Gale Warning 214, NWS Anchorage, AK

289 
FZAK52 PAFC 282344
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-291230-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 982 mb low 140 nm west of Adak moves 230 nm northwest of Adak and
phases with a stronger 970 mb low located 120 nm south of Adak Fri
night. This low deepens to 960 mb and moves 200 nm southwest of
Saint Paul Island Sat afternoon. The low then moves 75 nm east of
Saint Paul Island at 965 mb Sat night and then moves inland over 
Southwest Alaska Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-291230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-291230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. From 
the Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt after 
midnight. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft building to 35 ft after
midnight. From the Shumagin Islands E, seas 20 ft building to 27
ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-291230-
Bristol Bay-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt.
.MON...W wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-291230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and 
rain.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. From Port
Moller E, E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt except SW 45 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 14 ft building to 34 ft after midnight. From Port Moller E, 
seas 10 ft building to 18 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 60 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-291230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming S 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft 
building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 60 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 60 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-291230-
Unalaska Bay-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt around noon. Seas 3 ft 
building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-291230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 11 ft. 
Rain.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft
building to 28 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ173-291230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 8 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft
building to 27 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-291230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft 
building to 34 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 37 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ175-291230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain showers.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ176-291230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft building to 32 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-291230-
Adak to Kiska-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 11 
ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Bering side,
seas 10 ft. Pacific side, seas 11 ft building to 17 ft in the 
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-291230-
Kiska to Attu-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft Bering side...13 ft Pacific side.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-291230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt by late evening. Seas 6
ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 11 ft
building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-291230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Snow.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-291230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 35 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Snow.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.MON...N wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-291230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
244 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 30 kt increasing to 40
kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 40 kt. Seas 
in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 PM AKST Thu Feb 27 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper trough and associated surface low moving eastward over
the Gulf are still kicking off a few snow showers along the
eastern Gulf Coast. Generally fair skies were observed elsewhere
across Southcentral and across much of the southern Mainland.
Gusty outflow winds associated with the retreating low over the
Gulf were observed over the eastern Kenai Peninsula. A broad upper
through and weakening surface lows extended from west of Attu to
over the eastern Aleutians. Satellite imagery shows the early
stages of development of a surface low along a broad frontal
boundary over the western north Pacific.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The most notable model difference occur Friday and Saturday with
the next low brewing over the western Pacific. This system
develops under a fairly strong upper jet and heads into the Bering
Sea later Friday. Center positioning of low is still in question,
but confidence at this point is moderate to high on gale to storm
force wind potential across the Aleutians and Bering Friday into
Saturday. Accumulating snow potential still looks reasonable for
Saturday and Saturday night from Bristol Bay to portions of
Southcentral.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Generally VFR conditions are expected through this evening.
There is a possibility of IFR/LIFR ceiling and/or visibilities in
fog Friday morning. Light winds should prevail over the next 24
hrs.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Clear and dry conditions will prevail across much of Southcentral
through the first half of Saturday as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the western half of the state. For the Copper River
Basin and Delta, scattered cloud cover and the threat for an
isolated to scattered snow shower will remain in the forecast
through early tomorrow morning as a weak shortwave dives across
the eastern half of Southcentral overnight. With the ridge
situated over the interior and a surface low lingering in the
eastern Gulf, gusty northerly outflow winds will persist along the
immediate coast. With mainly clear and dry conditions for most of
the region, temperatures overnight tonight and tomorrow night
will drop to near zero around Cook Inlet to well below zero across
the Susitna Valley, interior Kenai Peninsula, and Copper River
Basin. High temperatures the next two days will range from the
single digits in the Copper River Basin, to lower to mid 20s from
Cook Inlet north to the Susitna Valley, to lower to mid 30s for
Kodiak City.

A frontal system is slated to enter the western Gulf late Friday
night, first impacting Kodiak Island with a mix of rain and snow
and gusty southeasterly winds. This system will then move toward
the central and northern Gulf for Saturday with a new triple-
point surface low developing, bringing widespread snowfall across
Southcentral late Saturday through Sunday. As the low tracks
toward Prince William Sound, a brief period of southeasterly gap
winds will develop from Passage Canal through Turnagain Arm. Right
now snow amounts look light across Cook Inlet and The Mat-Su
Valleys through Sunday, with a general 3 to 6 inches expected and
some areas of blowing snow in gap locations and along the
immediate Cook Inlet coast.

There is still some uncertainty regarding timing and position of
the developing low late Saturday into Sunday. Any shift in the
track will affect winds and snow amounts, especially along Cook
Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Generally clear conditions and weak offshore flow are expected
across Southwest Alaska through early Saturday. The next impactful
weather event for Southwest will be an approaching front
associated with a deep Bering low. This front will arrive to the
coast by Saturday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds and snow are
expected along Bristol Bay coastal locations for Saturday. This
combination of wind and snow may cause reduced visibility at
times. By Saturday afternoon, precipitation types become a little
less certain along the Alaska Peninsula, however current thinking
is that temperatures will warm enough to change snow over to a
rain/snow mix, and likely all rain by Saturday evening, especially
over the southern Alaska Peninsula. By Sunday, conditions are
still expected to remain unsettled as colder northerly flow
returns, allowing any lingering precipitation to change back over
to snow, especially over the Kuskokwim Delta coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

An active weather pattern across the Bering is expected for the
end of the week. By Friday morning, a leading front associated
with a deepening, storm force low approaches the western
Aleutians. Gusty southeasterly winds and a rain/snow mix is
expected initially as this front moves in across the Aleutian
Chain Friday morning. As warmer southerly flow works its way in, a
change to all rain is expected during the first half of the day
Friday. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Shemya and
Amchitka from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, where
precipitation is expected to remain all snow at this time.

By Friday evening, southwesterly storm force winds will move in
over the Rat Islands as the low center gradually lifts northward
into the western Bering. While the low looks to remain nearly
stationary for Saturday, northerly flow on the backside of the low
will allow colder air to wrap around. This will keep gusty
northerly winds in place for the western Aleutians through most of
the weekend.

Meanwhile for the rest of the Bering, the leading edge of the
front progresses eastward. By Friday evening, southerly gale force
winds will reach the Pribilofs and central Aleutians, and by
Saturday morning, this now weakening front will reach the eastern
Bering. As this front moves eastward, precipitation is expected to
spread across the Chain with snow possible at the onset, however
a quick transition to rain/snow mix and then all rain is likely.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sun through Tue)...
Gale force winds will continue around the low in the western
Bering on Sunday then diminish to small craft range Sunday night.
Gales are expected from south of the Alaska Peninsula through the
Gulf Sunday and Sunday night associated with a low in the northern
Gulf. Winds are expected to be near storm force in the offshore
waters of the Gulf Sunday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Mon through Thu)...
An upper level trough will dig into southern Alaska Monday and
Tuesday then slide east Wednesday and Thursday, with the axis near
the Canadian border Thursday afternoon. High pressure over
extreme northeast Russia on Monday will slide eastward behind this
trough, pushing into the western Bering on Tuesday and into
western Alaska by Thursday. The Ensemble means are in fairly good
agreement, but the deterministic models are all over the place on
the details. Therefore the forecast confidence past Tuesday is
rather low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch 191.
MARINE...Gale Warning 127 155 165 170 171 172 173 174 176 178 179
185 412 414.
Storm Warning 175 177 411 413.
Heavy Freezing Spray 129 130 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL