Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

550 
WGUS74 KEWX 280401
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1101 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

TXC171-280700-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200528T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gillespie TX-
1101 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR 
WESTERN GILLESPIE COUNTY...

At 1101 PM CDT, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms 
produced heavy rain across the warned area. Residual runoff is 
leading to Flash flooding.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Trained spotters.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Fredericksburg, Tivydale, Harper, Doss and Grapetown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small 
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying 
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3050 9904 3014 9881 3014 9901 3014 9903
      3014 9921 3013 9930 3036 9930 3044 9930
      3050 9930 3050 9928 3050 9925 3050 9924
      3050 9913 3050 9909

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

HAMPSHIRE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
704 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

.UPDATE... /UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT NEW WATCH/
Some PoPs were increased along the I-10 corridor to account for the
latest severe thunderstorm watch.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
Severe storm outbreak underway and looks to impact AUS as early as
0030Z and the SAT/SSF areas by 03Z. A lead storm moving south from
Fredericksburg may lead to a faster onset into San Antonio if the
recent severity trends continue. Will hold off any severe parameters
until about an hour lead time if necessary. Later tonight a period of
VFR skies should be followed by a return of MVFR cigs at all site
around daybreak. Confidence is not very high on this expected cloud
deck, given a light wind forecast and NW flow aloft.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Today brings yet another round for thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening for some. A cut off deepening low located on the eastern
border of Oklahoma today will leave the area under broad
northwesterly flow aloft. Low level flow becomes more southeasterly
over the next few hours further increasing deep layer shear, values
over 65kt, supporting healthy updrafts over an already unstable
environment. CAPE values across our northeastern counties range from
2500-3500J/kg with weak CIN. Ongoing severe storms to our north have
shown that any initiation will happen relatively quickly. The Storm
Prediction Center has the area under an enhanced risk northeast of a
line from Kerrville to New Braunfels to Schulenburg. This risk
includes very large hail, damaging winds in excess of 70mph and a
small risk for tornadoes. There is expected to be multiple rounds of
storms for this area, the first being triggered by an active outflow
boundary from storms to our north. Later this evening, individual
discrete cells pose a threat for very large hail up to 3 inches, as
lapse rates are quite steep, upwards of 7.5C/km. Tornadoes are
possible, though the threat is lower due to the weak low level shear,
and relatively dry boundary layer. As the evening progresses and
cells congeal, the threat becomes more focused on damaging wind up to
70mph.

Considering the wet pattern that this area has been over the past
several days, the threat of flash flooding should not be overlooked
through the chatter of severe weather. Austin in particular has had
measurable precip everyday for the past 6 days, totaling over 2
inches. If cells begin to train, or MCS slows over the metro area, or
any area for that matter, flash flooding may occur. WPC has
highlighted the northeastern counties in a marginal threat for
excessive rainfall. This means, that the highlighted area has a 5-10
percent chance of rainfall exceeding the flash flood guidance within
25 miles of a point. Stay weather aware, and Turn Around Don't
Drown.

Tomorrow should be relatively quiet with residual showers in the
coastal plains during the morning and early afternoon. Highs will be
slightly cooler than today, reaching the mid to upper 80s. By
tomorrow night, rain chances shift back out west with higher POPs
over the Rio Grande Plains. The entire region is under a marginal
risk for severe storms.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
After an extended period of active weather, mid to upper level
ridging builds in by Friday and will continue through the weekend and
into next week. While a few isolated locations could see a stray
shower or thunderstorm during this period, by and large the region
should stay dry. Temperatures Friday through Monday will track
closely to seasonal normals with temperatures increasing a couple
degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  85  67  87  65 /  80  20  10  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  84  66  87  65 /  80  30  10  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  85  67  88  65 /  70  20  10  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            64  83  64  84  62 /  80  10  10  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  91  70  92  68 /  -   10  40  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  83  66  86  63 /  90  20  10  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  89  68  92  65 /  20  10  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  84  66  88  64 /  80  20  10  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  84  67  87  66 /  60  30  10  10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  87  69  90  67 /  50  10  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  89  70  90  67 /  40  10  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...Oaks
Decision Support...Treadway

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
453 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-281000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
453 AM CDT Wed May 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening for the eastern two-thirds of the area, primarily for
locations along and east of a Juno to Uvalde to Pearsall
line. An Enhanced Risk For Severe Thunderstorms exists along and
east of Kerrville to New Braunfels to Schulenburg line. Very
large hail, significant damaging wind gusts, and an isolated
tornado or two will all be possible. Locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather expected for the extended forecast period at
this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
936 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     HAIL             2 N ALAMO HEIGHTS       29.52N 98.46W
05/27/2020  E2.00 INCH       BEXAR              TX   PUBLIC

            410 AND BROADWAY.

&&

HAMPSHIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
951 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

TXZ225-280330-
Lavaca TX-
951 PM CDT Wed May 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAVACA COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 951 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hallettsville, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hallettsville, Sublime, Vienna and Vsetin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2928 9664 2944 9701 2963 9693 2963 9691
      2961 9684 2958 9683 2958 9679 2934 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 291DEG 24KT 2950 9689

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
954 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             2 S KIRBY               29.44N 98.38W
05/27/2020  E1.50 INCH       BEXAR              TX   PUBLIC

            MARTINDALE ARMY AIR FIELD.

&&

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             5 NW ELMENDORF          29.31N 98.39W
05/27/2020  E1.00 INCH       BEXAR              TX   PUBLIC

&&

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
956 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             1 E TERRELL HILLS       29.48N 98.42W
05/27/2020  E1.75 INCH       BEXAR              TX   PUBLIC

            FT. SAM HOUSTON.

&&

HAMPSHIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1008 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             UTOPIA                  29.61N 99.53W
05/27/2020  E1.00 INCH       UVALDE             TX   PUBLIC

&&

HAMPSHIRE