Severe Thunderstorm Warning 257, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

The overall pattern is expected to remain consistent through the
short term period. The southeastern CONUS remains between two large
upper level ridges, with one ridge positioned over north Texas and
into the high plains, and the other positioned over the Atlantic.
Between the two, a large upper level trough is extending from the
Great Lakes region and southward into the Gulf of Mexico. The axis
of this trough will remain through Georgia over the next couple of
days. Deep moisture and weak flow aloft is solidly in place over the
forecast area. Steadily increasing moisture has led to another
slight increase in the coverage in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, and will increase once again tomorrow. Precipitable water
values are in the 1.8 to 2 inch range across north and central
Georgia, which is around the 80th percentile for this time of year.
Persistent broken cloud coverage starting in the early morning and
remaining through the day tomorrow will keep temperatures a bit
lower than today, in mainly the mid to upper 80s across north and
central Georgia.

Scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing and are expected to continue to increase in coverage through
the late afternoon. PoPs will range high-end chance to likely PoPs
throughout the area. The combination of high precipitable water
values and weak mean flow could lend itself to heavy rainfall and a
threat for some isolated flash flooding where stronger storms remain
over an area for a prolonged time, or outflow boundary interactions
briefly enhance rainfall. However, it is worth noting that a lack of
recent rainfall over central Georgia has led to dry soils, which
would reduce the risk of flooding there. The coverage of afternoon
convection tomorrow will again be slightly greater than today, with
mainly likely PoPs expected across the forecast area by mid-
afternoon. Although bulk shear remains weak and lapse rates are not
overly impressive, MUCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and SBCAPE values
of 1000-1500 J/kg are progged this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
A few storms could be strong to severe each afternoon and early
evening, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard. Frequent
lightning and the aforementioned locally heavy rain are also to be
expected with any stronger storms that occur.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The synoptic setup will continue to be pretty stationary through the
long term period with a trough across the area wedged between high
pressure centered near Texas to the west and high pressure over the
Atlantic to our east. In addition to a nearly stationary boundary
lingering across northern portions of the area, another area of
disturbed weather is expected to be near the eastern coast of
Florida and is expected to move northeastward and away from the
southeast coast by Sunday. As this area nears the Georgia coast,
tropical moisture will continue to move into the area on Saturday
prompting the introduction of likely pops in the afternoon and
evening. Another perturbation is expected to move through the trough
on Sunday/Monday before the trough shifts just slightly to the east,
shifting the area into northwest flow aloft. Overall, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the
extended, although they are expected to be mainly diurnally driven.
Have included chance to high-end chance pops during the day through
the first have of next week, with mainly slight chance to chance
pops afterward. The potential remains for some storms to linger late
into the evenings, so have kept slight chance to chance pops
overnight through many days of the extended. Being in this pattern,
the potential for strong to isolated severe storms any day will also
exist, with the main hazards being gusty winds, periods of heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning.

Temperatures through the extended period are forecast to be within a
few degrees of average. High temperatures are expected to be in the
mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 60s to lower 70s across the area.

Reaves

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through the rest of the day, with the exception of some possible
MVFR vsby restrictions where TSRA occurs. Scattered SHRA/TSRA has
begun to develop across the area and will increase in coverage
across north Georgia through the afternoon. TEMPO group for TSRA
has been maintained for all sites for 20-24Z when coverage is
expected to be the greatest, with VCSH remaining until after 03Z
as precipitation is expected to be slow to diminish. Nearly S
winds at 4-8 kts to begin the TAF period are expected to shift to
E at 3-6 kts by 00Z and remain so through Friday morning. BKN low
MVFR cloud deck is expected to build in early tomorrow morning
around 11-12Z, along with some 4-5 SM vsby restrictions at
CSG/MCN/AHN.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  87  69  87 /  40  60  40  50
Atlanta         70  85  70  86 /  40  60  50  50
Blairsville     64  78  63  79 /  40  60  50  60
Cartersville    69  85  69  88 /  30  50  40  50
Columbus        71  88  71  90 /  50  60  50  40
Gainesville     69  83  68  86 /  40  60  50  50
Macon           70  89  70  89 /  50  60  50  40
Rome            69  87  69  88 /  30  50  30  40
Peachtree City  69  86  69  88 /  40  60  40  40
Vidalia         72  88  71  90 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few
storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. The chance for widespread severe weather is low...but a few
storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
441 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ001-002-012115-
Walker GA-Dade GA-
441 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND DADE
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 440 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Rising Fawn, or near
Trenton...moving northeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Trenton, Chickamauga, Lookout Mountain, Rising Fawn, Wildwood,
Fairview, Stephensville, Chattanooga  Valley, New England,
Morganville, Hooker, Cloudland Canyon State Park, Cooper Heights and
Rock Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3498 8533 3496 8527 3486 8526 3486 8520
      3484 8520 3471 8536 3464 8554 3489 8559
      3498 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 225DEG 5KT 3479 8553

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
441 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ113-012115-
Toombs GA-
441 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TOOMBS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 441 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over New Branch, or 7 miles
west of Reidsville...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lyons, Vidalia, Santa Claus, Toombs Central, Ohoopee, New Branch,
Ponderosa and Johnson Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3214 8220 3213 8219 3197 8222 3200 8236
      3224 8235 3220 8219 3216 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 193DEG 7KT 3205 8225

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
444 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ082-012115-
Bibb GA-
444 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BIBB COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Wesleyan, or 7 miles
northwest of Macon...moving north at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Macon, Payne, Payne City, Wesleyan, Lake Tobesofkee and Arkwright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3284 8388 3286 8388 3290 8382 3294 8373
      3295 8373 3295 8370 3292 8370 3290 8367
      3289 8366 3289 8361 3279 8367
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 195DEG 6KT 3289 8376

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
453 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     LIGHTNING        3 ENE MINTER            32.51N  82.71W
08/01/2019                   LAURENS            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FIRE POSSIBLY DUE TO LIGHTNING REPORTED BY EM NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF ROCKLEDGE RD. AND YOUNGBLOOD RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900600

LUSK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
503 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ019-012130-
Floyd GA-
503 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FLOYD COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

At 503 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Rome...moving north at
10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Shannon, Pinson and Armuchee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3441 8524 3441 8522 3443 8521 3444 8517
      3443 8509 3442 8509 3441 8511 3440 8510
      3440 8503 3439 8502 3439 8501 3438 8500
      3422 8507 3427 8528 3438 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 195DEG 7KT 3432 8516

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
506 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW ALSTON            32.11N  82.54W
08/01/2019                   MONTGOMERY         GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN BETWEEN HWY 221 AND THE
            INTERSECTION OF FIRE TOWER ROAD AND MILLIGAN CREEK ROAD.
            REPORT FROM EMA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900601

DJN