Tornado Warning 47, NWS Birmingham, AL

486 
WWUS54 KBMX 140717
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
217 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC007-125-140800-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-190414T0800Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-Bibb AL-
217 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA AND NORTHWESTERN BIBB COUNTIES...
    
At 217 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Low Gap, or 11 miles northwest of Brent, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Woodstock, West Blocton,
Tannehill Ironworks State Park, Abernant, Low Gap, Mercedes Benz Of
Alabama, North Bibb, Bucksville, Hagler, Green Pond, Pearson, Caffee
Junction, Harmon, I 20 Rest Area Near Tuscaloosa and Cedar Cove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 8723 3337 8722 3334 8718 3332 8718
      3332 8716 3331 8716 3331 8713 3329 8712
      3329 8709 3328 8709 3328 8707 3325 8706
      3325 8703 3322 8703 3295 8732 3294 8740
      3300 8742 3300 8745
TIME...MOT...LOC 0717Z 212DEG 42KT 3302 8734 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

32/Davis

213 
WWUS54 KBMX 140722
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
222 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC007-125-140800-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-190414T0800Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-Bibb AL-
222 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA AND NORTHWESTERN BIBB COUNTIES...
        
At 222 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Low Gap, or 12
miles northwest of Brent, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Woodstock, Tannehill Ironworks
State Park, Abernant, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, North Bibb,
Bucksville, Hagler, Green Pond, Pearson, Caffee Junction, I 20 Rest
Area Near Tuscaloosa and Cedar Cove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 8723 3337 8722 3334 8718 3332 8718
      3332 8716 3331 8716 3331 8713 3329 8712
      3329 8709 3328 8709 3328 8707 3325 8706
      3323 8706 3300 8731 3300 8735 3301 8739
      3303 8742
TIME...MOT...LOC 0722Z 210DEG 37KT 3304 8734 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

32/Davis

450 
WWUS54 KBMX 140731
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
231 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC007-125-140800-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-190414T0800Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-Bibb AL-
231 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA AND NORTHWESTERN BIBB COUNTIES...
        
At 230 AM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Coaling, or 14
miles southeast of Holt, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Lake View, Brookwood, Coaling, Vance, Woodstock, Tannehill Ironworks
State Park, Abernant, Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, North Bibb,
Bucksville, Green Pond, Caffee Junction, I 20 Rest Area Near
Tuscaloosa and Cedar Cove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 8723 3337 8722 3334 8718 3332 8718
      3332 8716 3331 8716 3331 8713 3329 8712
      3329 8709 3328 8709 3328 8707 3325 8706
      3306 8730 3310 8738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 203DEG 38KT 3312 8731 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

32/Davis

210 
WWUS54 KBMX 140742
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
242 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC007-140752-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-190414T0800Z/
Bibb AL-
242 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BIBB COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for central and
west central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3337 8723 3337 8722 3334 8718 3332 8718
      3332 8716 3331 8716 3318 8724 3324 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 203DEG 38KT 3323 8725 

$$

ALC125-140800-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-190414T0800Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-
242 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY...
    
At 242 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Mercedes Benz Of Alabama, or 14 miles east of Holt,
moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Vance and Abernant. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 8723 3337 8722 3334 8718 3332 8718
      3332 8716 3331 8716 3318 8724 3324 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 203DEG 38KT 3323 8725 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

32/Davis

076 
WWUS54 KBMX 140746
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
246 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC125-140756-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-190414T0800Z/
Tuscaloosa AL-
246 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for central and
west central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3337 8723 3337 8722 3334 8718 3332 8718
      3332 8716 3331 8716 3318 8724 3324 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 0744Z 212DEG 42KT 3327 8722 

$$

32/Davis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Sunday.

Temperatures have warmed quickly this afternoon as a rain cooled
boundary lifts northward. Temperatures ranged from a rather cool
lower 60s across the northwest counties to balmy middle 80s across
our southern counties. The warm and more humid air mass will
continue to lift northward this evening as a deepening surface
low tracks northeast along the Mississippi River. Gradient winds
will increase quickly this evening for areas west of I-65 as the
aforementioned surface low moves closer to Alabama. Expect
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. There will
be a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main squall line,
but nothing severe expected. However, the may be some discrete
cells just ahead of the main squall line. We are keeping the 1 am
CDT start time for severe weather in the far western counties, but
some discrete cells may occur as early as midnight. This system
has all the ingredients for severe storms, including long track
strong tornadoes. The line of severe storms will track eastward
fairly quickly, and the storms will likely exit east Alabama by
late morning. There will be a sharp cut-off in the rain behind the
main convective line, so there will be a break in the precipitation
for several hours before some wrap around showers move into the
area on Sunday. The actual cold front will move across the area
during the day Sunday, which will trigger additional showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms. Surface winds will continue to be
brisk with speeds 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Sunday evening through Monday night.

The amplified trough associated with the active & severe weather
Sunday morning will be moving eastward over Central Alabama
overnight. Cold air advection at the surface and low-levels will
accompany this with improving conditions across the area as a stable
airmass moves into the Southeast. As such, PoPs will be trending
downward and will likely favor the east and northeast portions of
the area towards midnight. A lingering thunderstorm can't be ruled
out but the severe threat will end as frontal passage occurs to the
east & southeast. By Monday morning, there are no mentionable rain
chances with high pressure conditions moving into the area from the
west. Temperatures in the 40s are expected Monday morning with
northwesterly winds at 5-10 kts & gusts ~20 kts. Abundant afternoon
sunshine will help rebound temperatures into the 60s and 70s before
dropping back into the 40s overnight Monday under clear skies.

Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stable high pressure conditions should prevail across the Southeast
CONUS Tue/Wed with a dry airmass to boot. Broad deep-layer ridging
will begin to develop across the center of the country as high
pressure slides east towards the Carolinas. This suggests return
flow spreading across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley (MRV)
by Wednesday evening. Lows overnight Tuesday are forecast in the
50s, though 50s/60s should suit Wednesday night quite well once
southerly flow develops across our area and cloud cover increases.
For Wednesday evening, enough moisture return and isentropic
ascent will help increase rain chances in our western counties,
but have limited this to 20-30% for now. It appears most of the
showers and thunderstorms will stay to our west. Farther upstream
our next progged disturbance will be ejecting from the
Central/Southern Rockies into the Great Plains.

Thursday and Friday.

Trends in guidance have been relatively suggestive that the next
disturbance will create impacts for Central Alabama in the Thu/Fri
timeframe, but to what extent and exact timing still remains
unclear. There is good forecast confidence that the deep-layer
trough will amplify/close-off on Thursday whilst southwest flow
aloft develops over the Gulf Coast States. This resultantly
positions much of the lower MRV and Southeast CONUS into a maritime
tropical airmass with afternoon destabilization capable of producing
upwards of ~2,000+ MLCAPE, with 40-50 kts bulk shear. Varying
scenarios of how lee cyclogenesis evolves across the Plains will
dictate the timing/forward progress of the trailing cold front, thus
leaves aforementioned uncertainty of when thunderstorms & impactful
weather moves into Central Alabama.

However, it does appear that the synoptic configuration would favor
enough confidence to mention the chance of severe weather in the HWO
given the consistent synoptic scale signal the past few days, though
cannot produce clear details of what will happen this far out. With
favorable warm sector instability, associated shear profiles, and
deep-layer forcing, all modes of severe weather are on the table at
this time. Thus, best course of action for now is to start the
awareness building process and refine forecast in future updates.
Current solutions would suggest an area of low pressure to develop
near CO/KS/NE and exhibit ENE trajectory. Forward progress of the
low would place a trailing frontal boundary to our northwest
Thursday afternoon with a parameter space capable of producing
severe thunderstorms & tornadoes. Trends for this upcoming threat
will be monitored and updates to the forecast will be sent
accordingly.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across Central
Alabama tonight into the morning hours. Even outside of
convection, gradient winds will be very strong with sustained of
12-25 kts and gusts of 25-35 kts roughly. Have tried to time
storms and wind shifts behind the line for today. MVFR mainly
expected ahead of and behind convection.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Surface winds will increase overnight with sustained speeds of 15
to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph, especially over west Alabama and
higher elevations. A line of strong to severe storms will move
across central Alabama later tonight and into Sunday morning. This
system will produce periods of heavy rainfall and possibly
damaging winds, with the threat of tornadoes. The main convective
line will exit east Alabama by late Sunday morning, but moisture
on the back side of the system will trigger additional showers
Sunday afternoon. Expect brisk winds to continue throughout the
day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  41  67  44  77 /  80  30   0   0   0
Anniston    76  42  68  44  78 /  90  30   0   0   0
Birmingham  74  43  70  48  79 /  60  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  42  72  48  79 /  30  10   0   0   0
Calera      74  43  69  47  78 /  60  10   0   0   0
Auburn      77  45  68  47  76 / 100  30   0   0   0
Montgomery  79  45  72  47  80 /  90  10   0   0   0
Troy        79  45  71  48  79 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-150830-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to spread eastward across much of
Central Alabama through the late night hours. Tornadoes, some of
which could be strong, and damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible.

Outside of thunderstorms, sustained gradient winds of 15 to 30 mph,
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible through noontime
Sunday across the southeast half of Central Alabama. Tornadoes and
damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible.

Outside of thunderstorms, sustained gradient winds of 15 to 30 mph,
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible through 9PM Sunday night.

Minor flooding will be possible along the Tombigbee River basin
starting Sunday and remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across all of Central
Alabama. Tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and quarter size
hail are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
tonight through midday Sunday. Activation may be needed again on
Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALZ011>013-140645-
Fayette AL-Marion AL-Lamar AL-
100 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND
CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hackleburg to near Detroit to near Vernon.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Winfield, Haleyville, Vernon, Sulligent, Guin, Hackleburg,
Brilliant, Glen Allen, Beaverton, Gu-
Win, Weston, Bluff, Blooming Grove, Lamar County Airport, Brinn, Lake
Buttahatchee, Crews, Bear Creek and Twin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8816 3431 8797 3431 8764 3418 8763
      3387 8764 3387 8762 3384 8763 3362 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 239DEG 35KT 3428 8788 3402 8809 3369 8816

32/Davis