Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Grand Forks, ND

795 
WGUS73 KFGF 140653
FFSFGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
153 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNC113-125-141215-
/O.CON.KFGF.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200814T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pennington MN-Red Lake MN-
153 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT THIS 
MORNING FOR EASTERN PENNINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN RED LAKE COUNTIES...

At 153 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Doppler radar.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other
         drainage and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  High Landing and Roland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4808 9607 4814 9600 4811 9565 4798 9567
      4794 9577 4791 9574 4787 9578 4791 9580
      4791 9584 4795 9584 4796 9586 4802 9585
      4802 9583 4803 9588 4804 9588 4804 9585
      4807 9586 4811 9592 4810 9592 4806 9596

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

TG

532 
WGUS73 KFGF 141216 RRA
FFSFGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
716 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

MNC113-125-141226-
/O.EXP.KFGF.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-200814T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pennington MN-Red Lake MN-
716 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR EASTERN PENNINGTON AND 
NORTHEASTERN RED LAKE COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT Friday for 
portions of central Minnesota...north central Minnesota...northwest 
Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4808 9607 4814 9600 4811 9565 4798 9567
      4794 9577 4791 9574 4787 9578 4791 9580
      4791 9584 4795 9584 4796 9586 4802 9585
      4802 9583 4803 9588 4804 9588 4804 9585
      4807 9586 4811 9592 4810 9592 4806 9596

$$

CJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
843 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Severe thunderstorms continue northeast of the F-M area, up toward
the northwest side of the Upper and Lower Red Lakes. These storms
have not been moving too much, so heavy rain may still be an issue
in some areas. Radar estimated storm total precipitation shows
some heavier amounts in eastern Pennington and eastern Norman
counties. Otherwise, the latest SPC discussion mentions the
potential for continued development over the next few hours as the
low level flow picks up.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Thunderstorms have been firing from just east of the Fargo-
Moorhead area, northeast toward the Upper and Lower Red Lakes.
This seems to be along the western fringe of the low level jet and
in the warm sector with ample instability and moisture. The SPC
has issued a severe thunderstorm watch that includes most of our
counties along and east of the Red River Valley. With the high
amount of moisture in the area, will have to keep an eye on heavy
rain, or training of storms over the same area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Warm front continues to work north, but so far we appear to remain
capped with only elevated showers/weak storms transitioning north
early this afternoon. As the surface trough continues to slide east
and the CAP weakens we should see combination of low level
convergence and at least some synoptic support associated with trough
passage through southern Canada. This should allow thunderstorm
initiation in highly unstable air mass this evening (ML CAPE already
over 4000 J/KG according to SPC RAP mesoanalysis). Effective shear
is shown by SPC Mesoanalysis in the 30-45 kt across northeast ND into
northwest MN, and if concurrent with thunderstorm activity could
help with discrete supercell potential before mergers take place and
activity transitions east. Best signal is still mainly in northwest
MN based on CAMs, but I wouldn't want to rule out severe potential
anywhere this evening along convergence zone (may be more isolated
further into eastern ND).

Stronger synoptic/mesoscale ascent arrives after 03Z as shortwave
moves along the ND/SD border, with very high shear associated with
LLJ and strong mid level speed max. WIth lingering high
moisture/instability there will be a potential for elevated discrete
cells and eventually upscale growth potential into another MCS that
would then transition into eastern ND and northwest MN 4-9AM period.
This period may actually have the best overall potential for severe
convection in eastern ND.

Regarding impacts this evening/overnight tonight: Where supercells
develop environment could support potential for hail to 2 inch,
downburst potential to 75 mph and tornadoes. While activity may
mainly be elevated late tonight considering the high shear/CAPE
environment there is at least a conditional risk for tornadogenesis
and large hail with discrete cells. If more of an upscale trend
occurs then a transition to a widespread wind event may become
favored.

How this potential MCS late tonight/Friday morning holds together
and tracks eastward ahead of the main cold front will likely
determine impacts and timing of any redevelopment during the day
Friday and Friday afternoon. If this moves through quick enough, we
may see a window for destabilization and another round of
supercells/discrete storms ahead of the cold front in our east. If
this complex lingers through the day then the tendency may be
embedded pulse type convection with widespread heavy rain through the
afternoon. Cold front should push east of our CWA based on current
model timing by late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening with
drier/more stable conditions then ending thunderstorm and severe
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Saturday... The upper level trough will begin to exit the CWA
overnight Friday and into Saturday. A weak shortwave is expected to
move across the northern part of the CWA during the afternoon on
Saturday and some spotty rain showers in this area cannot be
completely ruled out. Otherwise, temperatures look to stay in the
upper 70s/low 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday through Thursday... Northwesterly flow will begin to dominate
the upper levels and will usher in a calmer weather pattern to close
the weekend and move into the beginning of the work week. Along with
the upper level ridging, high pressure at the surface will persist
for much of the forecast period. Calmer, cooler, and drier
conditions will accompany this transition with high temperatures in
the mid 70s/low 80s and dewpoints in the 50s for much of the
forecast area. Towards the end of the forecast period the chance for
a slightly more active weather pattern appears to emerge and could
bring with it the chance for rain once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

With limited time due to the recent issuance of a severe
thunderstorm watch, have basically gone with continuity from the
previous set of TAFs. Added some definition for the first few
hours, and will take a closer look beyond the first 6 hours with
the next TAF issuance. As it stands right now, KTVF and KBJI look
to have the best chance for storms this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...NCR/DJR
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
417 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-142130-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
417 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorm development will be possible across  North
Dakota and western Minnesota this evening, with most numerous
severe activity expected over northwestern Minnesota. Storms will
be capable of producing large hail of 2 inches and brief
tornadoes early in their development, eventually becoming a line
of thunderstorms producing wind gusts to 75 mph and heavy rain.
The line of thunderstorms will move further east into Minnesota
later in the evening, but additional severe storms could move into
eastern North Dakota from the west overnight after 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered severe storms will be possible on Friday. The pattern
will become less active for the weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
900 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             2 E BELTRAMI            47.54N 96.49W
08/13/2020  E1.25 INCH       Polk               MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
907 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             OKLEE                   47.84N 95.85W
08/13/2020  E1.00 INCH       RED LAKE           MN   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. REPORTS AND PHOTOS
            POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
920 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             5 ESE THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.09N 96.08W
08/13/2020  E1.00 INCH       Pennington         MN   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF HAIL FROM DIME TO QUARTER SIZED.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             4 NE ADA                47.34N 96.45W
08/13/2020  E1.00 INCH       Norman             MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
940 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     HAIL             1 E ADA                 47.30N 96.49W
08/13/2020  E1.00 INCH       Norman             MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
954 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

MNZ009-016-017-140315-
North Beltrami MN-North Clearwater MN-South Beltrami MN-
954 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BELTRAMI AND NORTHEASTERN
CLEARWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 954 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Thorhult to 7 miles west of
Little Rock. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Lower Red Lake around 1000 PM CDT.
  Little Rock and Red Lake around 1010 PM CDT.
  Western Upper Red Lake, Redby and Ponemah around 1015 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4825 9471 4786 9474 4780 9535 4814 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 255DEG 35KT 4809 9529 4786 9528

DJR