Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Northern Indiana

906 
WGUS73 KIWX 280155
FFSIWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
955 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INC017-103-280205-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190528T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cass IN-Miami IN-
955 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CASS AND SOUTHERN MIAMI
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4056 8637 4069 8637 4069 8640 4078 8641
      4080 8594 4065 8594 4065 8587 4061 8586
      4057 8587

$$

Brown

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Thunderstorms, possibly strong to severe, will move east through
the area this evening. A frontal boundary will linger across the
region Tuesday through Thursday with periodic chances for showers
and thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally be near normal
through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Temperatures this afternoon expected to warm up into the upper 70s
to near 80. Cloud cover this afternoon will increase ahead of strong
system to our west. Lingering low clouds/fog from Lake Michigan
stretching southeast through SBN and FWA finally eroding away. This
feature may play a role with stronger storms this evening as it acts
as a differential heating boundary.

Strong low pressure system spinning over IA/MN this afternoon will
be the focus in the short term for severe weather across our area.
Leading warm front will lift northward this afternoon with a few
showers and thunderstorms along it possible. Severe risk with these
storms will be limited but cannot rule out gusty winds and small
hail.

Severe risk increases late this afternoon into the evening as warm
front lifts farther north. All severe hazards in play for tonight
including damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornado, and heavy
rain. Behind the front, SFC based instability increasing to 2000
j/kg and deep layer shear ranging from 50-60 knots. Long and curved
hodographs with backed winds at the SFC veering with height along
the boundary may result in storms with rotation. Damaging winds is
likely the biggest risk this evening as 500-700 mb winds increase to
50-60 knots by 00z. As stronger storms develop they will have the
potential to mix down these winds to the surface. Concern for large
hail is low especially given high PWAT values across the area around
1.5 inches.

However, due to high PWAT values, heavy rain and minor flooding is a
concern especially given already saturated ground. Widespread
0.75 to 1 inch rainfall with locally heavier amounts in stronger
thunderstorms. CAM guidance indicating potential for even higher
amounts, but held off bumping up QPF further due to some
uncertainty.

Tomorrow, mild weather again with high in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Dry conditions in the morning before showers and thunderstorms
fire up in the afternoon along a residual boundary leftover from
previous nights storms. Kept inherited chance pops as its still
uncertain where the boundary will set up. &&

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Continued chances for rain in the long term as active pattern
repeats itself again on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain and
thunderstorms chances will once again depend on upstream
convection that makes its way towards the Great Lakes. A brief
break in the pattern with a rare dry day Friday and into the day
on Saturday. Another shortwave drops down into the area Sat
afternoon bringing once again rain to the area into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

Thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, will continue to
impact KSBN through approximately 01z and KFWA between 00z and
02z. A convectively aided vort max and sfc warm front are
providing the forcing for this convection. Brief IFR/low MVFR
conditions possible. Shower/storm chances quickly diminish later
this evening into Tuesday morning, though cannot completely rule
out scattered showers/iso thunder in the vicinity of a frontal
boundary that will linger across the Lower Great Lakes region.
Some MVFR, possibly IFR, stratus may creep back into mainly KSBN
later tonight into Tuesday morning near the leftover frontal
zone.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Heidelberger
LONG TERM...Heidelberger
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INZ003>005-012>016-020-022>024-032-MIZ077-078-282000-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-
Kosciusko-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Grant-Berrien-Cass MI-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 /248 PM CDT Mon May 27 2019/

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Thunderstorms will become likely late this afternoon into this
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail,
damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes
possible threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early
evening. Chances of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday into
Thursday but confidence remains low at this time regarding the
potential of severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at
times from Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will likely be needed across the area late this
afternoon into this evening.

INZ006>009-017-018-025>027-033-034-MIZ079>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
016-024-025-282000-
Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Whitley-Allen IN-Huntington-Wells-
Adams-Blackford-Jay-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will become this evening. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible with large hail, damaging winds,
locally heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes possible threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into early
evening. Chances of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday into
Thursday but confidence remains low at this time regarding the
potential of severe weather. Locally heavy rainfall is possible at
times from Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

LMZ043-046-282000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
348 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 263 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Thunderstorms will become likely late this afternoon into early this
evening. Severe storms are possible with large hail and wind gusts
in excess of 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms will continue for Tuesday through
Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW SOUTH BEND         41.70N 86.31W
05/27/2019  M1.52 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   ASOS

            SOUTH BEND AIRPORT MEASURED 1.52 INCHES OF
            RAIN IN 35 MINUTES.

&&

MCS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
654 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

OHZ001-002-272330-
Fulton-Williams-
654 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FULTON AND EASTERN WILLIAMS
COUNTIES...

At 654 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stryker, or
near Archbold, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wauseon, Archbold, Delta, West Unity, Stryker, Fayette, Oakshade,
Alvordton, Pettisville, Zone, Denson, Winameg, Elmira, Tedrow and
Ottokee.

This includes Interstate 80 in Ohio between mile markers 16 and 42.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 8430 4149 8433 4147 8434 4145 8442
      4156 8455 4171 8441 4171 8414 4158 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 238DEG 35KT 4153 8442

HAIL...0.50IN
WIND...30MPH

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
715 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INZ015-016-280000-
Kosciusko-Fulton-
715 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FULTON AND SOUTHWESTERN
KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES...

At 715 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles east of
Winamac, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Rochester around 735 PM EDT.
  Akron and Mentone around 750 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Bruce Lake Station,
Sevastopol, Tiosa, Kewanna, Beaver Dam, Lake Manitou, Athens and
Talma.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for north central
Indiana.

LAT...LON 4110 8646 4117 8618 4117 8606 4120 8605
      4122 8599 4101 8598 4099 8644
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 259DEG 30KT 4104 8641

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...30MPH

JBALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
718 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W GULIVOIRE PARK      41.62N 86.32W
05/27/2019                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE BRANCHES DOWN 3 TO 4 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER.

&&

GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
729 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

INZ005-006-MIZ079-280015-
Lagrange-Elkhart-St. Joseph-
729 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ELKHART...LAGRANGE
AND SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES...

At 728 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Middlebury, or
10 miles northeast of Goshen, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sturgis, Lagrange, Middlebury, Scott, Fawn River, Shipshewana,
Brighton, Woodruff, Adams Lake, Oliver Lake, Howe, Plato, Ontario and
Emma.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 102 and
129.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 8529 4176 8526 4154 8526 4161 8579
      4176 8578 4183 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 269DEG 27KT 4169 8569

HAIL...0.50IN
WIND...50MPH

CM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
732 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             LAKE CICOTT             40.76N 86.53W
05/27/2019  M1.00 INCH       CASS               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CR