Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
421 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

* Enhanced Risk for severe weather including tornadoes and
  damaging winds up to 60 mph continues this morning.

Severe risk will continue eastward across Central Alabama this
morning. Overnight a line of severe thunderstorms tracked across the
forecast area with tornadic characteristics. This convective line
was crossing the I-65 corridor at ~4 AM CDT. With a tornadic
parameter space still in place across Central Alabama, counties
across the east and southeast have been added to Tornado Watch #57
as the threat is not expected to diminish completely until the MCS
clears to the southeast later this morning.

An axis of 500-1,000 J/kg SBCAPE has overlapped an area of high wind
shear as a result of strong low-level & mid-level jets. 0-1 km SRH
values have ranged as high as 500-600 m2/s2 across the north, down
to ~300 m2/s2 across the south. Given ongoing deep-layer forcing and
ample low-level moisture actively replenished by the 925-850 mb jet,
the MCS will continue severe/tornadic characteristics for the next
several hours. A transition to line-embedded supercells with rapid
spin-up tornadoes has occurred this morning. This is a dangerous
ongoing situation across Central Alabama with many confirmed
tornadoes already.

With the deepening low, ~998 mb in western TN as of 4 AM,
pressure gradient winds have also been a problem overnight with a
few reports of downed trees across the area. Many surface
observation sites have gusted to 30-40 mph overnight which have
also caused aviation weather issues. A Wind Advisory will remain
in place 9 PM tonight or until wind gusts decline to the east as
the dynamic system moves out of the area and the PGF weakens.

Post-frontal weather conditions across Central Alabama should
contain noticable changes in wind direction and temperatures,
especially once the primary tough axis moves over the area. A line
of showers & storms may fire back up along the remnant frontal
boundary across our far east/southeast, though not expecting any
severe currently. Trends for this will be watched, however. Highs
this afternoon will range in the uppers 60s northwest, to the upper
70s in the southeast. Once skies clear and subsidence takes over in
the NVA/CAA regime, temperatures should cool to the 40s overnight.
May squeak out a few upper 30s in the far northwest as well. PoP
trends will continue to be adjusted in the coming hours which will
primarily be based off RADAR trends & hi-res guidance.

40/Sizemore

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Wednesday.

Stable high pressure conditions are expected to dominate the
Southeast CONUS into mid-week as broad deep-layer ridging begins to
develop across the center of the country in response to high
pressure sliding east towards the Carolinas & East Coast. Noticable
return flow spreading across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley
(MRV) by Wednesday evening. Lows overnight Monday should remain in
the 40s with the center of the surface ridge passing across the
area. Highs expected to rebound into the 60s/70s that afternoon.
Tuesday lows should warm into the 50s, with further airmass
modification/southerly flow bringing 60s into the picture Wednesday
night. For Wednesday evening, enough moisture return and isentropic
ascent will help increase rain chances in our western counties, but
have limited this to 10-20% as most of the showers and thunderstorms
will stay to our west. Upstream, our next progged mid/upper-level
disturbance is forecast to eject from the Central/Southern Rockies
into the Great Plains.

Thursday through Saturday.

Have continued to monitor trends with the consistent synoptic signal
of severe weather heading into Thursday. Good forecast confidence
remains with the deep-layer trough amplifying & thereafter occluding
on Thursday across the Great Plains with guidance suggesting a ~545
decameter mid-level low near northeast Kansas Thursday morning. As a
result, ongoing downstream ridging & southwest flow aloft develops
over the Gulf Coast States. Warm, moist advection across the Lower
MRV and Southeast suggests an unstable boundary layer with ~2,000+
MLCAPE during the afternoon, along with 40-50+ kts 0-6 km bulk
shear. Latest guidance suggests lee cyclogenesis across the Plains
with a deepening surface low heading northeastward into IL by Friday
morning. To the south, a trailing frontal boundary and 90-100kt H5
jet max should move into the Lower MRV by Thursday afternoon.
Considering indications of favorable warm sector instability,
associated shear profiles & broad hodograph curvature, all modes of
severe weather remain on the table. Will continue to advertise the
low-medium confidence for severe weather in the HWO. As always,
trends will be actively monitored with necessary forecast updates
passed along. Weather conditions Friday/Saturday would generally
show improvement as expected NVA/CAA spreads across the region
behind the exiting system.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across Central
Alabama tonight into the morning hours. Even outside of
convection, gradient winds will be very strong with sustained of
12-25 kts and gusts of 25-35 kts roughly. Have tried to time
storms and wind shifts behind the line for today. MVFR mainly
expected ahead of and behind convection.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A line of strong to severe storms continues to move across Central
Alabama this morning. This system will produce periods of heavy
rainfall and possibly damaging winds, with the threat of tornadoes.
The main convective line will exit east Alabama by late Sunday
morning, but moisture on the back side of the system may trigger
additional showers this afternoon. Expect brisk winds to continue
throughout this morning and into the overnight period as pressure
gradients remain high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     76  40  67  43  78 /  80  30   0   0   0
Anniston    77  42  68  45  79 /  90  30   0   0   0
Birmingham  75  43  71  48  79 /  60  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  73  41  72  48  79 /  30  10   0   0   0
Calera      74  42  69  47  78 /  60  10   0   0   0
Auburn      78  44  68  47  77 / 100  30   0   0   0
Montgomery  79  45  71  48  80 /  90  10   0   0   0
Troy        79  45  71  47  79 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-150830-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to spread eastward across much of
Central Alabama through the late night hours. Tornadoes, some of
which could be strong, and damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible.

Outside of thunderstorms, sustained gradient winds of 15 to 30 mph,
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible through noontime
Sunday across the southeast half of Central Alabama. Tornadoes and
damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible.

Outside of thunderstorms, sustained gradient winds of 15 to 30 mph,
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible through 9PM Sunday night.

Minor flooding will be possible along the Tombigbee River basin
starting Sunday and remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across all of Central
Alabama. Tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and quarter size
hail are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
tonight through midday Sunday. Activation may be needed again on
Thursday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
210 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CEDARVILLE              32.61N 87.67W
04/14/2019                   HALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROAD AT HIGHWAY 69 AND
            COUNTY ROAD 16.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
250 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 AM     TORNADO          HAGLER                  33.03N 87.34W
04/14/2019                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR HAGLER VFD.
            POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
259 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW MERCEDES-BENZ US  33.15N 87.27W
04/14/2019                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON WIRE RD BETWEEN VANCE AND
            COALING.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE CORONA            33.70N 87.44W
04/14/2019                   WALKER             AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 18 NEAR PATTON HILL
            RD, IN OAKMAN, FROM GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF
            CONVECTION. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE GALLION            32.51N 87.70W
04/14/2019                   HALE               AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO A BARN ON
            GALLION RD. DAMAGE ALSO CONFIRMED BY
            SPOTTER.

&&

HA

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