Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 20, 2019Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 20, 2019, 6:42 PM CDT for Osage County, Pawnee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 18 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 20, 2019, 6:42 PM CDT (23:42 UTC)
Expired: May 20, 2019, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 18 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 20, 1:37 PM CDT	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 79 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -389 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1022 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 302 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

757 
WUUS54 KTSA 202342
SVRTSA
OKC113-117-210000-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0101.190520T2342Z-190521T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
642 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Osage County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Southeastern Pawnee County in northeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 642 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 9 miles southwest of Pawhuska to 5 miles east of
  Glencoe, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations in or near the path include...
  Sand Springs...                   Skiatook...
  Hominy...                         Cleveland...
  Wynona...                         Jennings...
  Westport...                       Osage...
  Hallett...                        Blackburn...
  Terlton...                        Maramec...
  Skedee...                         Walnut Creek State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3659 9662 3660 9629 3641 9624 3642 9600
      3640 9600 3617 9615 3616 9629 3616 9682
      3624 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 273DEG 19KT 3660 9648 3621 9683 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 20, 2:31 PM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 20, 2:31 PM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
231 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...A few strong tornadoes possible this afternoon/evening...
...Significant flash flooding likely across NE OK into tonight...

.DISCUSSION...
Warm front currently located near a Drumright, Bixby, Inola line.
Elevated strong convection continues north of the front with
mainly a large hail/heavy rainfall threat. Atmosphere is very
unstable along and south of boundary and a few isolated supercells
are still expected to develop near warm front and/or south in the
warm sector. All modes of severe weather are possible, including
a few strong tornadoes. In addition, very heavy rainfall expected
in the stronger storms overnight with a significant flooding
threat, especially north of I-44 and west of highway 75. Numerous
rivers are forecast to go into flood based on the forecast
rainfall amounts expected through Tuesday across the northern
basins.

Thunderstorms over western/central Oklahoma should become more
linear with time overnight, moving into eastern Oklahoma late
tonight. Very strong low level wind fields are expected and QLCS
tornadoes and damaging downburst winds will remain possible. The
severe threat will likely persist as convective line pushes east
into far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day
Tuesday with additional surface heating. The main thunderstorm
line is forecast to move east of northwest Arkansas by mid
afternoon with the severe threat ending.

Strong upper high will build over the southeast CONUS mid to late
week. Short waves embedded in stronger southwest flow aloft will
continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the
best chance remaining over northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  81  64  89 /  80  80  10  20
FSM   68  79  63  91 /  40  90  20  20
MLC   72  83  66  87 /  40  80  10  20
BVO   67  82  58  84 /  90  80  10  20
FYV   68  72  59  85 /  60  90  20  20
BYV   66  75  62  87 /  70  90  20  20
MKO   68  79  62  89 /  50  80  10  20
MIO   68  77  61  86 /  80  90  10  10
F10   69  82  64  86 /  60  80  10  20
HHW   69  79  66  87 /  30  80  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for OKZ054>074.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

LONG TERM....12

Hazardous weather outlook, May 20, 4:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
458 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
458 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...Significant Severe Weather Likely Including Strong Tornadoes...
...Life Threatening Flooding Possible This Evening and Overnight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...West of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...North of I-40 .

DISCUSSION...
Conditions remain favorable for significant severe weather
including the potential for strong or violent tornadoes and
damaging winds. Supercell storms have developed across western and
central Oklahoma this afternoon, and these storms will build into
eastern Oklahoma early this evening. These storms may interact
with a stationary boundary from near Miami to Pawnee in northeast
Oklahoma, which will enhance the tornadic potential. The risk of
supercells will continue into the evening hours and possibly
spread eastward through western Arkansas. A brief lull in severe
weather is possible toward the early morning hours on Tuesday,
however a line of storms is expected to re-intensify while
spreading eastward. This line of storms is likely to move into
eastern Oklahoma after 3 AM with potential for leading edge
tornadoes and locally damaging winds.

Significant flooding is likely to develop through tonight,
especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma. Flash flooding
will develop quickly due to the saturated soils, and there remains
potential for life threatening flooding across portions of
northeast Oklahoma where recent excessive rains have fallen.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is likely to be ongoing Tuesday morning as the
line of storms advances eastward. The risk for tornadoes and
locally damaging winds will continue. Any additional heavy
rainfall will further worsen any ongoing flooding. Flooded
roadways are likely to remain an issue for several days as waters
will be slow to recede. Thunderstorm chances continue through the
week, however an organized severe weather threat is not apparent
at this time.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Weather warnings highlighting significant severe potential
are likely this evening. The severe weather risk will remain
present through Tuesday morning.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 20, 2:26 PM CDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
226 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W GROVE               36.59N 94.82W
05/20/2019                   DELAWARE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE ON MONKEY ISLAND. BOAT DOCKS DESTROYED AND BOATS
            LIFTED FROM WATER.

&&

SJC

Special weather statement, May 20, 2:58 PM CDT, 3 hours 44 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
258 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

OKZ057-058-061>063-202030-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Mayes OK-
258 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...EAST CENTRAL
ROGERS...NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA AND NORTHWESTERN
MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Pryor, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Pryor...
Pryor Creek...                    Afton...
Adair...                          Bernice...
Ketchum...                        Bluejacket...
Big Cabin...                      Pensacola...
Cleora...                         White Oak...
Bernice State Park...             Strang...
Pyramid Corners...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 254 and 296.

LAT...LON 3666 9486 3622 9536 3634 9553 3683 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 218DEG 50KT 3635 9539

Lacy

Special weather statement, May 20, 3:28 PM CDT, 3 hours 14 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-072-202100-
Washington AR-Crawford AR-Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
328 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHERN ADAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Brushy, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Sallisaw...                       Stilwell...
Westville...                      Marble City...
Brushy...                         Adair State Park...
Strickler...                      Maryetta...
Blackburn...                      Brushy Lake State Park...
Bunch...                          Baron...
Clyde...                          Canehill...
Odell...                          Morrow...

LAT...LON 3583 9419 3544 9470 3553 9491 3564 9483
      3564 9481 3568 9481 3600 9458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 217DEG 49KT 3556 9473

Lacy

Special weather statement, May 20, 4:01 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
401 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ001-010-OKZ069-202130-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-
401 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BENTON...WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Stilwell, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Stilwell...
Farmington...                     Prairie Grove...
Lincoln...                        Greenland...
Adair State Park...               Drake Field Airport...
Prairie Grove Battlefield State...
Walnut Grove...
Savoy...                          Clyde...
Wedington...                      Rhea...
Canehill...                       Hogeye...
Summers...                        Morrow...
Wheeler...                        Viney Grove...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 56 and 64.

LAT...LON 3577 9445 3576 9446 3576 9449 3573 9449
      3567 9457 3574 9473 3620 9437 3604 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 213DEG 31KT 3576 9461

Lacy

Special weather statement, May 20, 5:48 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ001-010-202345-
Benton AR-Washington AR-
548 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BENTON AND NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 548 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Prairie Grove, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Bella Vista...                    Lowell...
Farmington...                     Pea Ridge...
Prairie Grove...                  Tontitown...
Bethel Heights...                 Lincoln...
Cave Springs...                   Highfill...
Garfield...                       Gateway...
Northwest Arkansas Regional Air...
Miller...
Centerton...                      Johnson...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 62 and 93.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northwestern
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3589 9433 3598 9452 3650 9424 3650 9387
      3647 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 208DEG 33KT 3601 9438

69

Special weather statement, May 20, 5:51 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
551 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

ARZ010-011-019-020-202345-
Madison AR-Washington AR-Franklin AR-Crawford AR-
551 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 551 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of
Fern, moving north at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ozark...                          Huntsville...
St. Paul...                       Wesley...
Cass...                           Saint Paul...
Aurora...                         Japton...
Fern...                           Goshen...
Georgetown...                     Jethro...
Bidville...                       Crosses...
Combs...                          Turners Bend...
Lonelm...                         Tuttle...
Barnes...                         Mayfield...

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 29 and
34.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northwestern
and west central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3551 9385 3555 9406 3616 9397 3610 9364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 191DEG 27KT 3561 9394

69

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 20, 8:41 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Okmulgee	15 days
May 20, 9:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	48 hr
May 20, 9:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage, Tulsa	7 days
May 20, 9:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Tulsa	7 days
May 20, 9:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Washington	10 days
May 20, 9:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Washington	12 days
May 20, 9:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	13 days
May 20, 10:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	12 days
May 20, 10:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Creek	58 hr
May 20, 10:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee	48 hr
May 20, 10:24 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware	43 hr
May 20, 10:24 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware	43 hr
May 20, 10:24 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Sequoyah	22 hr
May 20, 10:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek	32 min
May 20, 10:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington	52 min
May 20, 11:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	33 min
May 20, 12:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Rogers	32 min
May 20, 12:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Ottawa, Rogers	47 min
May 20, 12:59 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	31 min
May 20, 1:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	25 min
May 20, 1:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware, Ottawa	19 min
May 20, 1:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	24 min
May 20, 2:05 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Washington	3 hr
May 20, 2:09 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Nowata	12 days
May 20, 2:20 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	7 days
May 20, 2:54 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Pawnee	8 days
May 20, 2:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	32 min
May 20, 3:18 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Washington	3 hr
May 20, 3:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair, Sequoyah	32 min
May 20, 4:46 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	8 hr
May 20, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	40 min
May 20, 5:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	42 min
May 20, 5:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	39 min
May 20, 5:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	36 min
May 20, 6:11 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Osage, Pawnee	27 min
May 20, 6:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Washington	46 min
May 20, 6:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Washington	26 min
May 20, 6:51 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata, Ottawa, Rogers and 1 more	8 hr
May 20, 6:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Osage, Pawnee, Rogers, Tulsa and 1 more	48 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2019 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.