Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

932 
WWUS54 KEWX 280714
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
214 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXC463-280724-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-200528T0800Z/
Uvalde TX-
214 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UVALDE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 2909 9996 2909 9974 2883 9962 2880 9991
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 344DEG 16KT 2905 9984 

$$

TXC507-280800-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-200528T0800Z/
Zavala TX-
214 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZAVALA COUNTY...

At 214 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Washer, or 7
miles north of La Pryor, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
La Pryor and Washer. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2909 9996 2909 9974 2883 9962 2880 9991
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 344DEG 16KT 2905 9984 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

RUNYEN

771 
WWUS54 KEWX 280722
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
222 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXC507-280732-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0194.000000T0000Z-200528T0800Z/
Zavala TX-
222 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZAVALA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2909 9996 2909 9974 2883 9962 2880 9991
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 351DEG 16KT 2901 9983 

$$

RUNYEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1250 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
The 06Z TAF update is mostly reactive and not heavily invested in the
model solutions in the first several hours. NW flow thunderstorms are
overacheiving tonight and there should be a canopy of high clouds to
minimize the formation of MVFR cigs through around daybreak. After
daybreak there could be some MVFR cigs, but outflow influences on
surface winds could lead to larg areas that remain VFR. By 18Z, all
areas should have returned to VFR skies. A late afternoon/early
evening Prob30 group was introduced to DRT/SAT/SSF based on the
latest HRRR output.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020/

UPDATE... /UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT NEW WATCH/
Some PoPs were increased along the I-10 corridor to account for the
latest severe thunderstorm watch.

AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
Severe storm outbreak underway and looks to impact AUS as early as
0030Z and the SAT/SSF areas by 03Z. A lead storm moving south from
Fredericksburg may lead to a faster onset into San Antonio if the
recent severity trends continue. Will hold off any severe parameters
until about an hour lead time if necessary. Later tonight a period of
VFR skies should be followed by a return of MVFR cigs at all site
around daybreak. Confidence is not very high on this expected cloud
deck, given a light wind forecast and NW flow aloft.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Today brings yet another round for thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening for some. A cut off deepening low located on the eastern
border of Oklahoma today will leave the area under broad
northwesterly flow aloft. Low level flow becomes more southeasterly
over the next few hours further increasing deep layer shear, values
over 65kt, supporting healthy updrafts over an already unstable
environment. CAPE values across our northeastern counties range from
2500-3500J/kg with weak CIN. Ongoing severe storms to our north have
shown that any initiation will happen relatively quickly. The Storm
Prediction Center has the area under an enhanced risk northeast of a
line from Kerrville to New Braunfels to Schulenburg. This risk
includes very large hail, damaging winds in excess of 70mph and a
small risk for tornadoes. There is expected to be multiple rounds of
storms for this area, the first being triggered by an active outflow
boundary from storms to our north. Later this evening, individual
discrete cells pose a threat for very large hail up to 3 inches, as
lapse rates are quite steep, upwards of 7.5C/km. Tornadoes are
possible, though the threat is lower due to the weak low level shear,
and relatively dry boundary layer. As the evening progresses and
cells congeal, the threat becomes more focused on damaging wind up to
70mph.

Considering the wet pattern that this area has been over the past
several days, the threat of flash flooding should not be overlooked
through the chatter of severe weather. Austin in particular has had
measurable precip everyday for the past 6 days, totaling over 2
inches. If cells begin to train, or MCS slows over the metro area, or
any area for that matter, flash flooding may occur. WPC has
highlighted the northeastern counties in a marginal threat for
excessive rainfall. This means, that the highlighted area has a 5-10
percent chance of rainfall exceeding the flash flood guidance within
25 miles of a point. Stay weather aware, and Turn Around Don't
Drown.

Tomorrow should be relatively quiet with residual showers in the
coastal plains during the morning and early afternoon. Highs will be
slightly cooler than today, reaching the mid to upper 80s. By
tomorrow night, rain chances shift back out west with higher POPs
over the Rio Grande Plains. The entire region is under a marginal
risk for severe storms.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
After an extended period of active weather, mid to upper level
ridging builds in by Friday and will continue through the weekend and
into next week. While a few isolated locations could see a stray
shower or thunderstorm during this period, by and large the region
should stay dry. Temperatures Friday through Monday will track
closely to seasonal normals with temperatures increasing a couple
degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  87  65  89  66 /  10  -    0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  87  65  88  65 /  10  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  88  65  88  66 /  10  -    0  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            64  84  62  86  63 /  10  -    0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  92  68  93  68 /  40  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        66  86  63  87  65 /  10  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  92  65  92  67 /  30  10   0  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  88  64  88  65 /  10  -    0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  87  66  88  67 /  10  10  -   -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  90  67  90  68 /  20  10   0  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           70  90  67  91  69 /  20  10   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...Oaks
Decision Support...Runyen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
453 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
453 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening for the eastern two-thirds of the area, primarily for
locations along and east of a Juno to Uvalde to Pearsall
line. An Enhanced Risk For Severe Thunderstorms exists along and
east of Kerrville to New Braunfels to Schulenburg line. Very
large hail, significant damaging wind gusts, and an isolated
tornado or two will all be possible. Locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather expected for the extended forecast period at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1236 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

TXZ173-192-193-280615-
Bastrop TX-Williamson TX-Travis TX-
1236 AM CDT Thu May 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WILLIAMSON...
NORTHEASTERN TRAVIS AND NORTH CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM
CDT...

At 1236 AM CDT, the public reported a strong thunderstorm over Hutto,
or near Round Rock, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Pflugerville, Taylor, Elgin, Windemere, Hutto,
Manor, Coupland, Webberville, Rices Crossing and Wells Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3043 9725 3040 9733 3037 9727 3037 9728
      3021 9748 3051 9772 3063 9756
TIME...MOT...LOC 0536Z 316DEG 21KT 3052 9758

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1243 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 AM     HAIL             2 ENE SERENADA          30.71N 97.66W
05/28/2020  E2.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM 2 ENE
            SERENADA. RECEIVED A REPORT AND PHOTO
            THROUGH TWITTER WITH A 2 INCH SIZED HAIL
            NEAR GEORGETOWN.

&&

OB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
126 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE SHAVANO PARK       29.61N 98.53W
05/27/2020                   BEXAR              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA SHARED A PHOTO OF A LARGE
            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            CROSSTIMBER AND PLUMBROOK IN NORTHERN SAN
            ANTONIO.

&&

PAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
132 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 AM     HAIL             4 E BARKSDALE           29.72N 99.97W
05/28/2020  M1.75 INCH       REAL               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL NEAR
            CAMP WOOD.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
142 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE GONZALES          29.49N 97.36W
05/27/2020                   GONZALES           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER REPORT OF ROOF RIPPED OFF A HORSE
            BARN NEAR ALT HWY 90 AND CR 345.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
149 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 AM     HAIL             2 SW UVALDE             29.20N 99.81W
05/28/2020  E0.75 INCH       UVALDE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JR