Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Grand Forks, ND

966 
WWUS53 KFGF 141616
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1116 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNC087-141626-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0277.000000T0000Z-200814T1700Z/
Mahnomen MN-
1116 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN MAHNOMEN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4741 9467 4683 9466 4698 9567 4724 9537
      4754 9534 4767 9442 4741 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 265DEG 57KT 4751 9500 4729 9498 4701 9515 

$$

MNC005-007-029-057-141700-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0277.000000T0000Z-200814T1700Z/
Hubbard MN-Beltrami MN-Becker MN-Clearwater MN-
1116 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
HUBBARD...SOUTHEASTERN BELTRAMI...NORTHEASTERN BECKER AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES...

At 1116 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Wilton to 6 miles northwest of Kabekona to near Two
Inlets, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Bemidji, Kabekona and Plantagenet Lake around 1120 AM CDT.
  Guthrie, Lavinia and Lake Bemidji State Park around 1125 AM CDT.
  Nevis around 1130 AM CDT.
  Akeley around 1135 AM CDT.
  Pennington around 1140 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Camp
Thunderbird East, Camp Thunderbird West and Many Point Scout Camp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4741 9467 4683 9466 4698 9567 4724 9537
      4754 9534 4767 9442 4741 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 265DEG 57KT 4751 9500 4729 9498 4701 9515 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Knutsvig

292 
WWUS53 KFGF 141628
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1128 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNC005-007-029-057-141638-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0277.000000T0000Z-200814T1700Z/
Hubbard MN-Beltrami MN-Becker MN-Clearwater MN-
1128 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HUBBARD...SOUTHEASTERN
BELTRAMI...NORTHEASTERN BECKER AND SOUTHEASTERN CLEARWATER COUNTIES
IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4741 9467 4683 9466 4698 9567 4724 9537
      4754 9534 4767 9442 4741 9442
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 266DEG 55KT 4752 9478 4730 9476 4702 9493 

$$

Knutsvig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1050 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Sfc low near Aberdeen SD at 15z with trough north toward Devils
Lake and a trough/warm front from the low to about Fargo then to
just north of Bemidji. Line of storms moving quickly east along
this boundary with 50+ kt wind potential. So far most observed
winds have been just below that but speed of main apex of bow in
the line of storms is moving still at around 50 kts. Question rest
of the day is west central MN and severe threat...low itself will
move northeast today in the area and storms may develop along the
cold front as it does. NE ND and far NW MN will be in the cooler,
side with rain showers as main 500 mb wave moves through.
Watching also for winds on backside of the sfc low but attm looks
like sub advisory levels with gusts into the 25-30 kt range late
aftn/eve in the RRV.

Will leave flash flood watch area as any additional heavy rain
will cause more issues in areas that got 2-4 inches of rain last
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Showers and thunderstorms remain over the far southern Red River
Valley into adjacent areas of west central Minnesota. The strongest
storms have been in Otter Tail County, slowly shifting east. Other
than an isolated strong to severe storm in this area yet, the main
severe threat has passed. Meanwhile, there is another area of strong
to severe storms over southwest North Dakota. These storms are
already approaching the Missouri River south of Bismarck. The
initial storms in that area seem to be weakening a bit, but will
bear watching. There are widespread clouds associated with both of
these storm complexes, with only a thin area of clear skies between
them. In that clear area, there has been some fog. Visibilities have
been down to less than a quarter mile at times, but then nearby
spots have been much better. That also appears to be the case on
satellite imagery, which shows the fog to be fairly spotty yet.
Think as the cloudy areas combine, the fog threat should decrease.

Looking ahead into today, it is a tough forecast. Although the cells
southwest of Bismarck are on a slight weakening trend, high
resolution guidance and the AWIPS timing tool show the activity to
the west reaching our FA around sunrise. These high resolution
models show strong storms holding together as they move through the
FA during the morning hours. There were areas of the FA this past
evening that received very heavy rain. These areas would be
susceptible to additional rainfall, which could occur with this
second round. Then, in the afternoon, there should be further
expansion of the strong and severe storms, especially east of the
Red River Valley. This could potentially bring a third round of
precipitation to some areas. For these reasons, we will need to
consider issuing a flash flood watch for the more prone areas of
our FA, and will take a deeper look with the next update. One
other fly in the ointment today is that the models are showing a
pretty good burst of northwest winds in the early to mid
afternoon.

Not sure exactly how fast the precipitation will exit out of the FA
this evening. Some models linger it well into the evening over
northwest Minnesota, while others are quicker. If skies happen to
stay clear and winds lighter than expected, there could be some fog
around the area overnight. Moving into Saturday, the FA remains in
northwest flow, with some cool 500mb temperatures. SPC has placed
portions of the far northern Red River Valley and portions of
northwest Minnesota into a marginal risk for severe weather. Think
this would be during peak heating and end in the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Still looks like the FA will be in northwest flow aloft on Saturday
night. 500mb temperatures are cool enough to support some evening
showers and thunderstorms. This activity should slide east of the FA
overnight.

For Sunday into Wednesday, the western United States 500mb ridge
axis continues to build, and tries to slide a little eastward. High
temperatures start this period a little below normal, but then climb
back to normal by Tuesday and Wednesday. Several models show the
potential for weak short wave activity to drop into the northeast
FA, but the potential would be low.

By Thursday, the flow turns a little more zonal again. The most
uncertainty will be during this period as well, as far as
precipitation chances go. The model blend has some low chances for
precipitation, and don't see any reason to go higher at this point.
Should still be mild on Thursday too.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Main aviation concern today will be thunderstorm chances, some
possibly severe (strong winds). Will attempt to update the TAFs as
confidence increases, but be aware that most sites will be
impacted at some point over the next 24 hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>003-008-
     009-013>017-022>024-027>032.

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...TG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
533 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-151300-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
533 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Multiple rounds of severe weather anticipated. Early morning
storms will continue across west central Minnesota bringing
mainly an excessive rainfall threat. The next round of storms will
move through southeast North Dakota after 7am, and then into
northwest Minnesota through the morning hours. This complex will
bring the threat for hail over an inch and very dangerous wind
gusts, possibly greater than 75 mph. Intense rainfall rates will
also lead to excessive rainfall, especially across those
locations that have already received heavy rainfall over the past
24 hours. Additional storms will develop along and east of the Red
River Valley this afternoon, with hail up to 2 inches, wind gusts
up to 75 mph, a tornado or two, and excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated severe storms are possible across northwest Minnesota on
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

TG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
932 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNZ001-014-015-141515-
Red Lake MN-West Polk MN-East Polk MN-
932 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RED LAKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM CDT...

At 932 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crookston, or 25 miles southeast of Grand Forks, moving northeast at
40 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crookston, Fisher, Climax, Euclid, Beltrami, Gentilly and Eldred.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota...and southeastern and northeastern North
Dakota.

LAT...LON 4751 9650 4752 9681 4761 9685 4765 9689
      4767 9689 4768 9690 4769 9690 4800 9668
      4780 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 212DEG 34KT 4770 9664

Lynch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     ELLIOTT                 46.40N 97.81W
08/14/2020                   RANSOM             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR ELLIOTT. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

ALEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LISBON                  46.44N 97.68W
08/14/2020                   RANSOM             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 INCH TREEN BRANCHES DOWNED ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

ALEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1009 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W LISBON              46.44N 97.73W
08/14/2020  M57 MPH          Ransom             ND   MESONET

            NDAWN SITE MEASURED A 57 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1012 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW FARGO              46.89N 96.83W
08/14/2020  M61 MPH          Cass               ND   MESONET

            NDAWN SITE MEASURED A 61 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

TLYNCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1053 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DILWORTH                46.88N 96.70W
08/14/2020                   CLAY               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PICTURES OF 2 AND 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE
            BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN ON EAST SIDE OF TOWN.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&