Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Tulsa, OK

316 
WWUS54 KTSA 201839
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
139 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKC041-115-201849-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-190520T1845Z/
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
139 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND
EASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3656 9462 3658 9482 3692 9490 3699 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 257DEG 41KT 3679 9458 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing widespread convection is likely to continue across NE OK
with an increase in coverage through the afternoon into evening
hours. Lesser coverage expected in western AR. A lull in overall
storm coverage is likely by early morning before extensive line of
storms spreads eastward Tuesday morning. Overall expect largely
prevailing low VFR to MVFR ceilings with storm impacts
periodically lowering categories at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1045 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Band of convection extending through NE OK remains elevated
however sufficient instability remains present to support brief
intervals of severe potential. These storms will continue to
fester and likely spread E-NE while deeper boundary moisture
spreads northward. The residual boundary from the ongoing
convection will likely serve as the effective frontal zone and be
a focus of concern with expected afternoon / evening storms.
Forecast wind profiles appear to be realized in observational
satellite winds and area VWP profiles which raises confidence in a
broad region of favorable wind fields supportive of significant
severe weather from this afternoon through the evening hours. This
event will be rather long lived locally as a continued severe
threat will exist with developing linear MCS later tonight which
advances eastward across the area through early afternoon
Tuesday.
Flooding risks will continue to steadily raise and areas
northeast of Interstate 44 appear most susceptible to the highest
totals. River flood warnings have increased in number and further
rises are likely once the rainfall footprint is realized.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  68  81  64 /  90  80  80  10
FSM   80  68  79  63 /  30  40  90  20
MLC   78  72  83  66 /  60  40  80  10
BVO   73  67  82  58 /  80  90  80  10
FYV   77  68  72  59 /  50  60  90  20
BYV   75  66  75  62 /  30  70  90  30
MKO   76  68  79  62 /  70  50  80  10
MIO   73  68  77  61 /  70  80  90  10
F10   76  69  82  64 /  60  60  80  10
HHW   81  69  79  66 /  50  30  80  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OKZ054>074.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

AVIATION.....07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
120 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
120 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...Significant Severe Weather Likely Including Strong Tornadoes...
...Life Threatening Flooding Possible This Evening and Overnight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 2 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...All Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...After 3 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 PM.

DISCUSSION...
Severe weather will develop this afternoon and continue into
the overnight hours.  Conditions remain favorable
for significant severe weather including the potential for violent
tornadoes and damaging winds.  Numerous supercell storms are
expected to develop this afternoon and become tornadic.  These
storms may also interact with a stationary boundary in vicinity
of the Interstate 44 corridor, which will further enhance the
tornadic potential.  The risk of supercells will continue
into the evening hours and possibly spread eastward through
western Arkansas.  A brief lull in severe weather is possible
toward the early morning hours on Tuesday, however a line of
storms is expected to re-intensify while spreading eastward.
This line of storms is likely to move into eastern Oklahoma
after 3 AM with potential for leading edge tornadoes and
locally damaging winds.

Significant flooding is likely to develop this afternoon
through tonight, especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma.
Flash flooding will develop quickly due to the saturated
soils, and there remains potential for life threatening flooding
across portions of northeast Oklahoma where recent excessive
rains have fallen.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning as
the line of storms advances eastward.  The risk for tornadoes
and locally damaging winds will continue.  Any additional
heavy rainfall will further worsen any ongoing flooding.
Flooded roadways are likely to remain an issue for several
days as waters will be slow to recede.
Thunderstorm chances continue through the week, however
an organized severe weather threat is not apparent at this
time.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Weather warnings highlighting significant severe potential
are likely this afternoon and evening.  The severe
weather risk will remain present through Tuesday morning.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1127 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ055-056-060-061-201700-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
1127 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN NOWATA AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA
COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

At 1127 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Vera, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         Skiatook...
Collinsville...                   Oologah...
Ramona...                         Talala...
Vera...                           New Alluwe...
Watova...

LAT...LON 3668 9543 3660 9543 3659 9542 3627 9574
      3639 9600 3682 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 1627Z 203DEG 36KT 3646 9581

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW ADAIR             36.46N 95.34W
05/20/2019  E60 MPH          MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JBM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1259 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ054-059-201830-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1259 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND CENTRAL
PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1258 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of
Blackburn, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Barnsdall...
Wynona...                         Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Pershing...
Nelagoney...                      Tallant...

LAT...LON 3621 9656 3632 9673 3681 9631 3664 9605
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 219DEG 50KT 3633 9659

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     HAIL             VINITA                  36.64N 95.15W
05/20/2019  E0.88 INCH       CRAIG              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JBM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
120 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ054-201845-
Osage OK-
120 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

At 120 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Grainola, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grainola...                       Foraker...

LAT...LON 3700 9632 3682 9654 3694 9671 3700 9666
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 219DEG 49KT 3694 9657

Lacy

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
124 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1254 PM     HAIL             VINITA                  36.64N 95.15W
05/20/2019  E1.00 INCH       CRAIG              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JBM