Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, will move east through
the area this evening. A frontal boundary will linger across the
region Tuesday through Thursday with periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally be near normal
through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Temperatures this afternoon expected to warm up into the upper 70s
to near 80. Cloud cover this afternoon will increase ahead of strong
system to our west. Lingering low clouds/fog from Lake Michigan
stretching southeast through SBN and FWA finally eroding away. This
feature may play a role with stronger storms this evening as it acts
as a differential heating boundary.

Strong low pressure system spinning over IA/MN this afternoon will
be the focus in the short term for severe weather across our area.
Leading warm front will lift northward this afternoon with a few
showers and thunderstorms along it possible. Severe risk with these
storms will be limited but cannot rule out gusty winds and small
hail.

Severe risk increases late this afternoon into the evening as warm
front lifts farther north. All severe hazards in play for tonight
including damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornado, and heavy
rain. Behind the front, SFC based instability increasing to 2000
j/kg and deep layer shear ranging from 50-60 knots. Long and curved
hodographs with backed winds at the SFC veering with height along
the boundary may result in storms with rotation. Damaging winds is
likely the biggest risk this evening as 500-700 mb winds increase to
50-60 knots by 00z. As stronger storms develop they will have the
potential to mix down these winds to the surface. Concern for large
hail is low especially given high PWAT values across the area around
1.5 inches.

However, due to high PWAT values, heavy rain and minor flooding is a
concern especially given already saturated ground. Widespread
0.75 to 1 inch rainfall with locally heavier amounts in stronger
thunderstorms. CAM guidance indicating potential for even higher
amounts, but held off bumping up QPF further due to some
uncertainty.

Tomorrow, mild weather again with high in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Dry conditions in the morning before showers and thunderstorms
fire up in the afternoon along a residual boundary leftover from
previous nights storms. Kept inherited chance pops as its still
uncertain where the boundary will set up. &&

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Continued chances for rain in the long term as active pattern
repeats itself again on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain and
thunderstorms chances will once again depend on upstream
convection that makes its way towards the Great Lakes. A brief
break in the pattern with a rare dry day Friday and into the day
on Saturday. Another shortwave drops down into the area Sat
afternoon bringing once again rain to the area into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, will continue to
impact KSBN through approximately 01z and KFWA between 00z and
02z. A convectively aided vort max and sfc warm front are
providing the forcing for this convection. Brief IFR/low MVFR
conditions possible. Shower/storm chances quickly diminish later
this evening into Tuesday morning, though cannot completely rule
out scattered showers/iso thunder in the vicinity of a frontal
boundary that will linger across the Lower Great Lakes region.
Some MVFR, possibly IFR, stratus may creep back into mainly KSBN
later tonight into Tuesday morning near the leftover frontal
zone.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Heidelberger
LONG TERM...Heidelberger
AVIATION...Steinwedel

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>