Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
650 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Convection is lining up to favor the southern portions of the area
to receive heavy rainfall into this afternoon. Updated forecast
has 2-3+" in the southern two tiers of counties along the MO/AR
border, with potential for 4-5". Therefore, extended the southern
end of the Flash Flood Watch farther east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

There's a lot going on in the region right now. Ongoing persistent
convection over portions of the forecast area are expected to
continue into the morning hours before scattering out and shifting
east. Convective cluster over south-central KS is shown by
convective models moving into the west late this morning and
exiting the east by late afternoon. Primary risk with these
rounds of convection is flooding given limited instability due to
the atmosphere being worked over continuously. Have expanded the
Flash Flood Watch slightly to the east to account for expected
rainfall and flooding concerns. Could still see a severe threat
with the cluster coming from KS, especially if instability can
push in from the SW as shown by some of the models.

Models then are divided on late day/overnight convection.
Convective models show very little instability to work with, and
therefore show little in the way of convection. Synoptic models
are more enthusiastic in showing widespread convection developing
with ample instability for severe storms. Dynamics will be strong
(height falls from the upper trough moving in, right entrance
region of the jet, and surface cold front and trough), so if
instability can build behind earlier convection then the severe
risk would be solid. If this very conditional threat is realized,
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado would
be possible. Additional rainfall would continue a flood threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

A more typical summertime pattern will become established this
week, resulting in hot and humid conditions with some low end
chances for showers and storms at times, but nothing widespread.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Several round of showers and thunderstorms are expected, making
for a challenging forecast. Worst rainfall and low
cloud/visibility conditions will exist into early this afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>070-
     077>082-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

UPDATE...Titus
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
359 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
359 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue over portions of the area
this morning. The primary risk with these storms is flash
flooding.

Another round of thunderstorms will move in from the west late
this morning into the afternoon hours. Large hail to the size of
quarters, damaging winds to 60 mph, and flash flooding are
possible with this round of storms.

Yet another round of storms is possible this evening into tonight.
There is a conditional risk of severe storms with this round if
enough instability can develop. If instability does develop, half
dollar size hail, 60 mph damaging winds, flash flooding, and
perhaps an isolated tornado would be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible at times this
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus