Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

639 
WGUS52 KGSP 061654
FFWGSP
NCC175-062115-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200206T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1154 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Transylvania County in western North Carolina...

* Until 415 PM EST.

* At 1148 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain has fallen across the warned area. County officials 
  have relayed reports of flash flooding and closed roads across the 
  county. Elevated water levels will persist into the afternoon.   

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other 
           drainage and low lying areas.

Excessive rainfall over the warned area will cause mud slides near
steep terrain. The mud slide can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 8298 3516 8300 3519 8299 3524 8293
      3529 8292 3531 8288 3532 8283 3542 8274
      3530 8262 3514 8258 3512 8266 3513 8268
      3510 8270 3509 8273 3507 8275 3507 8278
      3509 8279 3503 8301 3505 8306

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

KRENTZ

140 
WGUS72 KGSP 062117
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
417 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

NCC175-062121-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0008.000000T0000Z-200206T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Transylvania NC-
417 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 415
PM EST...

The heavy rain has ended and flooding is confined to the typical 
areas along the French Broad River near Brevard, Little River, and
Blantyre. Flood Warnings remain in effect for these areas. Please 
continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3513 8298 3516 8300 3519 8299 3524 8293
      3529 8292 3531 8288 3532 8283 3542 8274
      3530 8262 3514 8258 3512 8266 3513 8268
      3510 8270 3509 8273 3507 8275 3507 8278
      3509 8279 3503 8301 3505 8306

$$

JMP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
324 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will impact the region today into tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front and strong upper-level disturbance.
Colder, but drier, conditions will develop behind the front through
Friday. A swiftly moving system will cross the region on Saturday,
before dry high pressure sets up by Sunday. Another moist cold front
will approach the area slowly from the west during the early to
middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EST: The ingredients are in place for a very wet and
stormy day across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Water
vapor imagery reveals a prominent 500 mb trough moving across TX/OK
early this morning. A tremendous fetch of moisture is evident east
of the trough across the lower MS River Valley and stretching up the
Appalachians mountain chain. Precipitable water values in this plume
are running 1.5 to 1.75 inches, with anomalies some 3+ standard
deviations above normal. A Flash Flood Watch is already in place
across the entire forecast area, and no changes are planned with the
expiration still set at midnight tonight.

As the base of the trough moves east over the lower MS River Valley
today, lobes of stronger DPVA will shuttle northeast across the
southern Appalachians and adjacent foothills/piedmont. This will
combine with robust upper level divergence associated with the
subtropical jet streak reaching 170+ kt at times to produce
impressive forcing. Waves of better sfc-6km bulk shear will cross
the region ahead of the associated surface cold front, with values
around 70 kt at times. Instability was looking to be the main
limiting factor for widespread severe weather, with sbCAPE values
generally just a few hundred J/kg during the daytime hours, and mid-
level lapse rates rather modest. However, recent RAP runs are now
suggesting some sbCAPEs in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range at times
midday as mid 60s dewpoints approach. Overall, the dynamics are so
strong, and the low-level wind shear so abundant, that the existing
Marginal west to Enhanced east gradient of severe threat looks well
placed for today into this evening. Improving updraft helicity on
the mesoscale models will arrive in the southwest mountains before
daybreak, but better organization seems likely over the eastern half
from 16Z onward as the low-level jet ramps up to 50 to 60 kt. Strong
to severe discrete activity will be possible through the morning
hours, but the pre-frontal line should sharpen up through the day as
mesolows move up the frontal boundary to pose the greatest severe
risk through the afternoon hours, perhaps into the early evening
across I-77.

Anticipate a late evening fropa across the mountains, with the
boundary moving east across the piedmont overnight. Snow levels will
fall from the west through daybreak Friday, with light accumulations
most likely along the higher ridges around the Smokies. Winds will
be gusty through the period, both on the warm advection side today
and the cold advection side tonight, but with gusts generally below
advisory levels (30 to 40 mph) at all but the highest peaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Thursday: With the cold front east of the region by
Friday morning, colder air will continue to spill across the
mountains, with 850 mb temperatures bottoming out at minus 6 or
colder along the spine of the southern Appalachians. Although the
low-level flow will be a less favorable westerly direction for
upslope, orographic lift will still wring out snow showers through
the day, with some high elevations in and around the Smokies seeing
possibly 2 to 4 inches of snow by Friday evening. Accumulations will
be quite terrain dependent, with Advisory or greater snow amounts
limited to mainly above 4000 feet, and very little in the lower
valleys. Will mention in the HWO, but hold off on any Advisories at
present. A brief lull in the moisture is expected on Friday night.
Temperatures will return to below climo values during the period.

The latest model runs continue to show the development of weak low
pressure on Saturday morning as a strong short wave drops down
across the TN Valley into the base of the long wave trof across the
eastern US. The models have shown good run-to-run continuity with
this peculiar feature, blowing up precip over the mtns early in the
day and then moving it slowly off to the E/NE, but the recent trend
is toward lower precip amts possibly because the sfc low looks more
like it will be moving over the OH Valley region on Saturday. It is
worth noting, however, that the operational GFS continues to run at
the low end of the GEFS distribution. The fcst is interesting
because partial thickness remains rather low, the boundary layer
rather cool to start with at onset, and the fcst soundings showing
wet bulb profiles that would support all snow at onset across the
mtns. Eventually, warming takes place in the valleys, but not before
we might get a few hours of light snow, especially if the NAM is
correct. Elevations above about 3k feet would be likely to stay snow
for the duration. Because the QPF has come down in the operational
model guidance, present indications are for an Advisory-level event,
but if we end up closer to the ensemble mean, we could push Warning
criteria at elevations above 3500 feet by Saturday afternoon. East
of the mtns, if the precip can begin early enough in the day, it
could begin as a period of light snow, before an eventual changeover
to rain. This would be somewhat similar to what transpired last
Friday, but the amounts this time would be much less. However, the
latest trend was also to delay the onset by a few hours outside the
mtns. This system lifts out Saturday evening and precip pares back
to the NW flow upslope areas by late evening, and then ends by
daybreak Sunday. Temps should be below normal for this period.

The rest of the weekend should be quiet and dry as a flat upper
ridge moves overhead Sunday, pushing high pressure past, then off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday night. Temperatures should return
to normal. The moisture associated with the next front is not
expected to arrive before daybreak Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 327 AM EST Thursday: Fcst confidence starts out decent on
Monday morning with the models in general agreement that another
frontal boundary will gradually sag down across the fcst area as
the upper flow slowly goes WSW under a low amplitude trof/ridge
pattern. This system is not expected to have nearly the same
benefit of moisture flux from the Gulf as our current event,
but there should be enough forcing and deep moisture to afford a
likely precip probability ramping up Monday and then continuing into
Tuesday while the front stalls against the WSW flow aloft. Temps
should be warm enough...about 5-10 deg above normal...that it
should be all rain. Confidence plummets dramatically beyond
Tuesday. The op GFS has a stronger short wave coming through
the nrn stream which develops a stronger frontal wave that lifts
out Tuesday. Because the wave is stronger, the flow amplifies an
eastern trof which drives the front through and we dry out for
the middle of the week, until a srn stream wave ejects and brings
moisture and precip back from the SW for Thursday. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF remains more low amplitude and keeps the frontal boundary
stalled across our region right through the end of the period,
with another wave on Thursday. For the time being, we lean toward
the ECMWF solution, which makes for another wet week with fairly
high precip probs. But, again, confidence beyond Tuesday is low.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Anticipate cigs quickly settling down into
the IFR range throughout as the heavier rainfall begins to spread
in, with mainly MVFR visibility except IFR in the heaviest
downpours. More solid LIFR conditions should develop through the day
as the stronger forcing and very deep moisture move overhead.
Anticipate a sharp uptick in south to southwesterly gusts. Low-level
wind shear will be possible at all sites from time to time today as
the low-level jet continues to ramp up. Will focus TSRA chances
mostly on the pre-frontal developing line from late morning through
the afternoon hours. Very little improvement is expected under the
fropa moves through the region just after the current TAF period.

Outlook: Northwest flow may persist near KAVL, but drying is
possible elsewhere through Friday. A system will move through the
region on Saturday, with brief restrictions possible, before drying
returns on Sunday.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       Low   47%     Med   68%     High  91%     Low   51%
KGSP       Med   65%     Med   73%     Med   77%     Med   71%
KAVL       High  82%     Med   72%     Med   69%     Med   71%
KHKY       Med   73%     High  80%     Med   77%     Med   71%
KGMU       Med   66%     High  82%     Med   79%     High  89%
KAND       Low   55%     Med   72%     Med   64%     High  87%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ010-017.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ035>037-056-057-
     068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...HG/PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ001>014-019-070900-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-
Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
400 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the
foothills and Piedmont of western North Carolina, and Upstate South
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected to develop
across the region today through this evening ahead of an advancing
cold front. Some of the thunderstorms may well become strong to
severe, with damaging wind gusts possible in addition to cloud to
ground lightning. A few brief, isolated tornadoes will be possible,
especially along and southeast of Interstate 85 this afternoon and
evening. Plan now for the actions that you will take if Severe
Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches or Warnings are issued today. This is
especially important if you in a mobile home. Make arrangements now
to flee quickly to a nearby, sturdier structure if warnings are
issues for your location.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-070900-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
400 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia and western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the
region today ahead of an advancing cold front. Some of the
thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts
possible in addition to cloud to ground lightning. A brief, isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Snow showers will develop behind the departing cold front late
tonight through Friday. Light snow accumulations are expected across
the mountains, especially at elevations above 3500 feet where a
couple of inches will be possible. Two to four inches of snow will be
possible along the highest ridge tops around the Great Smoky
Mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
523 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

SCZ014-061100-
Chester SC-
523 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CHESTER COUNTY UNTIL 600
AM EST...

At 523 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southeast of Chester, or near Blackstock, moving northeast at
55 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Great Falls, Fort Lawn, Richburg, Blackstock, Fishing Creek Reservoir
and Cornwell.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8089 3464 8090 3462 8089 3460 8089
      3456 8087 3454 8088 3456 8126 3482 8092
      3482 8090 3479 8088 3475 8088 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1023Z 230DEG 47KT 3455 8112

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
551 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

SCZ006-007-010-061115-
Anderson SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
551 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE...WEST
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM
EST...

At 550 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Easley, or near Piedmont, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Greenville Eastside, West Greenville, Greer,
Mauldin, Taylors, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Welcome and Powdersville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 8278 3476 8261 3482 8249 3486 8249
      3508 8222 3488 8195 3477 8213 3478 8215
      3474 8217 3458 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 1050Z 230DEG 46KT 3469 8250

MOORE