Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1058 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.UPDATE...

With steadily increasing deep moisture over the forecast area, the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms is once again expected to
increase relative to the previous few days. Likely PoPs across far
north Georgia and high-end chance PoPs across central Georgia are
anticipated by mid-afternoon. High precipitable water coupled with
slow storm motion will contribute to the potential for some
isolated flash flooding concerns where heavy rain persists for a
prolonged amount of time. A few storms this afternoon and evening
could also be strong to severe and produce gusty winds and
frequent lightning in addition to the heavy rain. The forecast
remains on track through the morning, with only minor adjustments
made based on the latest guidance.

King

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 744 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019/

UPDATE...
Updated for aviation. Also removed mention of fog in most areas as
vis imagery shows little coverage to fog. Rest of fcst looks good.

SNELSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 432 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

Pattern not expected to change much next 48 hours, still stuck in
the middle of two large upper ridges with plenty of moisture.
Another slight increase in coverage of convection this afternoon/
evening compared to last few days. PoPs in likely category over
north GA but decent coverage expected over middle GA as well. Same
story for Friday afternoon/evening but with likely PoPs over the
entire area.

As seen last two days, a few storms this afternoon/evening will
approach or briefly reach severe criteria with damaging winds and
frequent lightning. PW values also a bit higher today, approaching
80th percentile for this time of year, around 1.8-2.0 inches. This
high PW and weak mean winds will increase risk of flash flooding
today and Friday, though gridded FFG quite high, esp over middle GA
due to overall dry soil conditions from lack of rainfall last few
weeks.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

A broad upper level southeast trough will continue to dominate
the weather for GA. Also...a weak and diffuse boundary will linger
over the state. This combined with increasing tropical moisture
will support mainly chance pops through the long term. The pattern
will be mostly diurnal but showers and thunderstorms could last
well into the evening hours. A weak tropical disturbance over Cuba
and the Bahamas should slowly approach FL by Friday and then turn
gradually northeast over the weekend. The upper trough eventually
drifts a bit east toward the Atlantic Coast by mid week...putting
our area in a more west to northwest flow aloft. However...still
a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

41

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions expected. Scattered SHRA/TSRA most likely from
20-24Z. Have TEMPO at all forecast points. Activity will diminish
slowly by 03Z but some isold -SHRA will linger into the overnight
hours. Sfc winds E-NE 3-4kts before going to SW 4-8kts after 18Z
then back to E-NE 3-6kts after 23Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on wind direction timing.
High confidence with all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  69  86  68 /  70  60  60  50
Atlanta         92  71  85  69 /  60  60  60  50
Blairsville     83  63  79  62 /  70  60  60  50
Cartersville    91  69  86  69 /  60  60  60  40
Columbus        96  72  89  70 /  50  50  50  40
Gainesville     90  69  84  68 /  60  60  60  50
Macon           96  70  88  69 /  50  50  70  50
Rome            92  69  87  69 /  60  50  50  30
Peachtree City  92  69  85  69 /  60  60  60  40
Vidalia         97  72  89  70 /  40  30  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
531 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-020945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
531 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few
storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. The chance for widespread severe weather is low...but a few
storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1225 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ086-011700-
Emanuel GA-
1225 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL 100
PM EDT...

At 1225 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Twin City, or 7 miles
southeast of Swainsboro...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Twin City, Garfield, Canoochee, George L Smith State Park
and Modoc.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3255 8211 3254 8212 3252 8215 3246 8219
      3248 8231 3270 8231 3267 8209 3266 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1625Z 190DEG 7KT 3255 8222

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

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