Severe Thunderstorm Warning 262, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
314 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

The overall pattern is expected to remain consistent through the
short term period. The southeastern CONUS remains between two large
upper level ridges, with one ridge positioned over north Texas and
into the high plains, and the other positioned over the Atlantic.
Between the two, a large upper level trough is extending from the
Great Lakes region and southward into the Gulf of Mexico. The axis
of this trough will remain through Georgia over the next couple of
days. Deep moisture and weak flow aloft is solidly in place over the
forecast area. Steadily increasing moisture has led to another
slight increase in the coverage in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, and will increase once again tomorrow. Precipitable water
values are in the 1.8 to 2 inch range across north and central
Georgia, which is around the 80th percentile for this time of year.
Persistent broken cloud coverage starting in the early morning and
remaining through the day tomorrow will keep temperatures a bit
lower than today, in mainly the mid to upper 80s across north and
central Georgia.

Scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
ongoing and are expected to continue to increase in coverage through
the late afternoon. PoPs will range high-end chance to likely PoPs
throughout the area. The combination of high precipitable water
values and weak mean flow could lend itself to heavy rainfall and a
threat for some isolated flash flooding where stronger storms remain
over an area for a prolonged time, or outflow boundary interactions
briefly enhance rainfall. However, it is worth noting that a lack of
recent rainfall over central Georgia has led to dry soils, which
would reduce the risk of flooding there. The coverage of afternoon
convection tomorrow will again be slightly greater than today, with
mainly likely PoPs expected across the forecast area by mid-
afternoon. Although bulk shear remains weak and lapse rates are not
overly impressive, MUCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and SBCAPE values
of 1000-1500 J/kg are progged this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
A few storms could be strong to severe each afternoon and early
evening, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard. Frequent
lightning and the aforementioned locally heavy rain are also to be
expected with any stronger storms that occur.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

The synoptic setup will continue to be pretty stationary through the
long term period with a trough across the area wedged between high
pressure centered near Texas to the west and high pressure over the
Atlantic to our east. In addition to a nearly stationary boundary
lingering across northern portions of the area, another area of
disturbed weather is expected to be near the eastern coast of
Florida and is expected to move northeastward and away from the
southeast coast by Sunday. As this area nears the Georgia coast,
tropical moisture will continue to move into the area on Saturday
prompting the introduction of likely pops in the afternoon and
evening. Another perturbation is expected to move through the trough
on Sunday/Monday before the trough shifts just slightly to the east,
shifting the area into northwest flow aloft. Overall, chances for
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the
extended, although they are expected to be mainly diurnally driven.
Have included chance to high-end chance pops during the day through
the first have of next week, with mainly slight chance to chance
pops afterward. The potential remains for some storms to linger late
into the evenings, so have kept slight chance to chance pops
overnight through many days of the extended. Being in this pattern,
the potential for strong to isolated severe storms any day will also
exist, with the main hazards being gusty winds, periods of heavy
rainfall, and frequent lightning.

Temperatures through the extended period are forecast to be within a
few degrees of average. High temperatures are expected to be in the
mid to upper 80s to the low to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 60s to lower 70s across the area.

Reaves

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through the rest of the day, with the exception of some possible
MVFR vsby restrictions where TSRA occurs. Scattered SHRA/TSRA has
begun to develop across the area and will increase in coverage
across north Georgia through the afternoon. TEMPO group for TSRA
has been maintained for all sites for 20-24Z when coverage is
expected to be the greatest, with VCSH remaining until after 03Z
as precipitation is expected to be slow to diminish. Nearly S
winds at 4-8 kts to begin the TAF period are expected to shift to
E at 3-6 kts by 00Z and remain so through Friday morning. BKN low
MVFR cloud deck is expected to build in early tomorrow morning
around 11-12Z, along with some 4-5 SM vsby restrictions at
CSG/MCN/AHN.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  87  69  87 /  40  60  40  50
Atlanta         70  85  70  86 /  40  60  50  50
Blairsville     64  78  63  79 /  40  60  50  60
Cartersville    69  85  69  88 /  30  50  40  50
Columbus        71  88  71  90 /  50  60  50  40
Gainesville     69  83  68  86 /  40  60  50  50
Macon           70  89  70  89 /  50  60  50  40
Rome            69  87  69  88 /  30  50  30  40
Peachtree City  69  86  69  88 /  40  60  40  40
Vidalia         72  88  71  90 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across north and central Georgia this afternoon and evening. A few
storms may become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each
day. The chance for widespread severe weather is low...but a few
storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
612 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW VIRGINIA HIGHLAND 33.78N  84.36W
08/01/2019                   FULTON             GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TREE FELL ACROSS ELKMONT RD NE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900607

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
623 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ004-012300-
Whitfield GA-
623 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WHITFIELD COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

At 623 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Mill Creek, or near
Dalton...moving northwest at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dalton, Rocky Face, Mill Creek, Dawnville and Tilton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3482 8487 3471 8490 3472 8492 3471 8494
      3469 8491 3467 8490 3468 8491 3468 8494
      3467 8493 3464 8492 3465 8504 3468 8505
      3472 8505 3472 8507 3480 8510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 145DEG 4KT 3470 8500

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
631 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ047-049-012300-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-
631 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND WALTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 630 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ebenezer, or 7 miles
southeast of Monroe...moving west at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Monroe, Madison, Social Circle, Rutledge, Bostwick, Good Hope,
Jersey, Ebenezer, Nicholasville, Hard Labor Creek State Park,
Pannell, Campton and Herndonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3391 8376 3389 8376 3390 8375 3386 8358
      3382 8353 3380 8348 3373 8345 3358 8346
      3360 8369 3362 8369 3364 8372 3365 8376
      3368 8381 3391 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 100DEG 6KT 3372 8362

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
644 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE DORAVILLE         33.89N  84.26W
08/01/2019                   DEKALB             GA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            A LARGE TREE WAS DOWNED ONTO THE ONRAMP FROM I-285 TO
            I-85.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900608

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ089-090-012315-
Chattahoochee GA-Muscogee GA-
651 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 651 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near North Fort Benning, or
near Cusseta...moving northwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cusseta, North Fort Benning, Fort Benning/lawson Army Air Fld,
Christopher, Sand Hill, Custer Road Terrace, Battle Park,
Eelbeck/West Fort Benning and Manta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3235 8500 3236 8498 3238 8498 3254 8468
      3252 8469 3252 8467 3246 8466 3242 8466
      3227 8472 3233 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 147DEG 8KT 3238 8480

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
651 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

GAZ004-005-012315-
Whitfield GA-Murray GA-
651 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WHITFIELD AND MURRAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 650 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Dawnville, or near
Chatsworth...moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dalton, Chatsworth, Eton, Crandall, Dawnville, Sumac, Ramhurst, Fort
Mountain State Park and North Georgia Speedway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3466 8485 3477 8494 3494 8481 3487 8468
      3468 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 233DEG 11KT 3478 8484

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH