Gale Warning 133, NWS Anchorage, AK

035 
FZAK62 PAFC 282342
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
242 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-291430-
242 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 53N 179W moves to 54N 179E and phases with a
stronger 970 mb low located at 49N 176W Fri night. This low
deepens to 960 mb and moves to 54N 174W Sat afternoon. The low 
then moves to 58N 166W at 965 mb Sat night and then moves inland 
over Southwest Alaska Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-291430-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
242 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-291430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
242 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Snow and rain
showers.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming NE 35 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-291430-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
242 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-291430-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
242 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Heavy freezing spray near the ice edge. Rain and snow showers.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 to
20 ft. Rain showers and snow.
.SUN...W wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to
11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.

$$

615 
FZAK62 PAFC 291254
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-010200-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 51N 177W Sat morning moves to 58N 167W at 968 mb
Sun morning, then moves to moves into southwest Alaska Sun
afternoon. A front moves through the eastern Aleutians and Bering
through Sun morning. A new 990 mb low forms Sun morning at 53N 
179E, then moves to 52N 176W at 999 mb Mon morning.

$$

PKZ411-010200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-010200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming NE 35 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

$$

PKZ413-010200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-010200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 to 20
ft. Rain showers and snow.
.SUN...W wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to
11 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.

$$

868 
FZAK62 PAFC 010048
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011345-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 55N 173W will move to 58N 165W at 969 mb Saturday
night. The low will then move inland over the Kuskokwim Delta
Sunday morning. A 990 mb low will develop near 53N 180W Saturday
night and move to 50N 174W at 1007 mb Monday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight. Seas
17 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.  and rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray north of 58N.
.SUN...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 58N.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 57N.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming N 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
348 PM AKST Sat Feb 29 2020

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 to 21
ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow and rain showers.
.SUN...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 to 17 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9
ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 0 to 5
ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

675 
FZAK62 PAFC 011234
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-020200-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 mb low at 58N 164W will move into southwest Alaska Sun
afternoon. A 994 mb low Sun Morning at 53N 178W moves to 52N 178 at 
1001 mb Mon morning, then to 50N 171W at 1017 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ411-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 58N.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray
north of 57N.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray north of 58N.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-020200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
334 AM AKST Sun Mar 1 2020

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 to 17 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 PM AKST Thu Feb 27 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper trough and associated surface low moving eastward over
the Gulf are still kicking off a few snow showers along the
eastern Gulf Coast. Generally fair skies were observed elsewhere
across Southcentral and across much of the southern Mainland.
Gusty outflow winds associated with the retreating low over the
Gulf were observed over the eastern Kenai Peninsula. A broad upper
through and weakening surface lows extended from west of Attu to
over the eastern Aleutians. Satellite imagery shows the early
stages of development of a surface low along a broad frontal
boundary over the western north Pacific.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The most notable model difference occur Friday and Saturday with
the next low brewing over the western Pacific. This system
develops under a fairly strong upper jet and heads into the Bering
Sea later Friday. Center positioning of low is still in question,
but confidence at this point is moderate to high on gale to storm
force wind potential across the Aleutians and Bering Friday into
Saturday. Accumulating snow potential still looks reasonable for
Saturday and Saturday night from Bristol Bay to portions of
Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions are expected through this evening.
There is a possibility of IFR/LIFR ceiling and/or visibilities in
fog Friday morning. Light winds should prevail over the next 24
hrs.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Clear and dry conditions will prevail across much of Southcentral
through the first half of Saturday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western half of the state. For the Copper River
Basin and Delta, scattered cloud cover and the threat for an
isolated to scattered snow shower will remain in the forecast
through early tomorrow morning as a weak shortwave dives across
the eastern half of Southcentral overnight. With the ridge
situated over the interior and a surface low lingering in the
eastern Gulf, gusty northerly outflow winds will persist along the
immediate coast. With mainly clear and dry conditions for most of
the region, temperatures overnight tonight and tomorrow night
will drop to near zero around Cook Inlet to well below zero across
the Susitna Valley, interior Kenai Peninsula, and Copper River
Basin. High temperatures the next two days will range from the
single digits in the Copper River Basin, to lower to mid 20s from
Cook Inlet north to the Susitna Valley, to lower to mid 30s for
Kodiak City.

A frontal system is slated to enter the western Gulf late Friday
night, first impacting Kodiak Island with a mix of rain and snow
and gusty southeasterly winds. This system will then move toward
the central and northern Gulf for Saturday with a new triple-
point surface low developing, bringing widespread snowfall across
Southcentral late Saturday through Sunday. As the low tracks
toward Prince William Sound, a brief period of southeasterly gap
winds will develop from Passage Canal through Turnagain Arm. Right
now snow amounts look light across Cook Inlet and The Mat-Su
Valleys through Sunday, with a general 3 to 6 inches expected and
some areas of blowing snow in gap locations and along the
immediate Cook Inlet coast.

There is still some uncertainty regarding timing and position of
the developing low late Saturday into Sunday. Any shift in the
track will affect winds and snow amounts, especially along Cook
Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Generally clear conditions and weak offshore flow are expected
across Southwest Alaska through early Saturday. The next impactful
weather event for Southwest will be an approaching front
associated with a deep Bering low. This front will arrive to the
coast by Saturday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds and snow are
expected along Bristol Bay coastal locations for Saturday. This
combination of wind and snow may cause reduced visibility at
times. By Saturday afternoon, precipitation types become a little
less certain along the Alaska Peninsula, however current thinking
is that temperatures will warm enough to change snow over to a
rain/snow mix, and likely all rain by Saturday evening, especially
over the southern Alaska Peninsula. By Sunday, conditions are
still expected to remain unsettled as colder northerly flow
returns, allowing any lingering precipitation to change back over
to snow, especially over the Kuskokwim Delta coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern across the Bering is expected for the
end of the week. By Friday morning, a leading front associated
with a deepening, storm force low approaches the western
Aleutians. Gusty southeasterly winds and a rain/snow mix is
expected initially as this front moves in across the Aleutian
Chain Friday morning. As warmer southerly flow works its way in, a
change to all rain is expected during the first half of the day
Friday. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Shemya and
Amchitka from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, where
precipitation is expected to remain all snow at this time.

By Friday evening, southwesterly storm force winds will move in
over the Rat Islands as the low center gradually lifts northward
into the western Bering. While the low looks to remain nearly
stationary for Saturday, northerly flow on the backside of the low
will allow colder air to wrap around. This will keep gusty
northerly winds in place for the western Aleutians through most of
the weekend.

Meanwhile for the rest of the Bering, the leading edge of the
front progresses eastward. By Friday evening, southerly gale force
winds will reach the Pribilofs and central Aleutians, and by
Saturday morning, this now weakening front will reach the eastern
Bering. As this front moves eastward, precipitation is expected to
spread across the Chain with snow possible at the onset, however
a quick transition to rain/snow mix and then all rain is likely.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sun through Tue)...
Gale force winds will continue around the low in the western
Bering on Sunday then diminish to small craft range Sunday night.
Gales are expected from south of the Alaska Peninsula through the
Gulf Sunday and Sunday night associated with a low in the northern
Gulf. Winds are expected to be near storm force in the offshore
waters of the Gulf Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Mon through Thu)...
An upper level trough will dig into southern Alaska Monday and
Tuesday then slide east Wednesday and Thursday, with the axis near
the Canadian border Thursday afternoon. High pressure over
extreme northeast Russia on Monday will slide eastward behind this
trough, pushing into the western Bering on Tuesday and into
western Alaska by Thursday. The Ensemble means are in fairly good
agreement, but the deterministic models are all over the place on
the details. Therefore the forecast confidence past Tuesday is
rather low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch 191.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 176 178 179
185 412 414.
Storm Warning 175 177 411 413.
Heavy Freezing Spray 129 130 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL