Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

The overall pattern is expected to remain consistent through the
short term period. The southeastern CONUS remains between two large
upper level ridges, with one ridge positioned over north Texas and
into the high plains, and the other positioned over the Atlantic.
Between the two, a large upper level trough is extending from the
Great Lakes region and southward into the Gulf of Mexico. The axis
of this trough will remain through Georgia over the next couple of
days. Deep moisture and weak flow aloft is solidly in place over the
forecast area. Steadily increasing moisture has led to another
slight increase in the coverage in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, and will increase once again tomorrow. Precipitable water
values are in the 1.8 to 2 inch range across north and central
Georgia, which is around the 80th percentile for this time of year.
Persistent broken cloud coverage starting in the early morning and
remaining through the day tomorrow will keep temperatures a bit
lower than today, in mainly the mid to upper 80s across north and
central Georgia.

Scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing and are expected to continue to increase in coverage through
the late afternoon. PoPs will range high-end chance to likely PoPs
throughout the area. The combination of high precipitable water
values and weak mean flow could lend itself to heavy rainfall and a
threat for some isolated flash flooding where stronger storms remain
over an area for a prolonged time, or outflow boundary interactions
briefly enhance rainfall. However, it is worth noting that a lack of
recent rainfall over central Georgia has led to dry soils, which
would reduce the risk of flooding there. The coverage of afternoon
convection tomorrow will again be slightly greater than today, with
mainly likely PoPs expected across the forecast area by mid-
afternoon. Although bulk shear remains weak and lapse rates are not
overly impressive, MUCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and SBCAPE values
of 1000-1500 J/kg are progged this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
A few storms could be strong to severe each afternoon and early
evening, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard. Frequent
lightning and the aforementioned locally heavy rain are also to be
expected with any stronger storms that occur.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The synoptic setup will continue to be pretty stationary through the
long term period with a trough across the area wedged between high
pressure centered near Texas to the west and high pressure over the
Atlantic to our east. In addition to a nearly stationary boundary
lingering across northern portions of the area, another area of
disturbed weather is expected to be near the eastern coast of
Florida and is expected to move northeastward and away from the
southeast coast by Sunday. As this area nears the Georgia coast,
tropical moisture will continue to move into the area on Saturday
prompting the introduction of likely pops in the afternoon and
evening. Another perturbation is expected to move through the trough
on Sunday/Monday before the trough shifts just slightly to the east,
shifting the area into northwest flow aloft. Overall, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the
extended, although they are expected to be mainly diurnally driven.
Have included chance to high-end chance pops during the day through
the first have of next week, with mainly slight chance to chance
pops afterward. The potential remains for some storms to linger late
into the evenings, so have kept slight chance to chance pops
overnight through many days of the extended. Being in this pattern,
the potential for strong to isolated severe storms any day will also
exist, with the main hazards being gusty winds, periods of heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning.

Temperatures through the extended period are forecast to be within a
few degrees of average. High temperatures are expected to be in the
mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 60s to lower 70s across the area.

Reaves

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through the rest of the day, with the exception of some possible
MVFR vsby restrictions where TSRA occurs. Scattered SHRA/TSRA has
begun to develop across the area and will increase in coverage
across north Georgia through the afternoon. TEMPO group for TSRA
has been maintained for all sites for 20-24Z when coverage is
expected to be the greatest, with VCSH remaining until after 03Z
as precipitation is expected to be slow to diminish. Nearly S
winds at 4-8 kts to begin the TAF period are expected to shift to
E at 3-6 kts by 00Z and remain so through Friday morning. BKN low
MVFR cloud deck is expected to build in early tomorrow morning
around 11-12Z, along with some 4-5 SM vsby restrictions at
CSG/MCN/AHN.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  87  69  87 /  40  60  40  50
Atlanta         70  85  70  86 /  40  60  50  50
Blairsville     64  78  63  79 /  40  60  50  60
Cartersville    69  85  69  88 /  30  50  40  50
Columbus        71  88  71  90 /  50  60  50  40
Gainesville     69  83  68  86 /  40  60  50  50
Macon           70  89  70  89 /  50  60  50  40
Rome            69  87  69  88 /  30  50  30  40
Peachtree City  69  86  69  88 /  40  60  40  40
Vidalia         72  88  71  90 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few
storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. The chance for widespread severe weather is low...but a few
storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
550 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW TURIN              33.30N  84.66W
08/01/2019                   COWETA             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            AT LEAST ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 54
            AND JOHNSON RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900604

KMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
550 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ037-049-050-012230-
Morgan GA-Greene GA-Oconee GA-
550 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 550 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Madison...moving
northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Madison, Watkinsville, Bostwick, Bishop, Wrayswood, Hard Labor Creek
State Park, Greshamville, Farmington and Apalachee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3352 8346 3365 8361 3386 8343 3368 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 225DEG 14KT 3364 8347

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
551 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ005-007-012215-
Gilmer GA-Murray GA-
551 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GILMER AND
SOUTHEASTERN MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 551 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ramhurst, or near
Chatsworth...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Chatsworth, Mountaintown, Fort Mountain State Park, Tails Creek and
Ramhurst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3465 8459 3465 8477 3481 8479 3480 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 188DEG 7KT 3470 8470

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
554 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ072-080>083-093>095-012245-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Taylor GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-
Twiggs GA-
554 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MACON...PEACH...
SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR...SOUTHEASTERN BIBB...NORTHERN HOUSTON...
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHERN JONES AND NORTHWESTERN TWIGGS
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 553 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Franklinton to Byron to Potterville. These storms were
nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Macon, Fort Valley, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Nakomis,
Rutland, Griswoldville, Garden Valley, Hicks, Potterville, Lakewood,
Huber, Cross Keys, Dry Branch, Powerville, Skipperton, Elberta,
Franklinton and Middle Georgia Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3245 8429 3263 8385 3289 8358 3289 8340
      3283 8337 3263 8359 3243 8411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 258DEG 1KT 3282 8356 3265 8377 3250 8414

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
556 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             1 SE DORAVILLE          33.89N  84.26W
08/01/2019  E1.00 INCH       DEKALB             GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL FELL AT THE I-85/I-285 INTERCHANGE
            ALONG WITH ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900605

RWILLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
601 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE DORAVILLE          33.89N  84.26W
08/01/2019  M57 MPH          DEKALB             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED A WEATHER STATION MEASURED A
            57 MPH WIND GUST AT I-85/I-285 INTERCHANGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900606

RWILLIS