Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 53

April 15, 201840 counties in North Carolina; 8 counties in South Carolina; 26 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Apr 15, 2018, 3:02 PM EDT for 40 counties in North Carolina; 8 counties in South Carolina; 26 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 15, 2018, 3:02 PM EDT (19:02 UTC)
Expired
Apr 15, 2018, 11:00 PM EDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 74 counties

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pender County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Wythe County, VA

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

36 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 15, 3:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKStokes, Surry57 min
Apr 15, 3:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAnson, Stanly45 min
Apr 15, 3:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBotetourt, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery and 5 more63 min
Apr 15, 4:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKRockingham, Stokes, Surry, Yadkin67 min
Apr 15, 4:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILMFlorence, Marion, Williamsburg65 min
Apr 15, 4:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHDavidson, Montgomery, Randolph64 min
Apr 15, 4:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHDavidson, Forsyth43 min
Apr 15, 4:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHDavidson, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph55 min
Apr 15, 4:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAnson, Montgomery, Richmond, Stanly52 min
Apr 15, 4:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILMDarlington, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Marlboro58 min
Apr 15, 4:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHHoke, Moore, Scotland80 min
Apr 15, 5:09 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHGuilford21 min
Apr 15, 5:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Botetourt, Floyd, Franklin, Henry, Patrick and 4 more63 min
Apr 15, 5:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKRockingham, Stokes34 min
Apr 15, 5:18 PM EDTTornado Warning Tornado observedRNKCaswell, Rockingham42 min
Apr 15, 5:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Chatham, Orange65 min
Apr 15, 5:45 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKPittsylvania, City of Danville45 min
Apr 15, 5:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHCumberland, Harnett, Lee67 min
Apr 15, 6:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCaswell56 min
Apr 15, 6:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHDurham, Granville, Person, Wake67 min
Apr 15, 6:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAmherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington78 min
Apr 15, 6:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHChatham, Orange37 min
Apr 15, 6:23 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKBedford, Campbell, Pittsylvania26 min
Apr 15, 6:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAmherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Buckingham, Campbell, Charlotte and 3 more88 min
Apr 15, 6:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHChatham, Harnett, Wake48 min
Apr 15, 7:07 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKAmherst, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg38 min
Apr 15, 7:34 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKBuckingham26 min
Apr 15, 7:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILMDillon, Florence, Georgetown, Horry, Marion, Williamsburg53 min
Apr 15, 8:06 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHHoke, Scotland3 hr
Apr 15, 8:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHChatham, Cumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Moore and 2 more44 min
Apr 15, 8:50 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRAHChatham, Durham, Granville, Harnett, Lee, Moore and 2 more4 hr
Apr 15, 9:17 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHVance, Warren28 min
Apr 15, 9:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHCumberland, Harnett, Johnston, Sampson, Wake, Wayne44 min
Apr 15, 9:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHDurham, Franklin, Granville, Vance, Wake, Warren40 min
Apr 15, 10:22 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHFranklin, Granville, Nash, Vance, Wake, Warren53 min
Apr 15, 10:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHJohnston, Nash, Sampson, Wake, Wayne, Wilson64 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-04-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 28 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-04-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 104 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
28 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
638 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
104 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

928 
WWUS20 KWNS 151859
SEL3  
SPC WW 151859
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-160300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 53
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
300 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central North Carolina
  Eastern South Carolina
  Southern Virginia

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
  1100 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Bands of well-organized storms will continue to steadily
progress east/northeastward within a highly sheared environment.
Tornadoes and damaging winds will remain a threat into this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Lynchburg
VA to 30 miles south southwest of Florence SC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 51...WW 52...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22040.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 15, 11:15 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Anson, Cabarrus, Catawba, Davidson, Davie and 11 more2 hr
Apr 15, 12:13 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 16 more9 hr
Apr 15, 2:29 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 20 more91 min
Apr 15, 3:17 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnson, Cabarrus, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Rowan and 3 more88 min
Apr 15, 5:45 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Cabarrus, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland and 24 more90 min
Apr 15, 6:28 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCumberland, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Johnston, Nash and 4 more62 min
Apr 15, 6:14 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAmelia, Brunswick, Chesterfield, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna and 8 more7 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2018Tornado Watches in Virginia, 2018Tornado Watches in South Carolina, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.