Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

038 
WWUS54 KEWX 280129
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
829 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

TXC209-453-280138-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-200528T0200Z/
Hays TX-Travis TX-
829 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HAYS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TRAVIS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2963 9759 2967 9765 2966 9768 2969 9773
      2970 9774 2971 9773 2972 9776 2975 9778
      2994 9780 2999 9776 3002 9771 3007 9767
      2975 9739
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 322DEG 27KT 2989 9768 

$$

TXC055-280200-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-200528T0200Z/
Caldwell TX-
829 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR CALDWELL COUNTY...

At 828 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lockhart,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lockhart, Luling, Uhland, Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, Fentress,
Brownsboro, Joliet, Tilmon, Stairtown, Maxwell, McNeil, McMahan,
Lytton Springs, Dale and Mendoza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9759 2967 9765 2966 9768 2969 9773
      2970 9774 2971 9773 2972 9776 2975 9778
      2994 9780 2999 9776 3002 9771 3007 9767
      2975 9739
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 322DEG 27KT 2989 9768 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAMPSHIRE

601 
WWUS54 KEWX 280139
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
839 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

TXC055-280200-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0172.000000T0000Z-200528T0200Z/
Caldwell TX-
839 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY...

At 839 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lockhart,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lockhart, Luling, Brownsboro, McMahan, Joliet, Tilmon, Dale and
McNeil.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2966 9767 2972 9771 2980 9773 2999 9761
      2975 9739 2963 9759 2967 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 319DEG 25KT 2983 9762 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAMPSHIRE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
704 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.UPDATE... /UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT NEW WATCH/
Some PoPs were increased along the I-10 corridor to account for the
latest severe thunderstorm watch.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
Severe storm outbreak underway and looks to impact AUS as early as
0030Z and the SAT/SSF areas by 03Z. A lead storm moving south from
Fredericksburg may lead to a faster onset into San Antonio if the
recent severity trends continue. Will hold off any severe parameters
until about an hour lead time if necessary. Later tonight a period of
VFR skies should be followed by a return of MVFR cigs at all site
around daybreak. Confidence is not very high on this expected cloud
deck, given a light wind forecast and NW flow aloft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Today brings yet another round for thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening for some. A cut off deepening low located on the eastern
border of Oklahoma today will leave the area under broad
northwesterly flow aloft. Low level flow becomes more southeasterly
over the next few hours further increasing deep layer shear, values
over 65kt, supporting healthy updrafts over an already unstable
environment. CAPE values across our northeastern counties range from
2500-3500J/kg with weak CIN. Ongoing severe storms to our north have
shown that any initiation will happen relatively quickly. The Storm
Prediction Center has the area under an enhanced risk northeast of a
line from Kerrville to New Braunfels to Schulenburg. This risk
includes very large hail, damaging winds in excess of 70mph and a
small risk for tornadoes. There is expected to be multiple rounds of
storms for this area, the first being triggered by an active outflow
boundary from storms to our north. Later this evening, individual
discrete cells pose a threat for very large hail up to 3 inches, as
lapse rates are quite steep, upwards of 7.5C/km. Tornadoes are
possible, though the threat is lower due to the weak low level shear,
and relatively dry boundary layer. As the evening progresses and
cells congeal, the threat becomes more focused on damaging wind up to
70mph.

Considering the wet pattern that this area has been over the past
several days, the threat of flash flooding should not be overlooked
through the chatter of severe weather. Austin in particular has had
measurable precip everyday for the past 6 days, totaling over 2
inches. If cells begin to train, or MCS slows over the metro area, or
any area for that matter, flash flooding may occur. WPC has
highlighted the northeastern counties in a marginal threat for
excessive rainfall. This means, that the highlighted area has a 5-10
percent chance of rainfall exceeding the flash flood guidance within
25 miles of a point. Stay weather aware, and Turn Around Don't
Drown.

Tomorrow should be relatively quiet with residual showers in the
coastal plains during the morning and early afternoon. Highs will be
slightly cooler than today, reaching the mid to upper 80s. By
tomorrow night, rain chances shift back out west with higher POPs
over the Rio Grande Plains. The entire region is under a marginal
risk for severe storms.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
After an extended period of active weather, mid to upper level
ridging builds in by Friday and will continue through the weekend and
into next week. While a few isolated locations could see a stray
shower or thunderstorm during this period, by and large the region
should stay dry. Temperatures Friday through Monday will track
closely to seasonal normals with temperatures increasing a couple
degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  85  67  87  65 /  80  20  10  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  84  66  87  65 /  80  30  10  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  85  67  88  65 /  70  20  10  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  83  64  84  62 /  80  10  10  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  91  70  92  68 /  -   10  40  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  83  66  86  63 /  90  20  10  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  89  68  92  65 /  20  10  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  84  66  88  64 /  80  20  10  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  84  67  87  66 /  60  30  10  10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  87  69  90  67 /  50  10  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  89  70  90  67 /  40  10  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...Oaks
Decision Support...Treadway

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
453 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
453 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening for the eastern two-thirds of the area, primarily for
locations along and east of a Juno to Uvalde to Pearsall
line. An Enhanced Risk For Severe Thunderstorms exists along and
east of Kerrville to New Braunfels to Schulenburg line. Very
large hail, significant damaging wind gusts, and an isolated
tornado or two will all be possible. Locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather expected for the extended forecast period at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
748 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             3 E MOUNTAIN HOME       30.18N 99.33W
05/27/2020  E1.00 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
752 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     HAIL             3 E MOUNTAIN HOME       30.18N 99.33W
05/27/2020  U1.50 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: PING PONG BALL (1.50
            IN.).

&&

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
757 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             3 SSE WARING            29.91N 98.79W
05/27/2020  E1.00 INCH       KENDALL            TX   PUBLIC

&&

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
759 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             1 W INGRAM              30.08N 99.26W
05/27/2020  U1.00 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
801 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             7 NE INGRAM             30.15N 99.16W
05/27/2020  E1.50 INCH       GILLESPIE          TX   PUBLIC

&&

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
802 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             6 NNE BOERNE            29.87N 98.68W
05/27/2020  E1.00 INCH       KENDALL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HAMPSHIRE