Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1045 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Band of convection extending through NE OK remains elevated
however sufficient instability remains present to support brief
intervals of severe potential. These storms will continue to
fester and likely spread E-NE while deeper boundary moisture
spreads northward. The residual boundary from the ongoing
convection will likely serve as the effective frontal zone and be
a focus of concern with expected afternoon / evening storms.
Forecast wind profiles appear to be realized in observational
satellite winds and area VWP profiles which raises confidence in a
broad region of favorable wind fields supportive of significant
severe weather from this afternoon through the evening hours. This
event will be rather long lived locally as a continued severe
threat will exist with developing linear MCS later tonight which
advances eastward across the area through early afternoon
Tuesday.
Flooding risks will continue to steadily raise and areas
northeast of Interstate 44 appear most susceptible to the highest
totals. River flood warnings have increased in number and further
rises are likely once the rainfall footprint is realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  70  81  63 /  80  80  80  10
FSM   80  68  79  61 /  30  50  80  20
MLC   78  69  80  64 /  60  50  80  10
BVO   73  67  79  59 /  80 100  80  10
FYV   76  66  78  59 /  50  60  80  20
BYV   75  66  77  61 /  30  60  80  40
MKO   76  67  80  60 /  60  60  80  10
MIO   73  68  78  61 /  70  90  70  10
F10   76  67  80  62 /  60  60  80  10
HHW   81  70  81  65 /  50  30  70  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OKZ054>074.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
443 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-210945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
443 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH THE THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Morning into early Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Morning into early Afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Morning into early Afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Morning into early Afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
A high impact severe weather and flood event is set to unfold across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today into Tuesday. Thunderstorms
are expected to blossom across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late
this Morning into this Afternoon as a potent storm system begins to pivot
out of the Southwest and into the Plains. As a warm front moves north across the
area this Morning into this Afternoon, the airmass across the region
will become increasingly unstable. This will allow any thunderstorms that
develop to become supercellular with a few strong tornadoes possible.
Large hail and wind gusts to around 80 mph will be possible as well.
This activity will taper off later Tonight.

In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be likely with an increased potential
for flash flooding across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
2 to 4 inches of rain will be common across the area with amounts as high
as 8 inches possible in some locations. This will likely lead to flash flooding
of creeks, streams and low lying areas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall threat continues into Tuesday as
thunderstorm complex that will develop west of the area Tonight moves across
eastern oklahoma and western Arkansas. This complex will have the potential to
produce damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes. These storm are expected
to exit the area late Tuesday Afternoon or early Tuesday Evening.

Showers and thunderstorms may clip western portions of the area Wednesday night
and again on Friday as series of upper level disturbances slide to the west of
the area.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency management personnel and first responders should continue
to closely monitor the latest forecasts both Today and Tuesday.
Significant severe weather is expected Today with the potential
for high end impacts, including flash flooding.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1028 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ059-060-064-201600-
Tulsa OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
1028 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN
PAWNEE AND WEST CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CDT...

At 1028 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Shamrock, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sand Springs...                   Mannford...
Drumright...                      Shamrock...
Keystone State Park...            Silver City...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 185 and 192, and
between mile markers 194 and 209, and near mile marker 214.

LAT...LON 3627 9643 3617 9627 3616 9627 3616 9625
      3605 9606 3579 9648 3590 9662 3599 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 219DEG 28KT 3592 9651

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1127 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ055-056-060-061-201700-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
1127 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN NOWATA AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA
COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

At 1127 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Vera, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         Skiatook...
Collinsville...                   Oologah...
Ramona...                         Talala...
Vera...                           New Alluwe...
Watova...

LAT...LON 3668 9543 3660 9543 3659 9542 3627 9574
      3639 9600 3682 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 203DEG 36KT 3646 9581