Tornado Warning 46, NWS Birmingham, AL

179 
WWUS54 KBMX 140619
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
119 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC065-105-140715-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-190414T0715Z/
Perry AL-Hale AL-
119 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PERRY AND SOUTHEASTERN HALE COUNTIES...
    
At 118 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Demopolis, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Newbern, Arcola, Heiberger, Greensboro Municipal Airport,
Morgan Springs, Gallion, Wateroak, Cedarville, Laneville, Folsom and
Ellards.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8744 3294 8742 3288 8742 3287 8732
      3283 8732 3283 8713 3248 8763 3248 8772
      3252 8773 3253 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 220DEG 44KT 3247 8778 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

87/GRANTHAM

029 
WWUS54 KBMX 140629
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
129 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC065-105-140715-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-190414T0715Z/
Perry AL-Hale AL-
129 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PERRY AND SOUTHEASTERN HALE COUNTIES...
    
At 129 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Arcola, or 7 miles east of Demopolis, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Newbern, Arcola, Heiberger, Greensboro Municipal Airport,
Morgan Springs, Gallion, Wateroak, Cedarville, Laneville, Folsom and
Ellards.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8744 3294 8742 3288 8742 3287 8732
      3283 8732 3283 8713 3248 8763 3248 8772
      3252 8773 3253 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0629Z 218DEG 38KT 3256 8771 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

87/GRANTHAM

639 
WWUS54 KBMX 140642
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
142 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC065-105-140715-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-190414T0715Z/
Perry AL-Hale AL-
142 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PERRY AND EAST CENTRAL HALE COUNTIES...
    
At 142 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Greensboro, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Greensboro Municipal Airport, Morgan Springs and
Wateroak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3262 8758 3267 8768 3295 8744 3294 8742
      3288 8742 3287 8732 3283 8732 3283 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 0642Z 217DEG 38KT 3267 8761 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

87/GRANTHAM

473 
WWUS54 KBMX 140650
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
150 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC065-105-140715-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-190414T0715Z/
Perry AL-Hale AL-
150 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PERRY AND EAST CENTRAL HALE COUNTIES...
    
At 150 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Greensboro, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Morgan Springs and Wateroak. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3266 8753 3272 8763 3295 8744 3294 8742
      3288 8742 3287 8732 3283 8732 3283 8730
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 221DEG 40KT 3274 8753 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

87/GRANTHAM

864 
WWUS54 KBMX 140701
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
201 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC065-105-140715-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0046.000000T0000Z-190414T0715Z/
Perry AL-Hale AL-
201 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PERRY AND EAST CENTRAL HALE COUNTIES...
    
At 201 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Mertz, or 13 miles northeast of Greensboro, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Wateroak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8743 3282 8754 3295 8744 3294 8742
      3288 8742 3287 8732
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 213DEG 40KT 3286 8747 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

87/GRANTHAM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Sunday.

Temperatures have warmed quickly this afternoon as a rain cooled
boundary lifts northward. Temperatures ranged from a rather cool
lower 60s across the northwest counties to balmy middle 80s across
our southern counties. The warm and more humid air mass will
continue to lift northward this evening as a deepening surface
low tracks northeast along the Mississippi River. Gradient winds
will increase quickly this evening for areas west of I-65 as the
aforementioned surface low moves closer to Alabama. Expect
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. There will
be a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main squall line,
but nothing severe expected. However, the may be some discrete
cells just ahead of the main squall line. We are keeping the 1 am
CDT start time for severe weather in the far western counties, but
some discrete cells may occur as early as midnight. This system
has all the ingredients for severe storms, including long track
strong tornadoes. The line of severe storms will track eastward
fairly quickly, and the storms will likely exit east Alabama by
late morning. There will be a sharp cut-off in the rain behind the
main convective line, so there will be a break in the precipitation
for several hours before some wrap around showers move into the
area on Sunday. The actual cold front will move across the area
during the day Sunday, which will trigger additional showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms. Surface winds will continue to be
brisk with speeds 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Sunday evening through Monday night.

The amplified trough associated with the active & severe weather
Sunday morning will be moving eastward over Central Alabama
overnight. Cold air advection at the surface and low-levels will
accompany this with improving conditions across the area as a stable
airmass moves into the Southeast. As such, PoPs will be trending
downward and will likely favor the east and northeast portions of
the area towards midnight. A lingering thunderstorm can't be ruled
out but the severe threat will end as frontal passage occurs to the
east & southeast. By Monday morning, there are no mentionable rain
chances with high pressure conditions moving into the area from the
west. Temperatures in the 40s are expected Monday morning with
northwesterly winds at 5-10 kts & gusts ~20 kts. Abundant afternoon
sunshine will help rebound temperatures into the 60s and 70s before
dropping back into the 40s overnight Monday under clear skies.

Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stable high pressure conditions should prevail across the Southeast
CONUS Tue/Wed with a dry airmass to boot. Broad deep-layer ridging
will begin to develop across the center of the country as high
pressure slides east towards the Carolinas. This suggests return
flow spreading across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley (MRV)
by Wednesday evening. Lows overnight Tuesday are forecast in the
50s, though 50s/60s should suit Wednesday night quite well once
southerly flow develops across our area and cloud cover increases.
For Wednesday evening, enough moisture return and isentropic
ascent will help increase rain chances in our western counties,
but have limited this to 20-30% for now. It appears most of the
showers and thunderstorms will stay to our west. Farther upstream
our next progged disturbance will be ejecting from the
Central/Southern Rockies into the Great Plains.

Thursday and Friday.

Trends in guidance have been relatively suggestive that the next
disturbance will create impacts for Central Alabama in the Thu/Fri
timeframe, but to what extent and exact timing still remains
unclear. There is good forecast confidence that the deep-layer
trough will amplify/close-off on Thursday whilst southwest flow
aloft develops over the Gulf Coast States. This resultantly
positions much of the lower MRV and Southeast CONUS into a maritime
tropical airmass with afternoon destabilization capable of producing
upwards of ~2,000+ MLCAPE, with 40-50 kts bulk shear. Varying
scenarios of how lee cyclogenesis evolves across the Plains will
dictate the timing/forward progress of the trailing cold front, thus
leaves aforementioned uncertainty of when thunderstorms & impactful
weather moves into Central Alabama.

However, it does appear that the synoptic configuration would favor
enough confidence to mention the chance of severe weather in the HWO
given the consistent synoptic scale signal the past few days, though
cannot produce clear details of what will happen this far out. With
favorable warm sector instability, associated shear profiles, and
deep-layer forcing, all modes of severe weather are on the table at
this time. Thus, best course of action for now is to start the
awareness building process and refine forecast in future updates.
Current solutions would suggest an area of low pressure to develop
near CO/KS/NE and exhibit ENE trajectory. Forward progress of the
low would place a trailing frontal boundary to our northwest
Thursday afternoon with a parameter space capable of producing
severe thunderstorms & tornadoes. Trends for this upcoming threat
will be monitored and updates to the forecast will be sent
accordingly.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across Central
Alabama tonight into the morning hours. Even outside of
convection, gradient winds will be very strong with sustained of
12-25 kts and gusts of 25-35 kts roughly. Have tried to time
storms and wind shifts behind the line for today. MVFR mainly
expected ahead of and behind convection.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Surface winds will increase overnight with sustained speeds of 15
to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph, especially over west Alabama and
higher elevations. A line of strong to severe storms will move
across central Alabama later tonight and into Sunday morning. This
system will produce periods of heavy rainfall and possibly
damaging winds, with the threat of tornadoes. The main convective
line will exit east Alabama by late Sunday morning, but moisture
on the back side of the system will trigger additional showers
Sunday afternoon. Expect brisk winds to continue throughout the
day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  41  67  44  77 /  80  30   0   0   0
Anniston    76  42  68  44  78 /  90  30   0   0   0
Birmingham  74  43  70  48  79 /  60  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  42  72  48  79 /  30  10   0   0   0
Calera      74  43  69  47  78 /  60  10   0   0   0
Auburn      77  45  68  47  76 / 100  30   0   0   0
Montgomery  79  45  72  47  80 /  90  10   0   0   0
Troy        79  45  71  48  79 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-150830-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to spread eastward across much of
Central Alabama through the late night hours. Tornadoes, some of
which could be strong, and damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible.

Outside of thunderstorms, sustained gradient winds of 15 to 30 mph,
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible through noontime
Sunday across the southeast half of Central Alabama. Tornadoes and
damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible.

Outside of thunderstorms, sustained gradient winds of 15 to 30 mph,
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible through 9PM Sunday night.

Minor flooding will be possible along the Tombigbee River basin
starting Sunday and remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across all of Central
Alabama. Tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and quarter size
hail are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
tonight through midday Sunday. Activation may be needed again on
Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
743 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

ALZ017-024-026-140115-
Jefferson AL-St. Clair AL-Blount AL-
743 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BLOUNT...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

At 742 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Moody, moving north at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trussville, Leeds, Moody, Oneonta, Springville, Odenville, Cleveland,
Center Point, Clay, Pinson, Margaret, Argo, Ashville, Locust Fork,
Allgood, Fairview, Nectar, Chalkville, Bald Rock and Grayson Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Birmingham.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 8636 3394 8637 3394 8633 3395 8632
      3394 8626 3356 8643 3355 8665 3398 8665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 191DEG 43KT 3362 8653

40/Sizemore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALZ011>013-140645-
Fayette AL-Marion AL-Lamar AL-
100 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND
CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hackleburg to near Detroit to near Vernon.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Winfield, Haleyville, Vernon, Sulligent, Guin, Hackleburg,
Brilliant, Glen Allen, Beaverton, Gu-
Win, Weston, Bluff, Blooming Grove, Lamar County Airport, Brinn, Lake
Buttahatchee, Crews, Bear Creek and Twin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8816 3431 8797 3431 8764 3418 8763
      3387 8764 3387 8762 3384 8763 3362 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 239DEG 35KT 3428 8788 3402 8809 3369 8816

32/Davis