU/GSP. So
the rest of the daylight hours, will see light to moderate
-RA, with generally VFR cigs and MVFR vsby. Cigs are expected to
lower to MVFR (and possibly IFR after sunset. Then conditions should
improve before daybreak, as dry air filters in behind a passing cold
front. VFR conditions with gusty SW winds expected on Friday.

Outlook: Northwest flow may persist near KAVL, but drying is
expected elsewhere on Friday. A quick-moving system will move
through the region on Saturday, with brief restrictions possible,
before drying returns on Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  81%     Med   77%     High  89%     High  94%
KGSP       Med   77%     Med   72%     High  93%     High 100%
KAVL       High  82%     Med   71%     Med   67%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   76%     Med   70%     Med   61%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   74%     Med   74%     High  94%     High 100%
KAND       Med   76%     Med   73%     Med   67%     Med   75%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...HG/PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1215 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ003-006>014-019-071715-
Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
1215 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 27 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop
across the region today through this evening ahead of an advancing
cold front. Some of the thunderstorms may well become strong to
severe, with damaging wind gusts possible in addition to cloud to
ground lightning. A few brief, isolated tornadoes will be possible,
especially along and southeast of Interstate 85 this afternoon and
evening. Plan now for the actions that you will take if Severe
Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches or Warnings are issued today. This
is especially important if you in a mobile home. Make arrangements
now to flee quickly to a nearby, sturdier structure if warnings are
issues for your location.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ018-026-NCZ507>510-SCZ001-002-004-005-071715-
Stephens-Franklin-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
1215 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop
across the region today through this evening ahead of an advancing
cold front. Some of the thunderstorms may well become strong to
severe, with damaging wind gusts possible in addition to cloud to
ground lightning. A few brief, isolated tornadoes will be possible,
especially along and southeast of Interstate 85 this afternoon and
evening. Plan now for the actions that you will take if Severe
Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches or Warnings are issued today. This
is especially important if you in a mobile home. Make arrangements
now to flee quickly to a nearby, sturdier structure if warnings are
issues for your location.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>506-071715-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-
Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
1215 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the
region today ahead of an advancing cold front. Some of the
thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts
possible in addition to cloud to ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Snow showers will develop behind the departing cold front late
tonight through Friday. Light snow accumulations are expected across
the mountains, especially at elevations above 3500 feet where a
couple of inches will be possible. Two to four inches of snow will
be possible along the highest ridge tops around the Great Smoky
Mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1210 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 AM     TORNADO          3 E SPARTANBURG         34.94N 81.88W
02/06/2020                   SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN, SOME ON HOUSES AND SOME
            BLOCKING ROADS. DAMAGE TO SEVERAL ROOFS ALSO. LIKELY
            TORNADO.

&&

SWILKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1218 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 AM     TORNADO          CONCORD                 35.41N 80.59W
02/06/2020                   CABARRUS           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 3 AND THE INTERECTION
            OF OLD AIRPORT ROAD AND HIGHWAY 73. LIKELY TORNADO.

&&

SWILKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1231 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TORNADO          8 NW MOUNT PLEASANT     35.48N 80.54W
02/06/2020                   CABARRUS           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG IRISH POTATO ROAD.
            LIKELY TORNADO.

&&

SWILKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     TORNADO          2 ENE PINEVILLE         35.10N 80.86W
02/06/2020                   MECKLENBURG        NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG PARK ROAD NORTH OF
            PINEVILLE-MATTHEWS ROAD. LIKELY TORNADO.

&&

SWILKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SPARTANBURG             34.94N 81.93W
02/06/2020                   SPARTANBURG        SC   911 CALL CENTER

            COUNTY REPORTS RAINY MILL ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            FROM MOTLOW CREEK. MANY OTHER ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE
            ALSO CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
125 PM EST THU FEB 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HARTWELL                34.35N 82.93W
02/06/2020                   HART               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST TWO DOZEN ROADS WITH WATER OVER THEM, AT LEAST 5
            COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN. TWO HOMES WITH WATER IN THEM, ONE
            RESIDENT HAD TO BE EVACUATED.

&&

TPALMER