Gale Warning 212, NWS Anchorage, AK

025 
FZAK51 PAFC 281234
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-290200-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 mb low at 45 nm W of Yakutat Fri morning moves ashore near
Yakutat Fri evening. A front enters the southwestern Gulf Sat 
afternoon, then moves northeast, reaching the Gulf Coast Sun 
morning. 

$$

PKZ119-290200-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ120-290200-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-290200-
Resurrection Bay-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-290200-
Prince William Sound-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-290200-
Port Valdez-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-290200-
Valdez Narrows-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-290200-
Valdez Arm-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-290200-
Passage Canal-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-290200-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray near
Kamishak Bay.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Heavy freezing spray near Kamishak Bay.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ131-290200-
Barren Islands East-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-290200-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ136-290200-
Chiniak Bay-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Snow with rain.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ137-290200-
Marmot Bay-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Snow with rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-290200-
Shelikof Strait-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-290200-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 5 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-290200-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon.  Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt.
.MON...N wind 10 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-290200-
Kachemak Bay-
334 AM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

866 
FZAK51 PAFC 290049
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-291400-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

Weak low pressure remains in the northern Gulf through Sat 
morning. A strong front enters the western Gulf Sat morning and 
reaches the central Gulf Sat afternoon. The strong front spreads
across the Gulf and reaches the eastern Gulf Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-291400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Higher winds and seas near the
Copper River Delta. 
.SAT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 
6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ120-291400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ121-291400-
Resurrection Bay-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 
ft. Snow.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-291400-
Prince William Sound-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
4 ft building to 7 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-291400-
Port Valdez-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-291400-
Valdez Narrows-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-291400-
Valdez Arm-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-291400-
Passage Canal-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt near Whitter in the
morning. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-291400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-291400-
Barren Islands East-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
6 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 13 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-291400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 
12 ft building to 17 ft after midnight.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ136-291400-
Chiniak Bay-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
7 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-291400-
Marmot Bay-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Snow and
rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
7 ft. Rain.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-291400-
Shelikof Strait-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft 
building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-291400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-291400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Areas of blowing snow.
Snow.
.SUN...S wind 10 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt.
.MON...NW wind 10 kt.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ141-291400-
Kachemak Bay-
349 PM AKST Fri Feb 28 2020

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 AM AKST Thu Feb 27 2020

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An area of high pressure at the surface and aloft continues to
remain centered over eastern Siberia, while extending into western
Alaska. To it's south, a pair of lows in the Gulf continue to
bring precipitation to portions of the Gulf Coast, mainly from
Prince William Sound to Yakutat.

Further west, a pair of lows was influencing the weather. The
first system was riding the Aleutians in an eastward trek, with
the low currently near Nikolski. Another low just north of Shemya.
Both of these systems were bringing some isolated showery type
precipitation to the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The models remain in good agreement through the weekend in the
overall synoptic pattern, with the biggest difference being
related to a north Pacific low that moves into the western Bering
Sea saturday morning. Here, the GFS continues to be the strongest
solution (like it has been most of the winter), as it portrays a
964 mb low. Conversely, the ECMWF (European) model is almost 10 mb
weaker, with the Canadian in between in strength but shows two
different low centers in that vicinity. The net difference here is
how much coverage of storm force sustained winds there will be.

They (the numerical models) do show good agreement that a
disturbance aloft will pinch off from this system and eject
eastward, with cyclogenesis (the development of a low pressure
system) commencing in the Gulf by Sunday morning, but once again
they disagree on the strength of the system by 10 mb. This
scenario then repeats itself by early next week. So in short, an
active pattern looks to return to southcentral and southwestern
Alaska, westward through the Aleutians and portions of the Bering
Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure building in from the northwest is clearing out skies
over Southcentral Alaska. A weak low near Middleton Island is
still pushing a few clouds along the north Gulf coast with a line
of showers toward Cordova early this morning. This area of
showers and clouds should diminish today as the low pushes to the
Southeast and away from the area. This should leave mostly clear
and cold conditions across most of Southcentral through Friday
night.

Friday night is when the next system makes its way to Kodiak
Island from the Southwest and then into the remainder of
Southcentral Saturday. This is the system that is expected to
bring widespread snowfall to Southcentral, with the exception of
Kodiak which will warm up rapidly to turn precipitation type to
rain. The development of a triple point low near the Barren
Islands on Saturday will keep the warmer air from pushing farther
northward keeping precipitation all snow for the rest of
Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

In the past 24 hrs, the temperatures at Bethel and Aniak have
plummeted by more than 10 degrees. The models continue to show
northerly flow in the boundary layer thereby ushering arctic air
into the region. The models look bone dry for Southwest for today
and Friday. A new storm is churning up in the north Pacific and
the leading edge of the precipitation shield will be in Bristol
Bay and Toksook Bay Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

There is an elongated surface low from Unalaska to the Western
Bering that will continue to weaken and become absorbed into the
longwave pattern on Friday. A developing low will come charging
out of the north Pacific toward the Western Aleutians. The models
continue to show slightly different tracks and intensities with
the surface low but there is high confidence that the Western and
Central Aleutians will see high end gale force winds and rough
seas. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Friday afternoon
through Saturday afternoon for Shemya and Amchitka. This storm is
projected to impact the entire chain.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 Sat through Mon)...

A strong low in the Bering on Saturday will bring widespread gale
force winds across the Bering, Aleutians, and westward to near
Kodiak Island. Storm force winds are expected closer to the low
center, over the western Bering and central/western Aleutians. By
Sunday this system will weaken, with gales confined to the
central/western Aleutians and the western Bering. For the Gulf, on
Sunday and Monday westerly winds will be near gale force.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 Sun through Wed)...

On Sunday there will be a low in the Bering, with a trough
extending northeast into northern Alaska. Southwesterly flow aloft
will be over all of southern Alaska, extending westward through
the eastern and central Aleutians. Through Monday the models are
in fairly good agreement that the Bering low will weaken and
slowly drift south, while the northern Alaska trough drops
southward into southern Alaska. By Tuesday the deterministic
models diverge significantly on where the Bering low goes, and
also on how the upper level pattern develops over Alaska in
general. Therefore for Tuesday and Wednesday ensemble mean
forecasts are preferred, and forecast confidence is somewhat low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch 191
MARINE...Gale Warning 173 174 175 176 177 178 411 413
         Heavy Freezing Spray warning 129 130 185 414

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...BL