Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
920 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

.UPDATE...

Made some adjustments to a quicker eastward progression of pops as
once again the dry slot has advected quicker than previous model
guidance around the south and east of the upper cutoff low. While
instability is limited in the south, there's enough of a helicity
rich environment to have some embedded bowing segments and
possible weak rotation along the main convective line tracking
with the associated sfc occluded front. Enough progression with
areas of precip to where the threat for flash flooding is no
longer widespread enough to warrant the watch so went ahead to
cancel, though isolated flooding and some river/creek flooding is
still possible. Should just be some lingering chances of isolated
to scattered light showers mainly in the north this afternoon on
the backside of the aforementioned main precip with the upper low
wraparound and some continued mostly cloudy conditions. Previous
discussion follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Current radar loop shows frontal boundary sweeping across AL and
about to push into western GA over the next few hours. Light to
moderate precip over the state right now but will see periods of
heavy rain move in as the actual front. With already soaked soils
and rivers and creeks near bankfull...the additional 1 to 2 inches
were expecting with this system will create some minor flooding
across the area through tonight. Have continued the Flood Watch
through 7pm tonight. This system is expected to exit the CWA later
this afternoon. We will still be dealing with some light rain
through early Saturday morning especially across N GA associated with
the wrap around moisture around the backside of the main low center.

As this front moves across the state today there is some minimal
instability across central GA. We could see some isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon so decided to keep them in the forecast.
No severe storms expected.

We will finally see some much needed drier conditions this weekend
with high temps in the 50s and 60s and lows mainly in the 30s and
40s.

01

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
The long term begins with a ridge of high pressure building over
the central U.S. This will bring dry and more stable air into the
CWA for a few days. Another weak but fast moving system will move
across the CWA late Monday and Monday night. The system will
weaken as it moves across the CWA, however it will have enough
moisture for another chance of showers. After Monday night, a
broad trough will dominate the eastern half of the nation with the
axis just off the east coast. This puts the CWA in a west
northwest flow bringing dry and stable conditions for the
remainder of the long term. Temperatures will be at or just above
normal through the long term.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

Ceilings are all over the map this morning but with heavy rain
beginning to move in should see ceilings level off in the IFR range
over the next few hours. VSBYs will do the same thing. Will see IFR
ceilings until this system sweeps through the TAF sites later this
afternoon. Ceilings will lift slowly this evening and stay in the
MVFR range through the end of the period. Winds are out of the E to
SE but will turn to the SW/W as the front moves through. wind speeds
expected to stay 10kt or less through 16-19z then will see increased
gust to 20kt behind the frontal passage through Saturday morning.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
Medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  42  58  39 / 100  20   0   0
Atlanta         64  41  56  41 /  70  10   0   0
Blairsville     57  37  52  35 / 100  40  20   0
Cartersville    62  40  55  37 /  50  20   0   0
Columbus        66  43  60  42 /  40  10   0   0
Gainesville     60  41  54  41 / 100  20   0   0
Macon           67  44  61  40 / 100  10   0   0
Rome            60  40  56  36 /  40  30   0   0
Peachtree City  64  41  58  39 /  70  10   0   0
Vidalia         69  45  61  42 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01/Baker
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
547 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
547 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Flash flooding remains possible across north and parts of central
Georgia today.

Moderate to heavy rain is expected across north and central
Georgia today, ending from the west. Some of this rain could
produce flash flooding. For more information, see the latest Flash
Flood Watch statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of flooding through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
906 AM EST FRI JAN 4 2019

GAZ071-072-082-041430-
Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-
906 AM EST FRI JAN 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE...NORTHERN
BIBB AND JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM EST...

At 905 AM EST...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Bolingbroke, moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...30 to 40 mph wind and enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...While winds should result in minor damage to tree limbs
           and blowing around of light, unsecured objects, this
           storm has also exhibited localized rotation. A brief
           tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Macon, Gray, Postell, James, Bradley, Bolingbroke, Wayside, Dames
Ferry, Round Oak, Greenberry Crossroads, Clinton, Jarrell Plantation,
Wesleyan and Arkwright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3298 8385 3316 8365 3309 8346 3291 8343
      3286 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1405Z 237DEG 23KT 3295 8376

WIND...50MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
921 AM EST FRI JAN 4 2019

GAZ083-084-095>097-105>109-041500-
Crisp GA-Wilkinson GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-Wilcox GA-Laurens GA-
Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
921 AM EST FRI JAN 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CRISP...SOUTHERN
WILKINSON...SOUTHEASTERN DOOLY...SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...WILCOX...
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...BLECKLEY...DODGE...SOUTHEASTERN TWIGGS AND
PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM EST...

At 919 AM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from
Tarversville to near Hawkinsville and Rochelle, moving northeast at
30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain will cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Cochran, Eastman, Hawkinsville, Abbeville, Chester, Rochelle, Dudley,
Pineview, Pitts, Danville, Montrose, Allentown, Union, Plainfield,
Mobley Crossing, Mock Springs, Seville, Finleyson, District Path and
Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3229 8361 3256 8348 3268 8329 3269 8306
      3223 8310 3185 8330 3185 8361 3180 8361
      3181 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 233DEG 27KT 3253 8343 3208 8347 3182 8361

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
936 AM EST FRI JAN 4 2019

GAZ060-072-073-083-084-041515-
Wilkinson GA-Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
936 AM EST FRI JAN 4 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKINSON...SOUTHERN
PUTNAM...BALDWIN...EASTERN JONES AND NORTHERN TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL
1015 AM EST...

At 934 AM EST...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
line of thunderstorms from near Gray to Griswoldville and Marion,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...30 to 40 mph wind and enhanced risk of brief tornadoes.

  IMPACT...While winds should result in minor damage to tree limbs
           and blowing around of light, unsecured objects, the
           leading edge of this line of storms has also exhibited
           areas of localized rotation. A brief tornado could
           quickly form.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Milledgeville, Gray, Irwinton, Gordon, Ivey, McIntyre,
Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Postell, Allenwood, Mountain Springs,
Griswoldville, Plant Harlee Branch, Hardwick, Browns Crossing, James,
Coopers, Haddock, Pancras and Fitzpatrick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3265 8349 3280 8351 3282 8349 3284 8351
      3302 8358 3329 8326 3326 8325 3319 8327
      3318 8322 3307 8319 3284 8314
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 228DEG 26KT 3301 8354 3286 8349 3268 8346

WIND...50MPH