Gale Warning 216, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Feb 28, 2020, 2:44 PM AKST (23:44 UTC)

Expired

Feb 29, 2020, 3:30 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

289 
FZAK52 PAFC 282344
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-291230-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 mb low 140 nm west of Adak moves 230 nm northwest of Adak and
phases with a stronger 970 mb low located 120 nm south of Adak Fri
night. This low deepens to 960 mb and moves 200 nm southwest of
Saint Paul Island Sat afternoon. The low then moves 75 nm east of
Saint Paul Island at 965 mb Sat night and then moves inland over 
Southwest Alaska Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-291230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-291230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. From 
the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt after 
midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft building to 35 ft after
midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, seas 20 ft building to 27
ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-291230-
Bristol Bay-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt.
.MON...W wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-291230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and 
rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt except SW 45 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 14 ft building to 34 ft after midnight. From Port Moller E, 
seas 10 ft building to 18 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 60 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-291230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft 
building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 60 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 60 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-291230-
Unalaska Bay-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt around noon. Seas 3 ft 
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-291230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft
building to 28 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-291230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft
building to 27 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-291230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft 
building to 34 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-291230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-291230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft building to 32 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-291230-
Adak to Kiska-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Bering side,
seas 10 ft. Pacific side, seas 11 ft building to 17 ft in the 
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-291230-
Kiska to Attu-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft Bering side...13 ft Pacific side.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-291230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt by late evening. Seas 6
ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 11 ft
building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-291230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Snow.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-291230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.MON...N wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-291230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 40 kt. Seas 
in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 28, 7:35 AM AKST, 7 hours 9 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
735 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge of high pressure aloft was centered over Nunivak Island
this morning, with said ridge extending northwest to Russia, and
through the Alaska Peninsula. A secondary ridge was centered
across the north Pacific, and it was building north into the
central Bering Sea and Nunivak Island as well.

Flanking these ridges were a pair of low pressure systems. The
first of which was a weak 1000 mb low just west of Yakutat, and
this system was quickly trekking towards that location while also
weakening. A stronger 985 mb low was centered a few hundred miles
south of Shemya. Otherwise, colder air continued to filter into
the Kuskokwim River Valley, and the northern Susitna Valley from
the north. Here, several locations were below zero, with many
reporting temperatures in the negative teens.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

In the short term (through the weekend), the models remain in good
agreement at the surface and aloft in their forecast depictions,
but there has been a change with how they handle a north Pacific
low moving into the Bering. This morning's numerical runs have
shifted the track of this low further east, and not have the low
crossing the Aleutians near Adak, then take it towards Cape
Newenham.

This is at least a couple hundred miles to the east of yesterday's
assortment of solutions. This sudden shift has also resulted in
increased uncertainty to where and if a new triple point low forms
in the northern Gulf or Prince William Sound vicinity.

Heading into next week, the models are in better than average
agreement in the synoptic pattern, with the main difference this
morning being a portrayal of a deeper mid-level low or trough,
diving southeast across the central and southern portions of the
state. Should this verify, another Arctic plunge of air into our
neck of the woods would be likely. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

There will be generally quiet weather over Southcentral Alaska
today with just a few areas of lower clouds near Kachemak Bay and
also the Matanuska Valley early this morning which are expected to
clear out by mid-morning. Some lingering snow showers were in the
eastern Copper River Basin overnight and early this morning, but
they too should move east and out of the area by afternoon. There
is some gusty winds through channeled terrain such as near Seward
and through Thompson Pass, but that is about it for today.

The quiet weather will start to change tomorrow with the approach
of a strong front from the southwest. This will bring some
snowfall to Kodiak by late tonight/early Saturday morning and then
turn to rain by Saturday afternoon. This front will remain over
the northern Gulf and not penetrate inland so even though Kodiak
will turn to rain, the rest of Southcentral should remain all
snow. Some of the snow may be occasionally heavy over the Kenai
Peninsula Saturday night into Sunday, but it is still a little far
out to call for a winter weather advisory as overall snowfall
accumulation rates look to remain under advisory thresholds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

One more day of dry conditions. Looming on the horizon, there is a
low in the North Pacific that will move into the Bering tonight
and continue to close in on Southwest Alaska. The models continue
to depict the leading edge of the precipitation shield moving into
Bristol Bay and Y-K Delta early Saturday. Generally expecting
snow but portions of the AKPEN and Bristol Bay will see a mixed
P-type. More precipitation expected Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

An active weather pattern is on deck this forecast period. A low
southwest of Adak is going to deepen and sweep across the chain.
The pressure gradient will be strong enough to produce widespread
gales and areas of storm force winds. Looking at satellite
imagery, there is an extensive fetch of tropical moisture
associated with this system. The PWs (precipitable water) ranges
from 1-1.7 inches and the source region for this moisture is
Micronesia. The airmass is being modified as it comes north, but
make no mistake this is a juicy system. As time elapses, cold air
will get entrained into the backside of the low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sun through Tue)...
Gale force winds will continue around the low
in the western
Bering on Sunday then diminish to small craft range Sunday night.
Gales are expected from south of the Alaska Peninsula through the
Gulf Sunday and Sunday night associated with a low in the northern
Gulf. Winds are expected to be near storm force in the offshore
waters of the Gulf Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Mon through Thu)...

An upper level trough will dig into southern Alaska Monday and
Tuesday then slide east Wednesday and Thursday, with the axis near
the Canadian border Thursday afternoon. High pressure over
extreme northeast Russia on Monday will slide eastward behind this
trough, pushing into the western Bering on Tuesday and into
western Alaska by Thursday. The Ensemble means are in fairly good
agreement, but the deterministic models are all over the place on
the details. Therefore the forecast confidence past Tuesday is
rather low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 191.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 130 132 150 155 165 170>179 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 121 130 150 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2020Every gale warning in 2020

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.