Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

979 
WGUS72 KGSP 061108
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
608 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

NCC075-173-061615-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200206T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Swain NC-Graham NC-
608 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM EST FOR
SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...

At 605 AM EST, Automated rain gauges across the warned counties were 
showing rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches since yesterday. Additional 
heavy showers and thunderstorms will result in localized rainfall 
totals up to 6 inches, especially in the higher terrain.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near 
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation 
and other loose materials.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3556 8377 3556 8350
      3566 8335 3566 8330 3569 8322 3567 8318
      3564 8320 3563 8318 3560 8319 3555 8316
      3551 8318 3552 8324 3547 8335 3542 8336
      3533 8334 3522 8397 3529 8403 3531 8404

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

253 
WGUS72 KGSP 061417
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
917 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

NCC075-173-061615-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-200206T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Swain NC-Graham NC-
917 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 AM EST FOR
SWAIN AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...

At 906 AM EST, gauge reports across the warned area have measured 3 
to 4 inches of rain, since rain started yesterday. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly. Additional half inch to one 
inch of rainfall is expected over the next couple of hours. Rainfall 
totals will approach 6 inches in along the favored slopes of the 
high terrain.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Automated gauges and doppler radar estimates.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near 
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation 
and other loose materials.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3556 8377 3556 8350
      3566 8335 3566 8330 3569 8322 3567 8318
      3564 8320 3563 8318 3560 8319 3555 8316
      3551 8318 3552 8324 3547 8335 3542 8336
      3533 8334 3522 8397 3529 8403 3531 8404

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
131 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will impact the region today into tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front and strong upper-level disturbance.
Colder, but drier, conditions will develop behind the front through
Friday. A swiftly moving system will cross the region on Saturday,
before dry high pressure sets up by Sunday. Another moist cold front
will approach the area slowly from the west during the early to
middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EST: The ingredients are in place for an active day
across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Water vapor
imagery displays a prominent 500 mb trough moving across TX/OK early
this morning. A tremendous fetch of moisture is evident east of the
trough across the lower MS River Valley and stretching to the
southern Appalachians and beyond. Precipitable water values in this
plume are running 1.5 to 1.75 inches, some 3+ standard deviations
above climo. The Flash Flood Watch is already in place across the
entire forecast area, and no changes are planned with the expiration
still featured at midnight tonight.

As the base of the trough moves east over the lower MS River Valley
today, lobes of stronger DPVA will shuttle northeast across the
southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills/piedmont. This will
combine with robust upper level divergence associated with the
subtropical jet streak reaching 170+ kt at times. Waves of better
sfc-6km bulk shear will cross the region ahead of the associated
cold front, with values around 70 kt at times. Instability looks to
be the main limiting factor for widespread severe weather, with
sbCAPE values generally just a few hundred J/kg during the daytime
hours, and mid-level lapse rates rather modest. However, the
dynamics are so strong, and the low-level shear so abundant, that
the existing Marginal west to Enhanced east gradient of severe
threat looks well placed for today into this evening. Improving
updraft helicity on the mesoscale models will arrive in the
southwest mountains before daybreak, but better organization seems
likely over the eastern half from 16Z onward as the low level jet
ramps up to 50 to 60 kt. Strong to severe discrete activity will be
possible through the morning hours, but the pre-frontal line should
sharpen up through the day as mesolows move up the frontal boundary
to pose the greatest severe risk through the afternoon hours,
perhaps into the early evening across I-77.

Anticipate a late evening fropa across the mountains, with the
boundary moving east across the piedmont overnight. Snow levels will
fall from the west through daybreak Friday, with light accumulatins
most likely along the higher ridges around the Smokies. Winds will
be gusty through the period, both on the warm advection side today
and the cold advection side tonight, but with gusts generally below
advisory levels (into the 30s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM EST Wednesday: The center of deepening sfc low pressure
will cross the Central Appalachians to the northern Mid-Atlantic
Thursday night, pushing the trailing cold front east of the forecast
area. Precip should start to taper off/shift east Thursday evening,
with lingering showers along the TN border due to increasing
westerly upslope flow. Any ongoing flooding should be transitioning
to more run-off/mainstem river issues after 00z Friday, but the
Flash Flood Watch will go to midnight, due to uncertainty on the
exact timing of precip tapering off. The upslope showers should
transition from rain to snow, as CAA brings down snow levels.
However, it will take some time, and by the time conditions become
ideal for NW flow snow shower activity, moisture will begin to dry
out. Still expect 1-2" of snow above 3500 ft along the TN border,
with possibly higher amounts above 5000 ft. Not expecting any need
for a winter weather advisory. Temps will drop into the 30s in the
mountains, and mainly mid 40s across the piedmont by daybreak Friday.

As cold air slips in behind the departing low, temps will remain
chilly thru the day Friday. Breezy westerly winds will make it feel
even cooler, but at least the skies should clear out east of the TN
border counties. Highs mainly in the 30s to lower 40s in the
mountains and upper 40s to lower 50s in the piedmont.

Friday night thru Saturday night...the 12z suite of model guidance
is in good agreement on a vigorous shortwave streaming through the
mean longwave trough across the eastern CONUS and across the
forecast area. The exact timing of the quick shot of dPVA and
associated precip is trending toward the daylight hours Saturday,
shifting east by Saturday evening. This is important for the lower
valleys and even the piedmont, as thicknesses are so cold, that an
early morning onset could result in precip starting out as snow. But
as it stands, it looks like just elevations above about 3000 ft will
have any snow accum, with the rest of the area just seeing light
rain. QPF with this system is also trending lower, so snow accums
look to be in the 1-2" range. Temps will continue to be at or
slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EST Wednesday: Starting at 12Z Sunday with thickness
heights rising as the 500mb trough moves out over the Atlantic.
Surface high pressure over the East Coast will keep our area dry on
Sunday and into Monday as it moves over the Atlantic.  The next
front is forecast to drift SE from the Ohio River and become
stationary across Tennessee by late Monday.  The front is forecast
to lay out through mid week from Louisiana to eastern PA. Low
pressures will ride NE along this front keeping rain in our
forecast for days.  A trough will dig across the West and creating a
bigger low around eastern Texas Tuesday night. This low moves NE
Wednesday increasing rain over our mountains.  By 12Z Thursday, the
ECMWF has the low over western PA and the more progressive GFS has
this low beyond Maine by 12Z Thursday. The result will be the most
rain over the mountains and somewhat less out over the piedmont
through this forecast period.  Some thunder across the GA and SC
piedmont late Tuesday and across a larger area late Wednesday.
Expect temperatures to be just above normal Monday then well above
normal through mid week in the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Anticipate cigs quickly settling down into
the IFR range throughout overnight as the heavier rainfall begins to
spread in, with mainly MVFR visibility except IFR in the heaviest
downpours. More solid LIFR conditions should develop through the day
as the stronger forcing and very deep moisture move overhead.
Anticipate a sharp uptick in south to southwesterly gusts. Low-level
wind shear will be possible at all sites from time to time today as
the low-level jet continues to ramp up. Will focus TSRA chances
mostly on the pre-frontal developing line from late morning through
the afternoon hours. Very little improvement is expected under the
fropa moves through the region just after the current TAF period.

Outlook: Northwest flow may persist near KAVL, but drying is
possible elsewhere through Friday. A system will move through the
region on Saturday, with brief restrictions possible, before drying
returns on Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       Med   61%     Med   76%     High  81%     Med   62%
KGSP       Med   72%     Med   76%     High  90%     High  82%
KAVL       Med   77%     Med   74%     Med   74%     Med   78%
KHKY       High  80%     Med   79%     High  83%     Med   76%
KGMU       Med   76%     High  82%     High  86%     High  91%
KAND       Med   61%     Med   72%     Med   73%     High  86%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ010-017.
     Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EST this morning through this
     evening for GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EST this morning through this
     evening for NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-
     508-510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EST this morning through this
     evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-062045-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
342 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A strong cold front will move slowly across the region on Thursday.
In addition to the heavy rain, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected as the cold front crosses the region Thursday and
Thursday evening. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong to severe
with damaging wind gusts. A brief, isolated tornado will be possible
mainly along and south and east of Interstate 85.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-062045-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
342 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and western
North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

A slow-moving cold front will bring deep moisture across the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia through Thursday. Periods of heavy
rain are expected tonight and continuing Thursday afternoon, with
the heaviest rain expected late tonight through Thursday morning.
Embedded thunderstorms may also bring the threat of cloud-to-ground
lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1143 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

NCZ048-049-051>053-060530-
Buncombe NC-Haywood NC-Yancey NC-Swain NC-Madison NC-
1143 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MADISON...NORTHEASTERN SWAIN...
NORTHERN HAYWOOD...NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE AND WEST CENTRAL YANCEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM EST...

At 1142 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 9 miles east of Morristown to 8 miles east of
Newport to 20 miles west of Marshall to 13 miles east of Gatlinburg,
and moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marshall, Mars Hill, Hot Springs, Smoky Mountains-Cataloochee,
Leicester, Smoky Mountains-Big Creek, Weaverville, Woodfin, Smoky
Mountains-Balsam Mountain and Waterville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3597 8261 3595 8256
      3600 8248 3582 8240 3556 8274 3565 8333
      3579 8308 3578 8299 3584 8292 3587 8292
      3588 8290 3593 8292 3595 8287 3593 8281
      3597 8278 3600 8278 3606 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 276DEG 39KT 3616 8314 3601 8305 3580 8305 3569
8325

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1220 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

NCZ048>050-053-505-060545-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
1220 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN
MADISON...MITCHELL...BUNCOMBE AND YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM
EST...

At 1219 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 18 miles west of Burnsville to 5 miles east of
Marshall to 9 miles northwest of Downtown Asheville, and moving east
at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Asheville, Spruce Pine, Burnsville, East Asheville, West
Asheville, North Asheville, Black Mountain, Woodfin, Swannanoa and
Weaverville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 8218 3615 8215 3611 8213 3610 8208
      3573 8201 3552 8221 3552 8223 3548 8225
      3561 8278 3579 8263 3605 8268 3606 8263
      3603 8259 3597 8261 3595 8256 3601 8246
      3611 8237 3614 8229 3613 8225 3616 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 277DEG 36KT 3593 8263 3579 8259 3567 8270

MOORE