Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
156 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1058 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019/

UPDATE...

With steadily increasing deep moisture over the forecast area, the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms is once again expected to
increase relative to the previous few days. Likely PoPs across far
north Georgia and high-end chance PoPs across central Georgia are
anticipated by mid-afternoon. High precipitable water coupled with
slow storm motion will contribute to the potential for some
isolated flash flooding concerns where heavy rain persists for a
prolonged amount of time. A few storms this afternoon and evening
could also be strong to severe and produce gusty winds and
frequent lightning in addition to the heavy rain. The forecast
remains on track through the morning, with only minor adjustments
made based on the latest guidance.

King

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 744 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019/

UPDATE...
Updated for aviation. Also removed mention of fog in most areas as
vis imagery shows little coverage to fog. Rest of fcst looks good.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 432 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Pattern not expected to change much next 48 hours, still stuck in
the middle of two large upper ridges with plenty of moisture.
Another slight increase in coverage of convection this afternoon/
evening compared to last few days. PoPs in likely category over
north GA but decent coverage expected over middle GA as well. Same
story for Friday afternoon/evening but with likely PoPs over the
entire area.

As seen last two days, a few storms this afternoon/evening will
approach or briefly reach severe criteria with damaging winds and
frequent lightning. PW values also a bit higher today, approaching
80th percentile for this time of year, around 1.8-2.0 inches. This
high PW and weak mean winds will increase risk of flash flooding
today and Friday, though gridded FFG quite high, esp over middle GA
due to overall dry soil conditions from lack of rainfall last few
weeks.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

A broad upper level southeast trough will continue to dominate
the weather for GA. Also...a weak and diffuse boundary will linger
over the state. This combined with increasing tropical moisture
will support mainly chance pops through the long term. The pattern
will be mostly diurnal but showers and thunderstorms could last
well into the evening hours. A weak tropical disturbance over Cuba
and the Bahamas should slowly approach FL by Friday and then turn
gradually northeast over the weekend. The upper trough eventually
drifts a bit east toward the Atlantic Coast by mid week...putting
our area in a more west to northwest flow aloft. However...still
a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through the rest of the day, with the exception of some possible
MVFR vsby restrictions where TSRA occurs. Scattered SHRA/TSRA has
begun to develop across the area and will increase in coverage
across north Georgia through the afternoon. TEMPO group for TSRA
has been maintained for all sites for 20-24Z when coverage is
expected to be the greatest, with VCSH remaining until after 03Z
as precipitation is expected to be slow to diminish. Nearly S
winds at 4-8 kts to begin the TAF period are expected to shift to
E at 3-6 kts by 00Z and remain so through Friday morning. BKN low
MVFR cloud deck is expected to build in early tomorrow morning
around 11-12Z, along with some 4-5 SM vsby restrictions at
CSG/MCN/AHN.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  69  86  68 /  70  60  60  50
Atlanta         92  71  85  69 /  60  60  60  50
Blairsville     83  63  79  62 /  70  60  60  50
Cartersville    91  69  86  69 /  60  60  60  40
Columbus        96  72  89  70 /  50  50  50  40
Gainesville     90  69  84  68 /  60  60  60  50
Macon           96  70  88  69 /  50  50  70  50
Rome            92  69  87  69 /  60  50  50  30
Peachtree City  92  69  85  69 /  60  60  60  40
Vidalia         97  72  89  70 /  40  30  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
531 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-020945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
531 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few
storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. The chance for widespread severe weather is low...but a few
storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
211 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ012-013-020-021-011845-
Cherokee GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Pickens GA-
211 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE...
SOUTHEASTERN GORDON...NORTHEASTERN BARTOW AND SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 210 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Fairmount, or 14 miles
west of Jasper...moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Fairmount, Ranger, Talmadge, Folsom, Funkhouser, Hinton and Blaine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3452 8477 3451 8454 3442 8452 3437 8461
      3438 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 282DEG 5KT 3445 8468

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
214 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ006-011900-
Fannin GA-
214 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FANNIN COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

At 214 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Jones Mill, or 10
miles southwest of Ducktown. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cohutta Wilderness, Colwell and Jones Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8442 3486 8445 3486 8462 3499 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 292DEG 2KT 3495 8454

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
217 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ085-086-097-011845-
Emanuel GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
217 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN EMANUEL...JOHNSON AND
NORTHEASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 216 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Scott, or 11 miles
south of Wrightsville...moving northwest at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Wrightsville, Adrian, Lovett, Spann, Donovan, Meeks, Brewton and
Scott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3259 8251 3250 8261 3251 8265 3250 8265
      3249 8264 3246 8266 3263 8294 3278 8277
      3277 8277 3280 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 134DEG 14KT 3258 8265

WIND...40MPH