Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

093 
WWUS54 KEWX 280634
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
134 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXC463-280700-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-200528T0700Z/
Uvalde TX-
134 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN UVALDE COUNTY...

At 134 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Uvalde Estates,
or 7 miles west of Uvalde, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Uvalde and Uvalde Estates. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2929 10001 2932 9981 2909 9972 2909 9999
TIME...MOT...LOC 0634Z 349DEG 23KT 2924 9989 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RUNYEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
The 06Z TAF update is mostly reactive and not heavily invested in the
model solutions in the first several hours. NW flow thunderstorms are
overacheiving tonight and there should be a canopy of high clouds to
minimize the formation of MVFR cigs through around daybreak. After
daybreak there could be some MVFR cigs, but outflow influences on
surface winds could lead to larg areas that remain VFR. By 18Z, all
areas should have returned to VFR skies. A late afternoon/early
evening Prob30 group was introduced to DRT/SAT/SSF based on the
latest HRRR output.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020/

UPDATE... /UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT NEW WATCH/
Some PoPs were increased along the I-10 corridor to account for the
latest severe thunderstorm watch.

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
Severe storm outbreak underway and looks to impact AUS as early as
0030Z and the SAT/SSF areas by 03Z. A lead storm moving south from
Fredericksburg may lead to a faster onset into San Antonio if the
recent severity trends continue. Will hold off any severe parameters
until about an hour lead time if necessary. Later tonight a period of
VFR skies should be followed by a return of MVFR cigs at all site
around daybreak. Confidence is not very high on this expected cloud
deck, given a light wind forecast and NW flow aloft.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Today brings yet another round for thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening for some. A cut off deepening low located on the eastern
border of Oklahoma today will leave the area under broad
northwesterly flow aloft. Low level flow becomes more southeasterly
over the next few hours further increasing deep layer shear, values
over 65kt, supporting healthy updrafts over an already unstable
environment. CAPE values across our northeastern counties range from
2500-3500J/kg with weak CIN. Ongoing severe storms to our north have
shown that any initiation will happen relatively quickly. The Storm
Prediction Center has the area under an enhanced risk northeast of a
line from Kerrville to New Braunfels to Schulenburg. This risk
includes very large hail, damaging winds in excess of 70mph and a
small risk for tornadoes. There is expected to be multiple rounds of
storms for this area, the first being triggered by an active outflow
boundary from storms to our north. Later this evening, individual
discrete cells pose a threat for very large hail up to 3 inches, as
lapse rates are quite steep, upwards of 7.5C/km. Tornadoes are
possible, though the threat is lower due to the weak low level shear,
and relatively dry boundary layer. As the evening progresses and
cells congeal, the threat becomes more focused on damaging wind up to
70mph.

Considering the wet pattern that this area has been over the past
several days, the threat of flash flooding should not be overlooked
through the chatter of severe weather. Austin in particular has had
measurable precip everyday for the past 6 days, totaling over 2
inches. If cells begin to train, or MCS slows over the metro area, or
any area for that matter, flash flooding may occur. WPC has
highlighted the northeastern counties in a marginal threat for
excessive rainfall. This means, that the highlighted area has a 5-10
percent chance of rainfall exceeding the flash flood guidance within
25 miles of a point. Stay weather aware, and Turn Around Don't
Drown.

Tomorrow should be relatively quiet with residual showers in the
coastal plains during the morning and early afternoon. Highs will be
slightly cooler than today, reaching the mid to upper 80s. By
tomorrow night, rain chances shift back out west with higher POPs
over the Rio Grande Plains. The entire region is under a marginal
risk for severe storms.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
After an extended period of active weather, mid to upper level
ridging builds in by Friday and will continue through the weekend and
into next week. While a few isolated locations could see a stray
shower or thunderstorm during this period, by and large the region
should stay dry. Temperatures Friday through Monday will track
closely to seasonal normals with temperatures increasing a couple
degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  87  65  89  66 /  10  -    0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  87  65  88  65 /  10  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  88  65  88  66 /  10  -    0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            64  84  62  86  63 /  10  -    0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  92  68  93  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  86  63  87  65 /  10  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  92  65  92  67 /  30  10   0  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  88  64  88  65 /  10  -    0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  87  66  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  90  67  90  68 /  20  10   0  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           70  90  67  91  69 /  20  10   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...Oaks
Decision Support...Runyen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
453 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
453 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening for the eastern two-thirds of the area, primarily for
locations along and east of a Juno to Uvalde to Pearsall
line. An Enhanced Risk For Severe Thunderstorms exists along and
east of Kerrville to New Braunfels to Schulenburg line. Very
large hail, significant damaging wind gusts, and an isolated
tornado or two will all be possible. Locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather expected for the extended forecast period at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 AM     HAIL             2 SE GEORGETOWN         30.63N 97.65W
05/28/2020  E1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

&&

PAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1227 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             2 WNW SERENADA          30.71N 97.73W
05/28/2020  E2.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1229 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     HAIL             2 S GEORGETOWN          30.61N 97.69W
05/28/2020  E2.50 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER POSTED A PHOTO OF A 2.5 INCH
            SIZED HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF THE CITY OF
            GEORGETOWN.

&&

OB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1236 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     HAIL             2 ENE SERENADA          30.71N 97.66W
05/28/2020  E2.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED A REPORT AND PHOTO THROUGH TWEETER
            WITH A 2 INCH SIZED HAIL NEAR GEORGETOWN.

&&

OB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1236 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXZ173-192-193-280615-
Bastrop TX-Williamson TX-Travis TX-
1236 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON...
NORTHEASTERN TRAVIS AND NORTH CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM
CDT...

At 1236 AM CDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm over Hutto,
or near Round Rock, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Pflugerville, Taylor, Elgin, Windemere, Hutto,
Manor, Coupland, Webberville, Rices Crossing and Wells Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3043 9725 3040 9733 3037 9727 3037 9728
      3021 9748 3051 9772 3063 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 316DEG 21KT 3052 9758

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     HAIL             2 ENE SERENADA          30.71N 97.66W
05/28/2020  E2.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 2 ENE
            SERENADA. RECEIVED A REPORT AND PHOTO
            THROUGH TWITTER WITH A 2 INCH SIZED HAIL
            NEAR GEORGETOWN.

&&

OB