Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
655 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

An outflow boundary has settled over the northeast portion of the
forecast area from Lebanon to West Plains. Thunderstorms developed
earlier today along the north side of the boundary, but much of
that activity has subsided as the main storm complex that produced
the outflow boundary has pushed southeastward toward Tennessee.

To our west, storm coverage is increasing over eastern OK as an
upper level disturbance moves northeast toward the Ozarks and
interacts with the very unstable airmass over the region. Another
area of storm activity has developed over central Kansas near a
surface front. These storms are expected to affect areas northwest
of our forecast area.

Several rounds of storms are expected to move across the region
through late tomorrow night. While forecast model output still
shows some variation on where the heaviest rainfall will occur,
our north and west counties will likely receive at least a few
inches of rain where grounds remain saturated due to earlier
rainfall. So have issued a flash flood watch for late tonight
through late Sunday night.

During the afternoon on Sunday, upper level winds increase and a
negatively tilted upper trough moves across the region and
interacts with the unstable airmass. So still expect strong to
severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

The upper trough will shift east of the area on Monday with an
upper level ridge building over the southern Plains by midweek,
and expanding over much of the central U.S. by next weekend. A
few weak shortwaves riding around the periphery of the ridge may
spark a few afternoon storms, but overall drier conditions are
expected. Temperatures will be closer to normal after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered storms will be possible for much of
the period as disturbances move through the area, becoming more
numerous after 06z. Outside of storms we will generally see vfr
conditions. With showers becoming more numerous later, we should
see mvfr visibility ceilings more often with brief periods of
ifr with more intense/heavier showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through late Sunday night
     for MOZ055>058-066>069-077-078-088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through late Sunday night
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1011 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-240315-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1011 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are expected to shift southeast into southeast
Kansas and western Missouri by midnight then shift slowly east
into central and parts of southwest Missouri overnight. Damaging
winds and half dollar sized hail will be possible with the
strongest storms. slow moving thunderstorms will also produce
heavy rainfall and flooding.

Other scattered storms will also affect southern Missouri
overnight with an isolated stronger storm possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will again return to the area from Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. Very large hail, damaging winds, flash
flooding and perhaps a tornado are possible over far southwest
Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas. Large hail and damaging
winds are possible for the rest of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA