Tornado Warning 18, NWS Northern Indiana

750 
WWUS53 KIWX 280144
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
944 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INC001-280154-
/O.CAN.KIWX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-190528T0200Z/
Adams IN-
944 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for northeastern
Indiana. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
west central Ohio.

LAT...LON 4069 8504 4078 8505 4081 8480 4067 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 260DEG 18KT 4076 8488 

$$

JBALL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, will move east through
the area this evening. A frontal boundary will linger across the
region Tuesday through Thursday with periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally be near normal
through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Temperatures this afternoon expected to warm up into the upper 70s
to near 80. Cloud cover this afternoon will increase ahead of strong
system to our west. Lingering low clouds/fog from Lake Michigan
stretching southeast through SBN and FWA finally eroding away. This
feature may play a role with stronger storms this evening as it acts
as a differential heating boundary.

Strong low pressure system spinning over IA/MN this afternoon will
be the focus in the short term for severe weather across our area.
Leading warm front will lift northward this afternoon with a few
showers and thunderstorms along it possible. Severe risk with these
storms will be limited but cannot rule out gusty winds and small
hail.

Severe risk increases late this afternoon into the evening as warm
front lifts farther north. All severe hazards in play for tonight
including damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornado, and heavy
rain. Behind the front, SFC based instability increasing to 2000
j/kg and deep layer shear ranging from 50-60 knots. Long and curved
hodographs with backed winds at the SFC veering with height along
the boundary may result in storms with rotation. Damaging winds is
likely the biggest risk this evening as 500-700 mb winds increase to
50-60 knots by 00z. As stronger storms develop they will have the
potential to mix down these winds to the surface. Concern for large
hail is low especially given high PWAT values across the area around
1.5 inches.

However, due to high PWAT values, heavy rain and minor flooding is a
concern especially given already saturated ground. Widespread
0.75 to 1 inch rainfall with locally heavier amounts in stronger
thunderstorms. CAM guidance indicating potential for even higher
amounts, but held off bumping up QPF further due to some
uncertainty.

Tomorrow, mild weather again with high in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Dry conditions in the morning before showers and thunderstorms
fire up in the afternoon along a residual boundary leftover from
previous nights storms. Kept inherited chance pops as its still
uncertain where the boundary will set up. &&

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Continued chances for rain in the long term as active pattern
repeats itself again on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain and
thunderstorms chances will once again depend on upstream
convection that makes its way towards the Great Lakes. A brief
break in the pattern with a rare dry day Friday and into the day
on Saturday. Another shortwave drops down into the area Sat
afternoon bringing once again rain to the area into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, will continue to
impact KSBN through approximately 01z and KFWA between 00z and
02z. A convectively aided vort max and sfc warm front are
providing the forcing for this convection. Brief IFR/low MVFR
conditions possible. Shower/storm chances quickly diminish later
this evening into Tuesday morning, though cannot completely rule
out scattered showers/iso thunder in the vicinity of a frontal
boundary that will linger across the Lower Great Lakes region.
Some MVFR, possibly IFR, stratus may creep back into mainly KSBN
later tonight into Tuesday morning near the leftover frontal
zone.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Heidelberger
LONG TERM...Heidelberger
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>024-032-MIZ077-078-282000-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-
Kosciusko-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Grant-Berrien-Cass MI-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 /248 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019/

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Thunderstorms will become likely late this afternoon into this
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes
possible threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early
evening. Chances of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday into
Thursday but confidence remains low at this time regarding the
potential of severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at
times from Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed across the area late this
afternoon into this evening.

INZ006>009-017-018-025>027-033-034-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-282000-
Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Whitley-Allen IN-Huntington-Wells-
Adams-Blackford-Jay-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will become this evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible with large hail, damaging winds,
locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes possible threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early
evening. Chances of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday into
Thursday but confidence remains low at this time regarding the
potential of severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at
times from Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

LMZ043-046-282000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Thunderstorms will become likely late this afternoon into early this
evening. Severe storms are possible with large hail and wind gusts
in excess of 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms will continue for Tuesday through
Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
854 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TORNADO          1 N JALAPA              40.64N 85.75W
05/27/2019                   GRANT              IN   PUBLIC

            PICTURE FROM SOCIAL MEDIA OF CONE TORNADO ON
            THE GROUND.

&&

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
904 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW NEVADA MILLS      41.74N 85.12W
05/27/2019                   STEUBEN            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES 2-3 MILES EAST OF
            ORLAND.

&&

BROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
907 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TORNADO          2 N TUNKER              41.08N 85.56W
05/27/2019                   WHITLEY            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

&&

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
909 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TORNADO          1 WSW DISKO             41.00N 85.96W
05/27/2019                   MIAMI              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GRAIN BIN DAMAGED.

&&

CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
912 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE WELLS             40.74N 86.09W
05/27/2019  M1.63 INCH       MIAMI              IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
917 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     FLOOD            1 NE WALLEN             41.17N 85.14W
05/27/2019                   ALLEN              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 TO 2 INCHES ON ROADWAYS.

&&

CR