Tornado Warning 53, NWS Birmingham, AL

320 
WWUS54 KBMX 140930
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
430 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC117-141000-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0053.000000T0000Z-190414T1000Z/
Shelby AL-
430 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY...
    
At 430 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Columbiana, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Chelsea, Columbiana, Wilsonville, Harpersville, Westover, Beeswax
Creek Park, Gaston Steam Plant and Bounds Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 8640 3328 8643 3326 8642 3325 8643
      3324 8646 3322 8647 3320 8646 3320 8649
      3318 8650 3317 8649 3312 8667 3315 8670
      3320 8674 3341 8655
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 226DEG 29KT 3320 8665 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

32/Davis

230 
WWUS54 KBMX 140934
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
434 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALC117-140944-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0053.000000T0000Z-190414T1000Z/
Shelby AL-
434 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for central
Alabama. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
east central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3327 8640 3328 8643 3326 8642 3325 8643
      3324 8646 3322 8647 3320 8646 3320 8649
      3318 8650 3317 8649 3312 8667 3315 8670
      3320 8674 3341 8655
TIME...MOT...LOC 0932Z 226DEG 29KT 3322 8662 

$$

32/Davis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Sunday.

Temperatures have warmed quickly this afternoon as a rain cooled
boundary lifts northward. Temperatures ranged from a rather cool
lower 60s across the northwest counties to balmy middle 80s across
our southern counties. The warm and more humid air mass will
continue to lift northward this evening as a deepening surface
low tracks northeast along the Mississippi River. Gradient winds
will increase quickly this evening for areas west of I-65 as the
aforementioned surface low moves closer to Alabama. Expect
sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. There will
be a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main squall line,
but nothing severe expected. However, the may be some discrete
cells just ahead of the main squall line. We are keeping the 1 am
CDT start time for severe weather in the far western counties, but
some discrete cells may occur as early as midnight. This system
has all the ingredients for severe storms, including long track
strong tornadoes. The line of severe storms will track eastward
fairly quickly, and the storms will likely exit east Alabama by
late morning. There will be a sharp cut-off in the rain behind the
main convective line, so there will be a break in the precipitation
for several hours before some wrap around showers move into the
area on Sunday. The actual cold front will move across the area
during the day Sunday, which will trigger additional showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms. Surface winds will continue to be
brisk with speeds 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Sunday evening through Monday night.

The amplified trough associated with the active & severe weather
Sunday morning will be moving eastward over Central Alabama
overnight. Cold air advection at the surface and low-levels will
accompany this with improving conditions across the area as a stable
airmass moves into the Southeast. As such, PoPs will be trending
downward and will likely favor the east and northeast portions of
the area towards midnight. A lingering thunderstorm can't be ruled
out but the severe threat will end as frontal passage occurs to the
east & southeast. By Monday morning, there are no mentionable rain
chances with high pressure conditions moving into the area from the
west. Temperatures in the 40s are expected Monday morning with
northwesterly winds at 5-10 kts & gusts ~20 kts. Abundant afternoon
sunshine will help rebound temperatures into the 60s and 70s before
dropping back into the 40s overnight Monday under clear skies.

Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stable high pressure conditions should prevail across the Southeast
CONUS Tue/Wed with a dry airmass to boot. Broad deep-layer ridging
will begin to develop across the center of the country as high
pressure slides east towards the Carolinas. This suggests return
flow spreading across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley (MRV)
by Wednesday evening. Lows overnight Tuesday are forecast in the
50s, though 50s/60s should suit Wednesday night quite well once
southerly flow develops across our area and cloud cover increases.
For Wednesday evening, enough moisture return and isentropic
ascent will help increase rain chances in our western counties,
but have limited this to 20-30% for now. It appears most of the
showers and thunderstorms will stay to our west. Farther upstream
our next progged disturbance will be ejecting from the
Central/Southern Rockies into the Great Plains.

Thursday and Friday.

Trends in guidance have been relatively suggestive that the next
disturbance will create impacts for Central Alabama in the Thu/Fri
timeframe, but to what extent and exact timing still remains
unclear. There is good forecast confidence that the deep-layer
trough will amplify/close-off on Thursday whilst southwest flow
aloft develops over the Gulf Coast States. This resultantly
positions much of the lower MRV and Southeast CONUS into a maritime
tropical airmass with afternoon destabilization capable of producing
upwards of ~2,000+ MLCAPE, with 40-50 kts bulk shear. Varying
scenarios of how lee cyclogenesis evolves across the Plains will
dictate the timing/forward progress of the trailing cold front, thus
leaves aforementioned uncertainty of when thunderstorms & impactful
weather moves into Central Alabama.

However, it does appear that the synoptic configuration would favor
enough confidence to mention the chance of severe weather in the HWO
given the consistent synoptic scale signal the past few days, though
cannot produce clear details of what will happen this far out. With
favorable warm sector instability, associated shear profiles, and
deep-layer forcing, all modes of severe weather are on the table at
this time. Thus, best course of action for now is to start the
awareness building process and refine forecast in future updates.
Current solutions would suggest an area of low pressure to develop
near CO/KS/NE and exhibit ENE trajectory. Forward progress of the
low would place a trailing frontal boundary to our northwest
Thursday afternoon with a parameter space capable of producing
severe thunderstorms & tornadoes. Trends for this upcoming threat
will be monitored and updates to the forecast will be sent
accordingly.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across Central
Alabama tonight into the morning hours. Even outside of
convection, gradient winds will be very strong with sustained of
12-25 kts and gusts of 25-35 kts roughly. Have tried to time
storms and wind shifts behind the line for today. MVFR mainly
expected ahead of and behind convection.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Surface winds will increase overnight with sustained speeds of 15
to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph, especially over west Alabama and
higher elevations. A line of strong to severe storms will move
across central Alabama later tonight and into Sunday morning. This
system will produce periods of heavy rainfall and possibly
damaging winds, with the threat of tornadoes. The main convective
line will exit east Alabama by late Sunday morning, but moisture
on the back side of the system will trigger additional showers
Sunday afternoon. Expect brisk winds to continue throughout the
day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  41  67  44  77 /  80  30   0   0   0
Anniston    76  42  68  44  78 /  90  30   0   0   0
Birmingham  74  43  70  48  79 /  60  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  42  72  48  79 /  30  10   0   0   0
Calera      74  43  69  47  78 /  60  10   0   0   0
Auburn      77  45  68  47  76 / 100  30   0   0   0
Montgomery  79  45  72  47  80 /  90  10   0   0   0
Troy        79  45  71  48  79 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

ALZ011>015-017>050-150830-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1227 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to spread eastward across much of
Central Alabama through the late night hours. Tornadoes, some of
which could be strong, and damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible.

Outside of thunderstorms, sustained gradient winds of 15 to 30 mph,
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Severe thunderstorms will continue to be possible through noontime
Sunday across the southeast half of Central Alabama. Tornadoes and
damaging winds up to 60 mph are possible.

Outside of thunderstorms, sustained gradient winds of 15 to 30 mph,
with gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible through 9PM Sunday night.

Minor flooding will be possible along the Tombigbee River basin
starting Sunday and remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across all of Central
Alabama. Tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and quarter size
hail are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
tonight through midday Sunday. Activation may be needed again on
Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

ALZ011>013-140645-
Fayette AL-Marion AL-Lamar AL-
100 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND
CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 100 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hackleburg to near Detroit to near Vernon.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Winfield, Haleyville, Vernon, Sulligent, Guin, Hackleburg,
Brilliant, Glen Allen, Beaverton, Gu-
Win, Weston, Bluff, Blooming Grove, Lamar County Airport, Brinn, Lake
Buttahatchee, Crews, Bear Creek and Twin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 8816 3431 8797 3431 8764 3418 8763
      3387 8764 3387 8762 3384 8763 3362 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0600Z 239DEG 35KT 3428 8788 3402 8809 3369 8816

32/Davis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
210 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CEDARVILLE              32.61N 87.67W
04/14/2019                   HALE               AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ACROSS ROAD AT HIGHWAY 69 AND
            COUNTY ROAD 16.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
250 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 AM     TORNADO          HAGLER                  33.03N 87.34W
04/14/2019                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN NEAR HAGLER VFD.
            POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
259 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW MERCEDES-BENZ US  33.15N 87.27W
04/14/2019                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON WIRE RD BETWEEN VANCE AND
            COALING.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 ESE CORONA            33.70N 87.44W
04/14/2019                   WALKER             AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 18 NEAR PATTON HILL
            RD, IN OAKMAN, FROM GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF
            CONVECTION. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

HA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE GALLION            32.51N 87.70W
04/14/2019                   HALE               AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO A BARN ON
            GALLION RD. DAMAGE ALSO CONFIRMED BY
            SPOTTER.

&&

HA