Storm Warning 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

615 
FZAK62 PAFC 291254
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010200-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 51N 177W Sat morning moves to 58N 167W at 968 mb
Sun morning, then moves to moves into southwest Alaska Sun
afternoon. A front moves through the eastern Aleutians and Bering
through Sun morning. A new 990 mb low forms Sun morning at 53N 
179E, then moves to 52N 176W at 999 mb Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-010200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming NE 35 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 to 20
ft. Rain showers and snow.
.SUN...W wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to
11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.

$$

868 
FZAK62 PAFC 010048
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011345-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 55N 173W will move to 58N 165W at 969 mb Saturday
night. The low will then move inland over the Kuskokwim Delta
Sunday morning. A 990 mb low will develop near 53N 180W Saturday
night and move to 50N 174W at 1007 mb Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight. Seas
17 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.  and rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray north of 58N.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 58N.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 57N.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 to 21
ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow and rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 to 17 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9
ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 0 to 5
ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

675 
FZAK62 PAFC 011234
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020200-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 58N 164W will move into southwest Alaska Sun
afternoon. A 994 mb low Sun Morning at 53N 178W moves to 52N 178 at 
1001 mb Mon morning, then to 50N 171W at 1017 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 58N.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 57N.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 58N.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 to 17 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
735 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A ridge of high pressure aloft was centered over Nunivak Island
this morning, with said ridge extending northwest to Russia, and
through the Alaska Peninsula. A secondary ridge was centered
across the north Pacific, and it was building north into the
central Bering Sea and Nunivak Island as well.

Flanking these ridges were a pair of low pressure systems. The
first of which was a weak 1000 mb low just west of Yakutat, and
this system was quickly trekking towards that location while also
weakening. A stronger 985 mb low was centered a few hundred miles
south of Shemya. Otherwise, colder air continued to filter into
the Kuskokwim River Valley, and the northern Susitna Valley from
the north. Here, several locations were below zero, with many
reporting temperatures in the negative teens.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

In the short term (through the weekend), the models remain in good
agreement at the surface and aloft in their forecast depictions,
but there has been a change with how they handle a north Pacific
low moving into the Bering. This morning's numerical runs have
shifted the track of this low further east, and not have the low
crossing the Aleutians near Adak, then take it towards Cape
Newenham.

This is at least a couple hundred miles to the east of yesterday's
assortment of solutions. This sudden shift has also resulted in
increased uncertainty to where and if a new triple point low forms
in the northern Gulf or Prince William Sound vicinity.

Heading into next week, the models are in better than average
agreement in the synoptic pattern, with the main difference this
morning being a portrayal of a deeper mid-level low or trough,
diving southeast across the central and southern portions of the
state. Should this verify, another Arctic plunge of air into our
neck of the woods would be likely. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

There will be generally quiet weather over Southcentral Alaska
today with just a few areas of lower clouds near Kachemak Bay and
also the Matanuska Valley early this morning which are expected to
clear out by mid-morning. Some lingering snow showers were in the
eastern Copper River Basin overnight and early this morning, but
they too should move east and out of the area by afternoon. There
is some gusty winds through channeled terrain such as near Seward
and through Thompson Pass, but that is about it for today.

The quiet weather will start to change tomorrow with the approach
of a strong front from the southwest. This will bring some
snowfall to Kodiak by late tonight/early Saturday morning and then
turn to rain by Saturday afternoon. This front will remain over
the northern Gulf and not penetrate inland so even though Kodiak
will turn to rain, the rest of Southcentral should remain all
snow. Some of the snow may be occasionally heavy over the Kenai
Peninsula Saturday night into Sunday, but it is still a little far
out to call for a winter weather advisory as overall snowfall
accumulation rates look to remain under advisory thresholds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

One more day of dry conditions. Looming on the horizon, there is a
low in the North Pacific that will move into the Bering tonight
and continue to close in on Southwest Alaska. The models continue
to depict the leading edge of the precipitation shield moving into
Bristol Bay and Y-K Delta early Saturday. Generally expecting
snow but portions of the AKPEN and Bristol Bay will see a mixed
P-type. More precipitation expected Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

An active weather pattern is on deck this forecast period. A low
southwest of Adak is going to deepen and sweep across the chain.
The pressure gradient will be strong enough to produce widespread
gales and areas of storm force winds. Looking at satellite
imagery, there is an extensive fetch of tropical moisture
associated with this system. The PWs (precipitable water) ranges
from 1-1.7 inches and the source region for this moisture is
Micronesia. The airmass is being modified as it comes north, but
make no mistake this is a juicy system. As time elapses, cold air
will get entrained into the backside of the low.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sun through Tue)...
Gale force winds will continue around the low
in the western
Bering on Sunday then diminish to small craft range Sunday night.
Gales are expected from south of the Alaska Peninsula through the
Gulf Sunday and Sunday night associated with a low in the northern
Gulf. Winds are expected to be near storm force in the offshore
waters of the Gulf Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Mon through Thu)...

An upper level trough will dig into southern Alaska Monday and
Tuesday then slide east Wednesday and Thursday, with the axis near
the Canadian border Thursday afternoon. High pressure over
extreme northeast Russia on Monday will slide eastward behind this
trough, pushing into the western Bering on Tuesday and into
western Alaska by Thursday. The Ensemble means are in fairly good
agreement, but the deterministic models are all over the place on
the details. Therefore the forecast confidence past Tuesday is
rather low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 191.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 130 132 150 155 165 170>179 185.
 Heavy Freezing Spray 121 130 150 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL