Winter Weather Advisory 9, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
129 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will then cross the area late
tonight and Sunday with a period of snow. Lake enhancement may
bring some additional accumulation east and northeast of Lakes
Erie and Ontario. Another area of low pressure will cross the
eastern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday with snow and some
mixed precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this afternoon, radar shows lake effect snow has
diminished in intensity, especially east of Lake Erie where
direction wind shear has increased and disrupted what was a well
organized band just a few hours ago. There will be little, if
any, additional accumulation off Lake Erie for the remainder of
this afternoon. A small area of lake effect snow continues
across southern Jefferson County near the lakeshore, but this
will end by late afternoon due to increasing wind shear and
diminishing winds. Localized accumulation of 1-2 inches is
possible across southern Jefferson County this afternoon but due
to the diminished intensity all Winter Storm headlines were
dropped on the latest update.

Tonight a weak area of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley
to the western end of Lake Ontario. Weak warm advection ahead of
this system may bring a few scattered light snow showers to the
western Southern Tier this evening. A more widespread area of light
snow will develop across Western NY by late tonight. By
daybreak, there will be 1-3 inches of new snow across the
Niagara Frontier and the Western Southern Tier, with less than
an inch east of Batavia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Cold advection will begin by mid morning Sunday behind an area of
low pressure tracking from the north shore of Lake Ontario to the
Saint Lawrence Valley. A cold front trailing this area of low
pressure will sweep across the region during the morning on
Sunday. Widespread light snow will continue through the late
morning before transitioning to lake effect off of both lakes.
With the cold air advection, 850 temperatures will cool to near
-20C by the evening on Sunday. Synoptic moisture from the
departing low and cold front will decrease from west to east,
supporting some better lake snow potential off of Lake Ontario,
where advisory level snow amounts may be possible.

Off of Lake Erie, the best chance for lake snow will be
over the Western Southern Tier north to Wyoming and southern Erie
counties. Lake enhanced/effect should start out more north toward
the City of Buffalo and the Northtowns, but as winds shift from 240
degrees early in the morning to 260 degrees in the early afternoon
and then to 280 degrees by the evening, the band of lake effect snow
that does develop will drop south through the day. As this occurs,
snow that accumulates from the lake, will be fairly well spread out,
keeping any one location to around 3 to 5 inches, with these amounts
mostly across the higher terrain of the Western Southern Tier and
Southern Erie County. These amounts will be near advisory level, and
future updates will address the need for an advisory if it is
warranted. Lake effect off of Lake Erie will diminish in coverage
through the evening as the trough over the area tracks northeast.

Off of Lake Ontario, lake enhanced snow behind the departing cold
front and light synoptic snow will start in the early afternoon and
transition to lake effect by the mid to late afternoon. Initially a
west-southwest flow will start the lake effect over the northern
portion of the North Country. Winds shift more to a westerly (260-
280) direction and the longer fetch of the lake allows a better
developed lake band to form and focus on the Tug Hill during the
late afternoon and into the evening. Guidance is suggesting the
potential for a three lake connection with the Lake Ontario band,
with the connection extending upstream to Lake Huron and Lake
Superior. Winds will continue to shift through the evening to a more
northwest direction and then northerly by the middle of the night on
Sunday night. This will result in the band shifting south through
the early morning, and then dissipating with minimal fetch. Some
guidance is holding on to the band over the lake through the morning
via a convergence zone over the lake with the much colder airmass
over the lake, but winds appear to be a bit to strong to support
this. Area east of Lake Ontario, especially over the Tug Hill can
expect to receive up to 4 to 8 inches of snow for Sunday into Sunday
night.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 20s across the
area, except for areas of the Genesee Valley and Northern Finger
Lakes will daytime highs will approach 30 degrees. Sunday night lows
will be in the single digits from the Northern Finger Lakes
westward, and near or a few degrees below zero in the North Country.

Brief surface ridging through Monday morning will give way to the
next area of low pressure approaching the region. The warm front of
this approaching low will move north through the area during the
middle of the day on Monday bringing the chance for snow as it moves
through the area. The area of low pressure will trek northeast from
the southern Great Lakes on Monday afternoon to the Georgian Bay by
Tuesday morning. As this system approaches the region, precipitation
chances will start to increase through the evening and overnight on
Monday night. Likely POPs will cover most of the forecast area by
mid to late evening. Precipitation should be mostly snow, but if
stronger than anticipated advection occurs, resulting in warmer
temperatures, then a mix with or change over to rain may occur as
the night progresses.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the mid to upper 20s across
most of the area, the exception being across the North Country where
temperatures will be in the teens as warm air advection from the
warm front will start later. Lows on Monday night will not cool much
from daytime highs, with lows in the low to mid 20s across Western
NY and the Northern Finger Lakes. Temperatures will be in the low
teens across the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Behind this system, latest medium range models and ensembles
continuing to advertise a true arctic blast Wednesday into Friday.
850 mb temperatures nearing -30C will cover much of the area through
this time frame. Certainly record cold is a possibility within this
airmass. Daytime high temperatures only in the single digits with
overnight lows below zero. Brisk winds during this time frame will
certainly produce dangerously cold wind chills for an extended
period. Additionally, this airmass will certainly bring the
potential for lake effect snow downwind of the lakes, although with
an airmass this cold and dry it may limit really significant
accumulations. The greater concern may be the potential for
significant blowing and drifting with gusty winds and a fine,
powdery snow in this frigid airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow has tapered off considerably early this
afternoon. This will result in visibility restrictions of 1-3SM
at KART through mid-afternoon. Elsewhere will be mainly VFR,
outside of patchy light and disorganized snow showers. Expect
mainly VFR conditions between 21Z and 06Z Sunday with the areas
between two systems. After that, weak low pressure will move
across the area which will result in a period of IFR conditions.
Expect a 3-6 hour period with light snow and visibility around
1SM at most TAF sites with the possible exception of KROC where
snow will be lighter. After that, winds will shift and increase
behind an associated cold front from west to east from 15-18Z
Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Areas of IFR in light snow and some lake effect
snow east of the lakes.
Monday...A chance of snow showers. MVFR likely. LLWS possible
Monday night.
Tuesday...Snow and rain showers with areas of IFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Areas of IFR with lake effect snow and
blowing snow northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will continue to diminish this afternoon.
Conditions will improve which should allow the Small Craft
Advisory on the west end of Lake Ontario to be dropped late this
afternoon. Southwest winds will increase again by Sunday
morning and continue through Sunday night as a cold front
crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will bring the next round
of Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Northern Erie and
Niagara counties, specifically for the Upper Niagara River. The
Niagara River Control Center reports an ice jam on the river
near the North Grand Island Bridge. Since the watch was issued,
the water level has stabilized, but still remains high. The
current level is just under where inundation and damage begins,
but if the ice jam becomes worse flooding may develop along the
river. Areas susceptible include Grand Island, Cayuga Island in
Niagara Falls, and the river shoreline between North Tonawanda
and Niagara Falls.

There also is an ice jam on Buffalo Creek in Gardenville. This
ice jam likely formed due to the combination of small chunks of
ice in the creek and the heavy snow last night which caused
these to freeze in place near the gauge location. Although the
creek level is high right at the gauge location, this reading is
not representative for the creek as a whole. Flows are not high
and there has not been any flooding reported as a result of the
ice jam. The situation will be monitored, but with flows
falling during the next couple days, this jam is not expected to
result in flooding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NYZ001-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock/Apffel

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
916 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

NYZ006>008-261615-
Jefferson-Oswego-Lewis-
916 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...
WEST CENTRAL LEWIS AND NORTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 916 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of up to 2 inches per hour along a line extending from near Barnes
Corners to near Southwick Beach State Park.

Locations impacted include...
Sandy Island Beach State Park, Stony Point, Adams, Barnes Corners,
Southwick Beach State Park, Adams Center, Henderson, Rodman,
Lorraine, Sandy Creek, Lacona, Mannsville, Ellisburg, Worth, Montario
Point, Smartville, Bellwood, East Rodman, Belleville and Rector.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 37 and 43.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this band of lake effect snow.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
snow squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the
squall passes your location.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4366 7573 4358 7626 4369 7626 4378 7629
      4380 7632 4384 7633 4392 7580 4383 7559

Fries

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1039 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

NYZ019-020-085-261645-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
1039 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

...A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CATTARAUGUS...
SOUTHWESTERN ERIE AND NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...

At 1039 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of up to 2 inches per hour was located along a line extending from
near Eden to near Lake Erie State Park.

Locations impacted include...
Dunkirk, Fredonia, Eden, Silver Creek, Angola, North Collins, Lake
Erie State Park, Evangola State Park, SUNY Fredonia, Angola on the
Lake, Sheridan, Forestville, Farnham, Langford and Versailles.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 57A.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this band of lake effect snow.

Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
snow squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the
squall passes your location.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4244 7950 4248 7947 4253 7939 4254 7934
      4257 7927 4259 7920 4261 7917 4270 7890
      4264 7876 4253 7890 4240 7951

Fries

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1229 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             PERRYSBURG              42.46N  79.00W
01/26/2019  M14.9 INCH       CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900500

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1244 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     SNOW             5 SSW HARRISVILLE       44.09N  75.37W
01/26/2019  M13.0 INCH       LEWIS              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA        42.94N  78.72W
01/26/2019  M12.7 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             WALES                   42.74N  78.51W
01/26/2019  M7.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 E WILLIAMSVILLE       42.97N  78.69W
01/26/2019  M10.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 W BATAVIA             43.00N  78.21W
01/26/2019  M5.0 INCH        GENESEE            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 ESE WATERTOWN         43.97N  75.89W
01/26/2019  M19.0 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             1 W COLDEN              42.65N  78.71W
01/26/2019  M15.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             SILVER CREEK            42.53N  79.16W
01/26/2019  M8.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0745 AM     SNOW             2 WNW WEST SENECA       42.86N  78.79W
01/26/2019  M12.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 ENE COLDEN            42.65N  78.61W
01/26/2019  M12.2 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0830 AM     SNOW             2 NE BOSTON             42.65N  78.72W
01/26/2019  M11.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             2 SSE EAST AURORA       42.73N  78.61W
01/26/2019  M10.9 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900501
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900502
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900503
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900504
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900505
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900506
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900507
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900508
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900509
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900510
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900511
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900512

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             PAVILION 2              42.87N  77.99W
01/26/2019  M5.4 INCH        GENESEE            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900513

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
206 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             3 SE BUFFALO            42.86N  78.82W
01/26/2019  M13.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   SNOW SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900514

DPK