Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

520 
WWUS54 KEWX 282222
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
522 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXC137-271-463-465-282300-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-200528T2300Z/
Kinney TX-Uvalde TX-Edwards TX-Val Verde TX-
522 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR KINNEY...SOUTHWESTERN UVALDE...SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTIES...

At 522 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles north of Amanda to near Laguna, moving south
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Brackettville, Spofford, Laguna, Blewett, Amanda, Laughlin AFB,
Dabney, Cline, Anacacho, Standart, Alamo Village, Kickapoo Cavern
State Park, Turkey Mountain, Fort Clark Springs and Escondido
Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2969 10074 2951 9996 2910 9995 2923 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 359DEG 23KT 2949 10064 2939 9998 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BMW

085 
WWUS54 KEWX 282250
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
550 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXC137-463-282259-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-200528T2300Z/
Uvalde TX-Edwards TX-
550 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN UVALDE AND
SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2963 10075 2961 10054 2938 10053 2941 10078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 356DEG 11KT 2952 10069 

$$

TXC271-465-282300-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0204.000000T0000Z-200528T2300Z/
Kinney TX-Val Verde TX-
550 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN KINNEY AND SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTIES...

At 549 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of
Amanda, or 15 miles northeast of Del Rio, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Kinney and southeastern Val Verde Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 10075 2961 10054 2938 10053 2941 10078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 356DEG 11KT 2952 10069 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BMW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
231 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.UPDATE...
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm watch
for generally areas along and west of HWY 281, in addition to Hays,
Guadalupe, and Wilson Counties. This includes the San Antonio and Del
Rio metro areas. The watch runs through 10 pm tonight and highlights
the threat for hail up to 2 inches and 70 mph winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
After yesterday's severe weather event that left large swaths of
quarter sized hail or greater, several hail reports between 2-2.75
inches, and gusty winds in several spots it looks like there will be
one more round of strong to severe storms this evening before
quieter weather prevails tomorrow into the weekend.

With the pesky upper level low to the northeast of Texas, over the
Oklahoma/Arkansas border, it leaves South Central Texas in a
northwest flow pattern. Despite several rounds of storms over the
last few days southeasterly winds at the surface continue to allow
for plentiful moisture return between the rounds. Couple this with
lift associated with daytime heating and a boundary moving in from
the north, instability of between 2000-3000 j/KG, and just enough
shear to help the storms maintain the strength and you get the
recipe for the strong to severe storms today. Convective initiation
is already ongoing across San Angelo's area from San Angelo south to
Junction. This is earlier than really any of the convective allowing
models showed CI ongoing today. Several severe thunderstorm
warnings have already been issued for this activity.

The spread of the morning high resolution models really resolved
into 3 camps: 1) some (like the Texas Tech WRF) developed storms
into a complex that could dive to the southeast and impact areas
from San Antonio to Austin, 2) others (like many members of the 12z
SPC HREF) developed storms to the north of our area and took them
generally south through the Edwards Plateau along and west of HWY
281, 3) Lastly the HRRR has trended drier for most of its runs since
12z with only isolated storms through the evening. Just using
current radar trends with the activity over SJT's CWA the 2nd
scenario seems most likely. Outflows are driving the storms more to
the south and are kicking off additional storms. The 1st scenario
does remain feasible as the storms could come together developing a
cold pool, and drive to the southeast. The 12z/16z SPC updates take
this scenario into account as they extended the slight risk eastward
from just across the Rio Grande Plains to a Kerrville to San Antonio
to Cuero line. Trends will have to be monitored through the
afternoon, but still think that the best chances for storms will be
along and west of the HWY 281 corridor through the evening. An MCD
just issued by SPC highlights the risk of rapid updraft
intensification due to the steep lapse rates which would mainly lead
to a hail threat in the short term. If/when these storms grow
upscale and develop that cold pool and become a complex of storms
damaging thunderstorm winds would become the main concern.

All of this is occurring within the northwest flow aloft along the
leading edge of a weak front. Models show a distinct northerly wind
shift with drier and slightly cooler air working south later this
evening into the overnight behind the storms. This along with the
upper level ridge building in from the west as the upper low exits
tomorrow will squash any further rain chances and lead to a drying
trend for Friday into much of next week. With the drier air in place
afternoon highs should only climb into the mid to upper 80s to lower
90s for Friday and Saturday. This is very close to normal for this
time of the year. Looking back at the months of April and May our
County Warning Area was under a Marginal, Slight, or Enhanced risk
of severe storms from SPC over 50 percent of the days. As I said in
the morning update AFD I think most folks in South Central Texas
will welcome the quieter weather pattern and seasonable temperatures
through the middle of next week. Whether it has been the busy
emergency managers and local TV/private/NWS meteorologists or those
who have been impacted by the hail/wind/tornadoes over the last few
weeks it will give us all time to take a breath and enjoy the quiet
weather.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Fairly quiet weather pattern will be in place to start the long term
with an omega block setting up over the CONUS. An upper level ridge
will build over the middle of the US and a large upper level trough
over the Pacific and another over the Northeast US. The only feature
preventing a true omega block pattern setting up will be an inverted
trough that global models keep over Mexico and southern TX late this
weekend. The feature will slowly advect northward and push some
energy up into South-Central TX by early next week. Only have slight
chances for showers and storms in the forecast for Monday into
Tuesday for this.

Apart from this, a benign pattern will remain in place with high
temperatures running close to climatological normals and little to
no chance for rain. A much needed break from the active weather the
region has had over the last couple of weeks.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  87  65  87  66 /  20   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  86  64  87  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  87  64  88  64 /  30   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  85  62  86  63 /  10   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  92  67  93  68 /  40  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        65  86  62  87  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  90  64  92  66 /  30  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  86  64  88  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  86  65  88  65 /  20  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  88  66  90  67 /  30   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  89  67  90  68 /  30  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway
Long-Term...EWilliams
Decision Support...BMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-292015-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
312 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening along and west of a Fredericksburg to New
Braunfels to Cuero line. Main threats will include large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Heavy rainfall, especially from storms that
train over the same area, could cause localized flooding issues. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for these areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather expected for the extended forecast period at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             2 NNW KERRVILLE         30.07N 99.16W
05/28/2020  M1.00 INCH       KERR               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             1 W INGRAM              30.07N 99.25W
05/28/2020  M1.50 INCH       KERR               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW KERRVILLE-SCHREIN 29.97N 99.15W
05/28/2020                   KERR               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED ESTIMATED 60 MPH
            WINDS ALONG WITH PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR LOWER
            TURTLE CREEK RD AND DEER PARK LANE.

&&

PAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
427 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXZ183-282200-
Val Verde TX-
427 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 427 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Juno, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Devils River State Nat Area Del Norte and Bakers Crossing.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3005 10140 3014 10107 3009 10097 2987 10077
      2976 10123 2996 10138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 325DEG 31KT 3005 10107

02

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
446 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXZ187-203>205-218>220-282245-
Frio TX-Bexar TX-Atascosa TX-Uvalde TX-Medina TX-Bandera TX-
Zavala TX-
446 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEDINA...SOUTHEASTERN BANDERA...
SOUTHEASTERN UVALDE...NORTHEASTERN ZAVALA...NORTHERN FRIO...
NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA AND SOUTHWESTERN BEXAR COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorm
outflow winds from north of Sabinal to north of Hondo to near
Lakehillss, moving south at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this outflow.

Locations impacted include...
Hondo, Devine, Castroville, Lytle, Somerset, Sabinal, Natalia,
Lacoste, Moore, D'Hanis, Noonan, Quihi, Dunlay, Mico, Pearson, Bader,
Cliff, New Fountain, Bigfoot and Biry.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2950 9952 2949 9915 2968 9882 2906 9859
      2896 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 345DEG 22KT 2941 9914

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
453 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W HONDO               29.36N 99.18W
05/28/2020  M52 MPH          MEDINA             TX   ASOS

            THE HONDO ASOS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 52
            MPH FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

&&

PAY