Gale Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

239 
WHUS71 KBUF 270244
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
944 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

LOZ063-271045-
/O.EXA.KBUF.GL.W.0002.190127T1200Z-190128T0000Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
944 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-064-065-271045-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.190127T1200Z-190128T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
944 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 13 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-271045-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.190127T1200Z-190127T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
944 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-271045-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.190127T1200Z-190127T2100Z/
Lower Niagara River-
944 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-271045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.190127T0900Z-190128T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
944 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-271045-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.190127T1200Z-190128T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
944 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO
7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

324 
WHUS71 KBUF 270809
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
309 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

LOZ044-045-063>065-271615-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.190127T1200Z-190128T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
309 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest to 35 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-271615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.190127T0900Z-190128T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
309 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-271615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.190127T1200Z-190128T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
309 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-271615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.190127T1200Z-190127T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
309 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...Southwest 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-271615-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.190127T1200Z-190127T2100Z/
Lower Niagara River-
309 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

361 
WHUS71 KBUF 271442
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
942 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

LOZ044-045-063>065-272245-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190128T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
942 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...11 to 15 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-272245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190128T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
942 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...5 to 8 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-272245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190128T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
942 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-272100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190127T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
942 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-272100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190127T2100Z/
Lower Niagara River-
942 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

585 
WHUS71 KBUF 272054
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
354 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

LOZ030-272200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190127T2100Z/
Lower Niagara River-
354 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.


$$

LOZ044-045-063>065-280000-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190128T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
354 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West to 35 knots.

* WAVES...10 to 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-280300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190128T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
354 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-280500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190128T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
354 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-280500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190128T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
354 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West to 30 knots.

* WAVES...7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

317 
WHUS71 KBUF 272335
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

LOZ044-045-280745-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190128T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190128T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
635 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Small Craft
Advisory, which is in effect until 4 AM EST Monday. The Gale
Warning has been cancelled.

* WINDS...Northwest 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...8 to 11 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-280045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190128T0000Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
635 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Gale
Warning.


$$

LEZ020-280045-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190128T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
635 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory.


$$

LEZ040-041-280745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190128T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
635 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 20 knots.

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-280745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190128T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
635 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WINDS...West 20 to 25 knots.

* WAVES...6 to 9 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 18 to 33 knots
and/or waves averaging 4 feet or more are expected to produce
hazardous wave conditions to small craft. Inexperienced
mariners...especially those operating smaller vessels...should
avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
453 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will cross the area late tonight and
Sunday with a period of snow. Lake enhancement may bring some
additional accumulation east and northeast of Lakes Erie and
Ontario. Another area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great
Lakes Monday night and Tuesday with snow and some mixed
precipitation. This will be followed by another round of bitterly
cold air which last through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Early this afternoon, radar shows lake effect snow has
diminished in intensity, especially east of Lake Erie where
directional wind shear has increased which has disrupted what was a
well organized band just a few hours ago. There will be little, if
any, additional accumulation off Lake Erie for the remainder of this
afternoon. A small area of lake effect snow continues near the
lakeshores of southern Jefferson County, but this will end by late
afternoon due to increasing wind shear and diminishing winds.
Localized accumulation of 1-2 inches is possible across southern
Jefferson County this afternoon but due to the diminished intensity
all Winter Storm headlines were dropped on the latest update.

Tonight a weak area of low pressure will move from the Ohio Valley
to the western end of Lake Ontario. Weak warm advection ahead of
this system may bring a few scattered light snow showers to the
western Southern Tier this evening.

A more widespread area of light snow will develop across Western NY
by late tonight, and spread eastward across the entire area Sunday
morning. It will still be cold enough ahead of this system for some
modest lake enhancement northeast of the lakes, followed by
orographic enhancement in the westerly flow behind the system. This
system will produce at least some snow in all areas, but amounts
will vary considerably based on location. For the Niagara Frontier
and Western Southern Tier expect a period of snow between 2 am and
10 am to drop 2-3 inches of snow. The Lower Genesee Valley and
western Finger Lakes will not benefit from lake or orographic
enhancement, with generally an inch or less of snow late tonight
into Sunday morning. The most snow will be east of Lake Ontario
where there will be steady snow Sunday with the low Sunday morning,
followed by a period of lake effect snow Sunday afternoon and early
evening. There will be some light lake effect snow east of Lake
Erie, but it will be more significant off Lake Ontario where there
is a longer fetch and moisture from Lake Huron. The forecast uses a
mesoscale guidance weighted blend of model guidance in order to
capture these features. Also, BUFKIT shows the best lift in a
favorable temperature range for dendritic snow growth, suggesting it
will be a rather fluffy snow with 15:1 ratios or greater.

Based on this, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for east of Lake
Ontario where an additional 4 to 8 inches of snow is expected from
both the low and the lake effect snow following the system. Snow
accumulation does not meet advisory criteria elsewhere, although it
may be close along the Chautauqua Ridge.

Otherwise, this system will usher in reinforcing shot of cold air
for Sunday. Highs will only be in the mid to upper 20s, and likely
occur in the morning followed by falling temperatures Sunday
afternoon. It will also be windy behind the low, with gusts 25 to 35
mph resulting in afternoon wind chills near zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold air settles into the area on Sunday night, when temperatures
away from the lakes should again challenge zero. This will occur as
west-southwest flow lake effect snow showers start to wind down with
high pressure bridging the New York-Pennsylvania state line. With
drier air and colder air moving in, inversion heights will fall, and
antecedent moisture will peel away as subsidence holds swap. Thus,
snow shower activity should likewise diminish, and radiational
cooling in clearing skies should prevail.

Warm advection ahead of the next system starts to increase into
Monday. This system has been a difficult one for the models to get a
decent handle on. Still, the consensus favors a track to our west and
north, placing us in the warm sector of the system for the majority
of its passage. Further, the consensus favors the in situ
development of the warm front to its east along the northern shore
of Lake Ontario. This would focus most pre-warm frontal snow ahead
of it to the north of the lake. We will remain better mixing with
far less lift until the trailing cold front arrives on Tuesday. This
will leave us with a fairly moist layer but little in the way of
lift. That said, some areas of light snow showers or rain will be
possible Monday night and Tuesday before colder air arrives. Model
QPFs have really reduced to match our synoptic position outside of
the North Country, so both precipitation wording and snow have been
minimized in the grids.

The same cannot be said for the North Country, where some
uncertainty remains in terms of how far eastward forcing for ascent
creeps from Lake Ontario's northern shore. Some decent forcing  will
remain in the environment ahead of the system, so a few inches of
snow was maintained.

Colder air arrives rapidly later on Tuesday with rapid cold
advection likely to result in snow shower development everywhere. As
increasingly gusts southwest flow develops Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and cold air allows for the profiles to favor a deep
dendritic growth environment, more efficient snows will be likely to
the northeast of the lakes as temperatures fall and profiles become
more unstable.

Temperatures during the period will rise up toward freezing by
Monday afternoon then straddle freezing in the lower elevations
through Tuesday. That will mean p-type may be an issue, however
with the cold advection behind the system, everyone shout see
some snow.

Increasingly unstably southwesterly flow follows the system into
midweek, which looks to result in much more unstable profiles and
additional gusty and snowy lake effect conditions beyond Tuesday as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...Severe winter conditons expected during this period...

While the exact details on potential lake effect snow accumulations
during this period still need to be worked out, predictability
remains very high on the outbreak of a significant intrusion of
arctic air and potential record cold during the mid to late week
period.

The polar low making its way down from central Canada will set up a
487 dm circulation at 500 mb centered near Lake Superior Wednesday
morning eventually rotating into Quebec Thursday and Friday. The
resulting low level thermal trough is shown by nearly all medium
range models to have 850 mb temperature down to near -30C
during the peak of the outbreak from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning. Record cold is certainly a possibility. Daytime
high temperatures only in the single digits with overnight lows
below zero. Brisk winds during this time frame will certainly
produce very dangerous wind chills for an extended period with
extreme winds chills of -20F to -40F.

As stated above, the finer details of the lake effect snow
impacts should come into better focus as we get closer. While
accumulating snow looks likely, a greater concern may be the
potential for significant blowing and drifting with gusty winds
and a fine, powdery snow in this frigid airmass.

Some moderation is expected Friday and especially Saturday as
the polar low retreats northward.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow has tapered off considerably early this
afternoon. This will result in visibility restrictions of 1-3SM
at KART through mid-afternoon. Elsewhere will be mainly VFR,
outside of patchy light and disorganized snow showers. Expect
mainly VFR conditions between 21Z and 06Z Sunday with the areas
between two systems. After that, weak low pressure will move
across the area which will result in a period of IFR conditions.
Expect a 3-6 hour period with light snow and visibility around
1SM at most TAF sites with the possible exception of KROC where
snow will be lighter. After that, winds will shift and increase
behind an associated cold front from west to east from 15-18Z
Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Areas of IFR in light snow and some lake effect
snow east of the lakes.
Monday...A chance of snow showers. MVFR likely. LLWS possible
Monday night.
Tuesday...Snow and rain showers with areas of IFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Areas of IFR with lake effect snow and
blowing snow northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will continue to diminish this afternoon, which
allows the current Small Craft headlines to be dropped. However,
SSW winds will increase in advance of the next system, followed by a
brisk westerly flow behind the low and associated cold front on
Sunday. Based on this, we have issued another round of Small Craft
advisories for Lake Erie and Ontario. Winds will then diminish late
Sunday night into Monday as weak high pressure moves across the
lower Great Lakes.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Northern Erie and
Niagara counties, specifically for the Upper Niagara River.

As of 430 pm, the Ontario River Control Center reports that
water levels, although remaining high have lowered slightly and
have stabilized. An ice jam remains in place on the river near
the North Grand Island Bridge. The current water level remains
just under where inundation and damage begins, but if the ice
jam becomes worse flooding may develop along the river. Areas
susceptible include Grand Island, Cayuga Island in Niagara
Falls, and the river shoreline between North Tonawanda and
Niagara Falls.

There also is an ice jam on Buffalo Creek in Gardenville. This
ice jam likely formed due to the combination of small chunks of
ice in the creek and the heavy snow last night which caused
these to freeze in place near the gauge location. Although the
creek level is high right at the gauge location, this reading is
not representative for the creek as a whole. Flows are not high
and there has not been any flooding reported as a result of the
ice jam. The situation will be monitored, but with flows
falling during the next couple days, this jam is not expected to
result in flooding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 PM EST Sunday for
     NYZ006>008.
     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NYZ001-010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST
         Monday for LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday
         for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Fries
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...Hitchcock/Apffel/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
242 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

NYZ011-012-019-020-085-271945-
Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
242 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

An area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. This system may bring some light snow and mixed
precipitation to the region.

An extended period of severe winter conditons is expected Tuesday
night through Friday. Extremely cold air will build down into the
region with dangerously cold wind chills expected during this
period. Accumulating, possibly significant lake effect snow is
possible east of Lake Erie during this period. Strong gusty winds
will likely cause periods of significant blowing and drifting snow
along with poor visibility.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-271945-
Northern Erie-
242 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

An area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. This system may bring some light snow and mixed
precipitation to the region.

An extended period of severe winter conditons is expected Tuesday
night through Friday. Extremely cold air will build down into the
region with dangerously cold wind chills expected during this
period. Accumulating, possibly significant lake effect snow is
possible east of Lake Erie during this period. Strong gusty winds
will likely cause periods of significant blowing and drifting snow
along with poor visibility.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002>005-013-014-021-271945-
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
242 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

An area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. This system may bring some light snow and mixed
precipitation to the region.

Extremely cold air will build down into Tuesday night through Friday
with dangerously cold wind chills expected during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-271945-
Niagara-
242 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

An area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. This system may bring some light snow and mixed
precipitation to the region.

Extremely cold air will build down into Tuesday night through Friday
with dangerously cold wind chills expected during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-271945-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
242 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

An area of low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. This system may bring some light snow and mixed
precipitation to the region.

An extended period of severe winter conditons is expected Tuesday
night through Friday. Extremely cold air will build down into the
region with dangerously cold wind chills expected during this
period. Accumulating, possibly significant lake effect snow is
possible east of Lake Ontario during this period. Strong gusty winds
will likely cause periods of significant blowing and drifting snow
along with poor visibility.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-271945-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
242 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-271945-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
242 PM EST Sat Jan 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1244 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     SNOW             5 SSW HARRISVILLE       44.09N  75.37W
01/26/2019  M13.0 INCH       LEWIS              NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 NE CHEEKTOWAGA        42.94N  78.72W
01/26/2019  M12.7 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             WALES                   42.74N  78.51W
01/26/2019  M7.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 E WILLIAMSVILLE       42.97N  78.69W
01/26/2019  M10.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 W BATAVIA             43.00N  78.21W
01/26/2019  M5.0 INCH        GENESEE            NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 ESE WATERTOWN         43.97N  75.89W
01/26/2019  M19.0 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             1 W COLDEN              42.65N  78.71W
01/26/2019  M15.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             SILVER CREEK            42.53N  79.16W
01/26/2019  M8.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0745 AM     SNOW             2 WNW WEST SENECA       42.86N  78.79W
01/26/2019  M12.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             2 ENE COLDEN            42.65N  78.61W
01/26/2019  M12.2 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0830 AM     SNOW             2 NE BOSTON             42.65N  78.72W
01/26/2019  M11.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

0900 AM     SNOW             2 SSE EAST AURORA       42.73N  78.61W
01/26/2019  M10.9 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900501
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900502
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900503
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900504
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900505
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900506
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900507
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900508
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900509
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900510
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900511
EVENT NUMBER BUF1900512

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             PAVILION 2              42.87N  77.99W
01/26/2019  M5.4 INCH        GENESEE            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900513

DPK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
206 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             3 SE BUFFALO            42.86N  78.82W
01/26/2019  M13.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   SNOW SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER BUF1900514

DPK