Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Grand Forks, ND

305 
WWUS53 KFGF 140221
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
921 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

MNC007-140231-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0254.000000T0000Z-200814T0300Z/
Beltrami MN-
921 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BELTRAMI COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4831 9560 4794 9596 4788 9602 4789 9635
      4799 9630 4803 9629 4840 9599 4841 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 230DEG 16KT 4839 9573 4798 9610 

$$

MNC089-113-125-140300-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0254.000000T0000Z-200814T0300Z/
Marshall MN-Red Lake MN-Pennington MN-
921 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN RED LAKE AND CENTRAL
PENNINGTON COUNTIES...

At 921 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Gatzke to near Hazel, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Mavie around 1005 PM CDT.
  Goodridge around 1015 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Thief
River Falls Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4831 9560 4794 9596 4788 9602 4789 9635
      4799 9630 4803 9629 4840 9599 4841 9561
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 230DEG 16KT 4839 9573 4798 9610 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DJR

285 
WWUS53 KFGF 140236
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
936 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

MNC089-140246-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0254.000000T0000Z-200814T0300Z/
Marshall MN-
936 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened. Therefore, the 
warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4788 9602 4789 9635 4799 9630 4803 9629
      4817 9617 4817 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 241DEG 24KT 4808 9586 4799 9617 

$$

MNC113-125-140300-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0254.000000T0000Z-200814T0300Z/
Red Lake MN-Pennington MN-
936 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN RED LAKE AND CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTIES...

At 936 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near High Landing to near St. Hilaire, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Mavie around 1010 PM CDT.
  Goodridge around 1020 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Thief
River Falls Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4788 9602 4789 9635 4799 9630 4803 9629
      4817 9617 4817 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 241DEG 24KT 4808 9586 4799 9617 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DJR

803 
WWUS53 KFGF 140256
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
956 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

MNC113-125-140306-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0254.000000T0000Z-200814T0300Z/
Red Lake MN-Pennington MN-
956 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN RED LAKE AND
CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with these
thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northwestern Minnesota.

LAT...LON 4788 9602 4789 9635 4799 9630 4803 9629
      4817 9617 4817 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 256DEG 17KT 4792 9618 4804 9607 

$$

DJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
843 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Severe thunderstorms continue northeast of the F-M area, up toward
the northwest side of the Upper and Lower Red Lakes. These storms
have not been moving too much, so heavy rain may still be an issue
in some areas. Radar estimated storm total precipitation shows
some heavier amounts in eastern Pennington and eastern Norman
counties. Otherwise, the latest SPC discussion mentions the
potential for continued development over the next few hours as the
low level flow picks up.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Thunderstorms have been firing from just east of the Fargo-
Moorhead area, northeast toward the Upper and Lower Red Lakes.
This seems to be along the western fringe of the low level jet and
in the warm sector with ample instability and moisture. The SPC
has issued a severe thunderstorm watch that includes most of our
counties along and east of the Red River Valley. With the high
amount of moisture in the area, will have to keep an eye on heavy
rain, or training of storms over the same area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Warm front continues to work north, but so far we appear to remain
capped with only elevated showers/weak storms transitioning north
early this afternoon. As the surface trough continues to slide east
and the CAP weakens we should see combination of low level
convergence and at least some synoptic support associated with trough
passage through southern Canada. This should allow thunderstorm
initiation in highly unstable air mass this evening (ML CAPE already
over 4000 J/KG according to SPC RAP mesoanalysis). Effective shear
is shown by SPC Mesoanalysis in the 30-45 kt across northeast ND into
northwest MN, and if concurrent with thunderstorm activity could
help with discrete supercell potential before mergers take place and
activity transitions east. Best signal is still mainly in northwest
MN based on CAMs, but I wouldn't want to rule out severe potential
anywhere this evening along convergence zone (may be more isolated
further into eastern ND).

Stronger synoptic/mesoscale ascent arrives after 03Z as shortwave
moves along the ND/SD border, with very high shear associated with
LLJ and strong mid level speed max. WIth lingering high
moisture/instability there will be a potential for elevated discrete
cells and eventually upscale growth potential into another MCS that
would then transition into eastern ND and northwest MN 4-9AM period.
This period may actually have the best overall potential for severe
convection in eastern ND.

Regarding impacts this evening/overnight tonight: Where supercells
develop environment could support potential for hail to 2 inch,
downburst potential to 75 mph and tornadoes. While activity may
mainly be elevated late tonight considering the high shear/CAPE
environment there is at least a conditional risk for tornadogenesis
and large hail with discrete cells. If more of an upscale trend
occurs then a transition to a widespread wind event may become
favored.

How this potential MCS late tonight/Friday morning holds together
and tracks eastward ahead of the main cold front will likely
determine impacts and timing of any redevelopment during the day
Friday and Friday afternoon. If this moves through quick enough, we
may see a window for destabilization and another round of
supercells/discrete storms ahead of the cold front in our east. If
this complex lingers through the day then the tendency may be
embedded pulse type convection with widespread heavy rain through the
afternoon. Cold front should push east of our CWA based on current
model timing by late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening with
drier/more stable conditions then ending thunderstorm and severe
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Saturday... The upper level trough will begin to exit the CWA
overnight Friday and into Saturday. A weak shortwave is expected to
move across the northern part of the CWA during the afternoon on
Saturday and some spotty rain showers in this area cannot be
completely ruled out. Otherwise, temperatures look to stay in the
upper 70s/low 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday through Thursday... Northwesterly flow will begin to dominate
the upper levels and will usher in a calmer weather pattern to close
the weekend and move into the beginning of the work week. Along with
the upper level ridging, high pressure at the surface will persist
for much of the forecast period. Calmer, cooler, and drier
conditions will accompany this transition with high temperatures in
the mid 70s/low 80s and dewpoints in the 50s for much of the
forecast area. Towards the end of the forecast period the chance for
a slightly more active weather pattern appears to emerge and could
bring with it the chance for rain once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

With limited time due to the recent issuance of a severe
thunderstorm watch, have basically gone with continuity from the
previous set of TAFs. Added some definition for the first few
hours, and will take a closer look beyond the first 6 hours with
the next TAF issuance. As it stands right now, KTVF and KBJI look
to have the best chance for storms this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...NCR/DJR
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
417 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-142130-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
417 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorm development will be possible across  North
Dakota and western Minnesota this evening, with most numerous
severe activity expected over northwestern Minnesota. Storms will
be capable of producing large hail of 2 inches and brief
tornadoes early in their development, eventually becoming a line
of thunderstorms producing wind gusts to 75 mph and heavy rain.
The line of thunderstorms will move further east into Minnesota
later in the evening, but additional severe storms could move into
eastern North Dakota from the west overnight after 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered severe storms will be possible on Friday. The pattern
will become less active for the weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
732 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             ST. HILAIRE             48.01N 96.21W
08/13/2020  E0.88 INCH       PENNINGTON         MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
745 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             3 W ROLAND              47.94N 95.84W
08/13/2020  E1.25 INCH       Red Lake           MN   PUBLIC

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
806 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 SE THIEF RIVER FALLS  48.06N 96.10W
08/13/2020                   Pennington         MN   STORM CHASER

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH FUNNEL ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
808 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             2 W HIGH LANDING        48.05N 95.85W
08/13/2020  E1.00 INCH       Pennington         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
811 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 SE THIEF RIVER FALLS  48.05N 96.08W
08/13/2020                   Pennington         MN   STORM CHASER

            PERSISTENT WALL CLOUD WITH FUNNEL ABOUT HALFWAY DOWN.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
844 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             10 E THIEF RIVER FALLS  48.11N 95.96W
08/13/2020  E1.25 INCH       Pennington         MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL FROM NICKEL TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED. REPORT AND PHOTO
            POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST