Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Grand Forks, ND

864 
WWUS53 KFGF 140106
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
806 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

MNC113-140115-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-200814T0115Z/
Pennington MN-
806 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTY...

At 806 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Mavie, or 10
miles east of Thief River Falls, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north
central Pennington County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4800 9599 4805 9612 4817 9607 4817 9596
      4813 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 228DEG 8KT 4813 9595 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DJR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
633 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Thunderstorms have been firing from just east of the Fargo-
Moorhead area, northeast toward the Upper and Lower Red Lakes.
This seems to be along the western fringe of the low level jet and
in the warm sector with ample instability and moisture. The SPC
has issued a severe thunderstorm watch that includes most of our
counties along and east of the Red River Valley. With the high
amount of moisture in the area, will have to keep an eye on heavy
rain, or training of storms over the same area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Warm front continues to work north, but so far we appear to remain
capped with only elevated showers/weak storms transitioning north
early this afternoon. As the surface trough continues to slide east
and the CAP weakens we should see combination of low level
convergence and at least some synoptic support associated with trough
passage through southern Canada. This should allow thunderstorm
initiation in highly unstable air mass this evening (ML CAPE already
over 4000 J/KG according to SPC RAP mesoanalysis). Effective shear
is shown by SPC Mesoanalysis in the 30-45 kt across northeast ND into
northwest MN, and if concurrent with thunderstorm activity could
help with discrete supercell potential before mergers take place and
activity transitions east. Best signal is still mainly in northwest
MN based on CAMs, but I wouldn't want to rule out severe potential
anywhere this evening along convergence zone (may be more isolated
further into eastern ND).

Stronger synoptic/mesoscale ascent arrives after 03Z as shortwave
moves along the ND/SD border, with very high shear associated with
LLJ and strong mid level speed max. WIth lingering high
moisture/instability there will be a potential for elevated discrete
cells and eventually upscale growth potential into another MCS that
would then transition into eastern ND and northwest MN 4-9AM period.
This period may actually have the best overall potential for severe
convection in eastern ND.

Regarding impacts this evening/overnight tonight: Where supercells
develop environment could support potential for hail to 2 inch,
downburst potential to 75 mph and tornadoes. While activity may
mainly be elevated late tonight considering the high shear/CAPE
environment there is at least a conditional risk for tornadogenesis
and large hail with discrete cells. If more of an upscale trend
occurs then a transition to a widespread wind event may become
favored.

How this potential MCS late tonight/Friday morning holds together
and tracks eastward ahead of the main cold front will likely
determine impacts and timing of any redevelopment during the day
Friday and Friday afternoon. If this moves through quick enough, we
may see a window for destabilization and another round of
supercells/discrete storms ahead of the cold front in our east. If
this complex lingers through the day then the tendency may be
embedded pulse type convection with widespread heavy rain through the
afternoon. Cold front should push east of our CWA based on current
model timing by late Friday afternoon/early Friday evening with
drier/more stable conditions then ending thunderstorm and severe
threat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

Saturday... The upper level trough will begin to exit the CWA
overnight Friday and into Saturday. A weak shortwave is expected to
move across the northern part of the CWA during the afternoon on
Saturday and some spotty rain showers in this area cannot be
completely ruled out. Otherwise, temperatures look to stay in the
upper 70s/low 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday through Thursday... Northwesterly flow will begin to dominate
the upper levels and will usher in a calmer weather pattern to close
the weekend and move into the beginning of the work week. Along with
the upper level ridging, high pressure at the surface will persist
for much of the forecast period. Calmer, cooler, and drier
conditions will accompany this transition with high temperatures in
the mid 70s/low 80s and dewpoints in the 50s for much of the
forecast area. Towards the end of the forecast period the chance for
a slightly more active weather pattern appears to emerge and could
bring with it the chance for rain once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

With limited time due to the recent issuance of a severe
thunderstorm watch, have basically gone with continuity from the
previous set of TAFs. Added some definition for the first few
hours, and will take a closer look beyond the first 6 hours with
the next TAF issuance. As it stands right now, KTVF and KBJI look
to have the best chance for storms this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...NCR/DJR
AVIATION...Godon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
417 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-142130-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
417 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorm development will be possible across  North
Dakota and western Minnesota this evening, with most numerous
severe activity expected over northwestern Minnesota. Storms will
be capable of producing large hail of 2 inches and brief
tornadoes early in their development, eventually becoming a line
of thunderstorms producing wind gusts to 75 mph and heavy rain.
The line of thunderstorms will move further east into Minnesota
later in the evening, but additional severe storms could move into
eastern North Dakota from the west overnight after 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Scattered severe storms will be possible on Friday. The pattern
will become less active for the weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
414 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

MNZ001-002-NDZ030-132215-
West Polk MN-Norman MN-Traill ND-
414 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NORMAN...SOUTHWESTERN
POLK AND EASTERN TRAILL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grandin, or 28 miles north of Fargo, moving north at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph, and a weak funnel are
all possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hendrum around 415 PM CDT.
  Halstad around 435 PM CDT.
  Caledonia around 455 PM CDT.
  Shelly around 500 PM CDT.
  Nielsville and Climax around 515 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Grand Forks.

&&

LAT...LON 4721 9684 4723 9683 4723 9684 4724 9683
      4724 9705 4763 9693 4760 9656 4720 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 201DEG 16KT 4728 9693

GG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             FELTON                  47.08N 96.50W
08/13/2020  E0.75 INCH       CLAY               MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME SIZED HAIL NEAR FELTON. REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             2 NE FELTON             47.10N 96.47W
08/13/2020  E1.25 INCH       Clay               MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0650 PM     HAIL             5 NE GARY               47.42N 96.19W
08/13/2020  M1.00 INCH       Norman             MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
732 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             ST. HILAIRE             48.01N 96.21W
08/13/2020  E0.88 INCH       PENNINGTON         MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL. REPORT AND PHOTO POSTED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST