Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Northern Indiana

870 
WGUS73 KIWX 280159
FFSIWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
959 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INC053-069-169-280209-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190528T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wabash IN-Grant IN-Huntington IN-
959 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WABASH...NORTHWESTERN GRANT
AND SOUTHWESTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4065 8586 4065 8594 4081 8594 4088 8558
      4064 8558 4057 8586

$$

Brown

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, will move east through
the area this evening. A frontal boundary will linger across the
region Tuesday through Thursday with periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally be near normal
through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Temperatures this afternoon expected to warm up into the upper 70s
to near 80. Cloud cover this afternoon will increase ahead of strong
system to our west. Lingering low clouds/fog from Lake Michigan
stretching southeast through SBN and FWA finally eroding away. This
feature may play a role with stronger storms this evening as it acts
as a differential heating boundary.

Strong low pressure system spinning over IA/MN this afternoon will
be the focus in the short term for severe weather across our area.
Leading warm front will lift northward this afternoon with a few
showers and thunderstorms along it possible. Severe risk with these
storms will be limited but cannot rule out gusty winds and small
hail.

Severe risk increases late this afternoon into the evening as warm
front lifts farther north. All severe hazards in play for tonight
including damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornado, and heavy
rain. Behind the front, SFC based instability increasing to 2000
j/kg and deep layer shear ranging from 50-60 knots. Long and curved
hodographs with backed winds at the SFC veering with height along
the boundary may result in storms with rotation. Damaging winds is
likely the biggest risk this evening as 500-700 mb winds increase to
50-60 knots by 00z. As stronger storms develop they will have the
potential to mix down these winds to the surface. Concern for large
hail is low especially given high PWAT values across the area around
1.5 inches.

However, due to high PWAT values, heavy rain and minor flooding is a
concern especially given already saturated ground. Widespread
0.75 to 1 inch rainfall with locally heavier amounts in stronger
thunderstorms. CAM guidance indicating potential for even higher
amounts, but held off bumping up QPF further due to some
uncertainty.

Tomorrow, mild weather again with high in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Dry conditions in the morning before showers and thunderstorms
fire up in the afternoon along a residual boundary leftover from
previous nights storms. Kept inherited chance pops as its still
uncertain where the boundary will set up. &&

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Continued chances for rain in the long term as active pattern
repeats itself again on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain and
thunderstorms chances will once again depend on upstream
convection that makes its way towards the Great Lakes. A brief
break in the pattern with a rare dry day Friday and into the day
on Saturday. Another shortwave drops down into the area Sat
afternoon bringing once again rain to the area into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, will continue to
impact KSBN through approximately 01z and KFWA between 00z and
02z. A convectively aided vort max and sfc warm front are
providing the forcing for this convection. Brief IFR/low MVFR
conditions possible. Shower/storm chances quickly diminish later
this evening into Tuesday morning, though cannot completely rule
out scattered showers/iso thunder in the vicinity of a frontal
boundary that will linger across the Lower Great Lakes region.
Some MVFR, possibly IFR, stratus may creep back into mainly KSBN
later tonight into Tuesday morning near the leftover frontal
zone.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Heidelberger
LONG TERM...Heidelberger
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>024-032-MIZ077-078-282000-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-
Kosciusko-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Grant-Berrien-Cass MI-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 /248 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019/

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Thunderstorms will become likely late this afternoon into this
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes
possible threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early
evening. Chances of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday into
Thursday but confidence remains low at this time regarding the
potential of severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at
times from Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed across the area late this
afternoon into this evening.

INZ006>009-017-018-025>027-033-034-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-282000-
Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Whitley-Allen IN-Huntington-Wells-
Adams-Blackford-Jay-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will become this evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible with large hail, damaging winds,
locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes possible threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early
evening. Chances of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday into
Thursday but confidence remains low at this time regarding the
potential of severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at
times from Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

LMZ043-046-282000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Thunderstorms will become likely late this afternoon into early this
evening. Severe storms are possible with large hail and wind gusts
in excess of 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms will continue for Tuesday through
Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
829 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TORNADO          2 N MACY                40.98N 86.13W
05/27/2019                   MIAMI              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS TRAINED SPOTTER
            SEES A TORNADO.

&&

BROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
831 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             2 E JALAPA              40.63N 85.70W
05/27/2019  E0.88 INCH       GRANT              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
833 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             WALTON                  40.66N 86.24W
05/27/2019  E0.25 INCH       CASS               IN   PUBLIC

&&

BROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
837 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW GULIVOIRE PARK    41.63N 86.32W
05/27/2019                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS 3-4 IN DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

BROWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
840 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             LA FONTAINE             40.68N 85.72W
05/27/2019  E1.50 INCH       WABASH             IN   PUBLIC

            PICTURE FROM SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
841 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TORNADO          1 NNE MACY              40.97N 86.13W
05/27/2019                   MIAMI              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HOMES AND BUILDINGS DAMAGED.

&&

BROWN