Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 15, 2018, 5:12 PM EDT for 10 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 63 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 15, 2018, 5:12 PM EDT (21:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 15, 2018, 6:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 63 min
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 1.0 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Roanoke County, VA
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 5:35 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | Rocky Mount, VA | AT LEAST 4 LARGE TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS AROUND THE COMMUNITY OF ROCKY MOUNT. |
| Apr 15, 5:45 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | Axton, VA | A POWERLINE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN THE COMMUNITY OF AXTON BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. |
| Apr 15, 5:57 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | 2 Wnw Stewartsville, VA | LARGE LIMBS DOWN. |
| Apr 15, 6:10 PM EDT | TORNADO | 5 Nnw Moneta, VA | TORNADO OF APPROXIMATELY 0.66 MILE PATH LENGTH AND 100 YARD PATH WIDTH TOUCHED DOWN ON 1800 BLOCK OF MEAD VALLEY ROAD AT APPROXIMATELY 610 PM EDT ON APRIL 15TH, AND LIFTED ON 10000 BLOCK OF DICKERSON MILL ROAD AT AROUND 611 PM EDT. THE ROOF OF A HOME ON MEAD V |
| Apr 15, 6:20 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | 4 Nnw Moneta, VA | DEBRIS OF CATTLE BARN IN ROAD |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 23 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 12:13 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 9 hr |
| Apr 15, 3:02 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 38 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 881 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 143 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 148 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
780
WUUS51 KRNK 152112
SVRRNK
VAC019-023-063-067-089-141-161-690-770-775-152215-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0012.180415T2112Z-180415T2215Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
512 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Roanoke County in west central Virginia...
The City of Salem in west central Virginia...
Northeastern Floyd County in southwestern Virginia...
The City of Roanoke in west central Virginia...
The City of Martinsville in south central Virginia...
Western Bedford County in south central Virginia...
Southern Botetourt County in west central Virginia...
Henry County in south central Virginia...
Franklin County in west central Virginia...
Eastern Patrick County in southwestern Virginia...
* Until 615 PM EDT
* At 511 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Endicott to near Price, moving north at 60 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Martinsville...
Vinton...
and Bedford.
This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway, The
Salem Fairgrounds, The National D-Day Memorial, Martinsville Airport,
and Roanoke Regional Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted, act quickly and move to a
place of safety inside a sturdy structure such as a basement or small
interior room.
Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds, as well as
deadly cloud to ground lightning. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.
If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
&&
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and central, south central, southwestern and west
central Virginia.
LAT...LON 3688 8025 3743 8007 3752 7999 3754 7942
3704 7957 3704 7959 3654 7972 3654 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 199DEG 51KT 3691 8021 3656 7995
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
PW4 follow-up statements
401
WWUS51 KRNK 152128
SVSRNK
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
528 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
VAC141-152138-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180415T2215Z/
Patrick VA-
528 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
EASTERN PATRICK COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and central, south central, southwestern and west
central Virginia.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
LAT...LON 3679 8007 3680 8004 3700 8020 3743 8007
3752 7999 3754 7942 3704 7957 3704 7959
3654 7972 3654 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 209DEG 44KT 3713 8008 3677 7987
$$
VAC019-023-063-067-089-161-690-770-775-152215-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180415T2215Z/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-Floyd VA-City of Roanoke VA-
City of Martinsville VA-Bedford VA-Botetourt VA-Henry VA-Franklin VA-
528 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR
ROANOKE...NORTHEASTERN FLOYD...WESTERN BEDFORD...SOUTHERN
BOTETOURT...HENRY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...THE CITY OF SALEM...THE
CITY OF ROANOKE AND THE CITY OF MARTINSVILLE...
At 528 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Bent Mountain to Figsboro, moving northeast at 50
mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Martinsville...
Vinton...
and Bedford.
This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway, The
Salem Fairgrounds, The National D-Day Memorial, Martinsville Airport,
and Roanoke Regional Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.
Prepare immediately for LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, as well as
deadly cloud to ground lightning. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.
If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
&&
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and central, south central, southwestern and west
central Virginia.
LAT...LON 3679 8007 3680 8004 3700 8020 3743 8007
3752 7999 3754 7942 3704 7957 3704 7959
3654 7972 3654 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 209DEG 44KT 3713 8008 3677 7987
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
PW429
WWUS51 KRNK 152139
SVSRNK
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
539 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
VAC063-152149-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180415T2215Z/
Floyd VA-
539 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and central, south central, southwestern and west
central Virginia.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
LAT...LON 3680 8000 3702 8001 3731 8010 3752 7999
3754 7942 3704 7957 3704 7959 3654 7972
3654 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 200DEG 45KT 3726 8002 3685 7982
$$
VAC019-023-067-089-161-690-770-775-152215-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180415T2215Z/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-City of Roanoke VA-
City of Martinsville VA-Bedford VA-Botetourt VA-Henry VA-Franklin VA-
539 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR
EASTERN ROANOKE...WESTERN BEDFORD...SOUTHERN BOTETOURT...HENRY AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES...THE CITY OF SALEM...THE CITY OF ROANOKE AND THE
CITY OF MARTINSVILLE...
At 539 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Cave Spring to Sydnorsville, moving north at 50
mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Martinsville...
Vinton...
and Bedford.
This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway, The
Salem Fairgrounds, The National D-Day Memorial, Martinsville Airport,
and Roanoke Regional Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.
Prepare immediately for LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. For your
safety, move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Stay away from windows.
If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
&&
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and central, south central, southwestern and west
central Virginia.
LAT...LON 3680 8000 3702 8001 3731 8010 3752 7999
3754 7942 3704 7957 3704 7959 3654 7972
3654 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 200DEG 45KT 3726 8002 3685 7982
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
PW430
WWUS51 KRNK 152157
SVSRNK
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
557 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
VAC690-775-152207-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180415T2215Z/
City of Salem VA-City of Martinsville VA-
557 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
...THE CITY OF SALEM AND THE CITY OF MARTINSVILLE IS CANCELLED...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and central, south central, southwestern and west
central Virginia.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
LAT...LON 3683 7998 3702 7992 3729 7990 3752 7999
3754 7942 3704 7957 3704 7959 3654 7972
3672 7982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 204DEG 46KT 3748 7988 3703 7973
$$
VAC019-023-067-089-161-770-152215-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180415T2215Z/
Roanoke VA-City of Roanoke VA-Bedford VA-Botetourt VA-Henry VA-
Franklin VA-
557 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR
EAST CENTRAL ROANOKE...WESTERN BEDFORD...SOUTHERN BOTETOURT...EASTERN
HENRY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF ROANOKE...
At 557 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Fincastle to Western Smith Mountain Lake, moving
northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Vinton...
Bedford...
Rocky Mount...
and Buchanan.
This includes The following Location The National D-Day Memorial.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.
Prepare immediately for LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. For your
safety, move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Stay away from windows.
If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
&&
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and central, south central, southwestern and west
central Virginia.
LAT...LON 3683 7998 3702 7992 3729 7990 3752 7999
3754 7942 3704 7957 3704 7959 3654 7972
3672 7982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 204DEG 46KT 3748 7988 3703 7973
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
PW899
WWUS51 KRNK 152214
SVSRNK
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
614 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
VAC019-023-067-089-161-770-152222-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180415T2215Z/
Roanoke VA-City of Roanoke VA-Bedford VA-Botetourt VA-Henry VA-
Franklin VA-
614 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
EAST CENTRAL ROANOKE...WESTERN BEDFORD...SOUTHERN BOTETOURT...EASTERN
HENRY AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CITY OF ROANOKE WILL
EXPIRE AT 615 PM EDT...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for north central
North Carolina...and central, south central and west central
Virginia.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
Remember, a new Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for
Amherst, Bedford, Botetourt, and Rockbridge counties of Virginia,
including the cities of Buena Vista and Lexington, until 730 PM.
LAT...LON 3683 7998 3702 7992 3729 7990 3752 7999
3754 7942 3704 7957 3704 7959 3654 7972
3672 7982
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 199DEG 51KT 3768 7979 3723 7964
$$
PWWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 15, 5:00 PM EDT, 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 5:00 PM EDT, 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
500 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue to progress across the region
this evening, and offshore by early Monday. A line of showers
and thunderstorms will precede the boundary this afternoon into
tonight before drier air arrives overnight. Storms may be strong
to locally severe. Much colder air on strong northwest winds
including mountain snow or rain showers follows the front for
early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 458 PM EDT Sunday...
Line of strong/severe storms along a line from Covington, VA to
Roanoke to Stuart to Triad NC. Have dropped the Tornado Watch
west of this line, as airmass stabilized with moderate showers
expected.
Severe/Tornado threat continues to the east, especially in the
piedmont where better instability coincides with higher shear.
Previous discussion from mid afternoon...
Issued Tornado Watch 53 which includes the Piedmont of VA/NC, Blue
Ridge foothills, New River and Roanoke Valleys until 03z/11pm. I've
removed Ashe and Watauga Counties from Tornado Watch 52, which
remains in effect until 7 PM. Flash Flood Watch were expanded with
the afternoon package northward, per collaboration with NWS
Sterling, into Bath, Rockbridge, Botetourt and Alleghany Counties in
VA.
Ongoing QLCS with several kinks embedded in the line extended from
Mercer County WV southward into eastern SC; we are also carefully
monitoring cluster of multicells moving north from the Triad into a
somewhat more unstable environment in the VA Piedmont/Southside. Air
mass remains highly sheared owing to strong low and mid-level wind
fields. No change to prior thinking that the main threats will be
damaging winds and perhaps short-lived/brief tornadoes, with hail
being a secondary concern associated with supercell structures.
Reported rain rates have been torrential at times and it will take
training to produce flash flooding. Urban areas as well as in the
western mountains where 1-hrly flash flood guidance is between 1.5-2
inches would be areas most vulnerable to flash flooding. Squall line
will pivot northeast until late this evening. Threat of severe and
localized hydro will continue through that period before FROPA
results in more rapid SW->NE clearing. Exception will be in the
mountains of southeast West Virginia where upslope rain will begin
to transition/mix with wet snow overnight as temperatures begin to
cool aloft. Northwest winds will be on the increase during the
evening/overnight and become gusty but likely sub-Advisory, at
least until early Monday morning.
Cold advection, good mixing and strong pressure rises will continued
to lead to an increase in northwest wind gusts. Could envision a
need for a Wind Advisory for southern Blue Ridge for Monday from
Roanoke to Boone. Given active weather in the first 12 hrs and that
it is a late second period/early third period headline, will defer
to later guidance before considering this attm. Precip will continue
to fall in upslope areas as mainly a rain/snow mix with little
accumulation; somewhat better chance for light accumulations of snow
become more likely in western Greenbrier through Tazewell and the
mountains of NW NC after this period. Highs 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 349 PM EDT Sunday...
Ongoing mountain -SHSN will continue to affect our western mountains
counties Monday night into Tuesday, in the favored upslope areas in
western Greenbrier County down into the mountains of northwest NC.
Factoring in forecast snow amounts from Monday leads to forecast
snow accumulations from a coating to up to 2 inches with the
greatest in the western hillsides in western Greenbrier County.
Present accumulations are below Advisory thresholds and are also
over a long stretch of time, essentially a long-duration light snow
event where any modest accumulation confined to the evening. Will
also continue to have gusty northwest winds, but general trend will
be for slow abatement into Tuesday. Low temperatures in the upper
20s to mid 30s Monday night, with highs into the 40s. Quieter
weather anticipated for Tuesday night into Wednesday with beginning
of modest warming trend into Wednesday. Lows upper 30s to mid 40s
Tuesday night, while temperatures rebound in the 60s to lower 70s
Wednesday
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 510 AM EDT Sunday...
With active weather in the near-term period, didn't spend as much
time with this forecast period with the forecast basis being from
the overnight 00z and 06z model suite, along with early 12z
guidance.
Warming trend to temperatures continues early in the period (thru
Thursday) before a cold front associated with a low pressure
area/clipper system passes to our north. Chances for showers appear
limited in this period. Brief cool down Friday into first part of
Saturday with below-normal temps indicated. Temperatures than begin
to warm along with moisture values as we await a progged strong
southern stream disturbance moving out of the mid-Mississippi Valley
to impact the region Sunday into Monday. This may bring another shot
of decent rainfall to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...
Poor flying conditions expected through the 18z TAF period,
especially from 18 to 03z due to the potential for
thunderstorms. Storms will be capable of damaging convective
outflow and low-level turbulence/microbursts. Indicated +SHRA
through the aforementioned period when showers and/or
thunderstorms are most likely. See specific TAFs for timing. Best
chance for severe thunderstorms is along and east of the Blue
Ridge, especially for Danville and potentially into Roanoke and
Lynchburg. Storms expected to take shape in a linear fashion and
bring potentially heavy rainfall. Indicated MVFR ceilings with
MVFR-IFR visibility. Winds will be east-southeast to southeast
10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts.
Powerful cold front will move east between 03-06z with skies
beginning to clear in the Piedmont to VFR but remain MVFR with
lingering upslope showers. Expect a gusty wind shift to west
with FROPA and an eventual continued veer to northwest. Off and
on showers will continue until 18z in the far west, with
northwest wind gusts increasing with mixing very late in the TAF
period.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Gusty northwest winds will continue Monday night through Tuesday
along with mountain sub-VFR in low cigs espcly KBLF/KLWB.
Finally looking at a return to overall VFR on Wednesday with a
gusty southwest wind likely ahead of yet another approaching
cold front.
Next front arrives Wed night-Thu with chance of showers, with
gusty winds and sub-VFR cigs again Thursday in the mountains.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
As of 349 PM EDT Sunday...
Have added Flash Flood Watch further north, which now includes
all counties west of Amherst, Bedford, Pittsylvania and Caswell
Counties line.
Main concern with possible training of multiple convective bands
over the mountains this afternoon and early evening where
guidance has between 1 to as much as 4 inches of rain in a 6-8
hour window. Rainfall rates could also be better than a couple
inches per hour if convection does indeed deepen enough
especially to the south. This similar scenario has lead to flash
flooding with past events. Some concern for convection to
perhaps limit moisture transport early on before the system
negatively tilts allowing for deepening south/southeast flow to
win out. However this only supported by limited number of
solutions with the latest GFS/ECMWF more in support of the
heaviest rain near the watch area. This could lead to some river
flooding as well into early next week so something to watch
pending locations of heavy rainfall and overall totals at this
point.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-
009>020-022>024-032-033-043.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ001>005-
018>020.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
SYNOPSIS...AL
NEAR TERM...AL/WP
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...AL/JH
HYDROLOGY...AL/JHHazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 5:05 PM EDT, 7 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 NCZ006-VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059-162115- Caswell-Bedford-Amherst-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham- Halifax-Charlotte- 505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 ...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, central Virginia and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ009>017-019-020-WVZ044-162115- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Smyth-Bland-Giles- Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Alleghany VA-Bath- Monroe- 505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Northwest winds could gust as high as 45 to 50 mph Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. VAZ007-WVZ042-043-507-508-162115- Tazewell-Mercer-Summers-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ004-005-VAZ018-022>024-032-033-043-162115- Stokes-Rockingham-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick- Franklin-Henry- 505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... ...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. West to northwest winds may gust as high as 45 mph, especially close to the Blue Ridge. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Apr 15, 4:25 PM EDT, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0409 PM TSTM WND DMG SE FLOYD 36.92N 80.32W
04/15/2018 FLOYD VA AMATEUR RADIO
SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.
&&
WHPLocal storm report, Apr 15, 4:26 PM EDT, 46 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
426 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0306 PM HAIL HILLSVILLE 36.77N 80.73W
04/15/2018 M2.50 INCH CARROLL VA 911 CALL CENTER
WDBJ VIEWER PHOTO OF TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL IN
HILLSVILLE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
ANDREWLLocal storm report, Apr 15, 4:35 PM EDT, 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
435 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW SPRING VALLEY 36.70N 81.09W
04/15/2018 GRAYSON VA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
A LARGE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG
CARSONVILLE ROAD.
&&
16Local storm report, Apr 15, 4:36 PM EDT, 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
436 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0338 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W FRANCISCO 36.50N 80.38W
04/15/2018 STOKES NC PUBLIC
TWITTER REPORT OF MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWNED ON
INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 89 AND HORSESHOE LANE NEAR
FRANCISCO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
LOCONTOLocal storm report, Apr 15, 4:38 PM EDT, 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
438 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 PM HAIL 6 SSW PILOT 36.97N 80.40W
04/15/2018 E1.00 INCH FLOYD VA AMATEUR RADIO
&&
WHPLocal storm report, Apr 15, 4:50 PM EDT, 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0343 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 E BOTTOM 36.49N 80.71W
04/15/2018 SURRY NC 911 CALL CENTER
POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN ALONG PINE RIDGE ROAD BY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
&&
16The office that day
Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 3:57 AM EDT | Flash Flood Watch | RNK | Alleghany, Bath, Bland, Botetourt, Carroll, Craig and 21 more | 20 hr |
| Apr 15, 1:07 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Grayson, Smyth | 38 min |
| Apr 15, 1:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Grayson | 69 min |
| Apr 15, 1:45 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Tazewell | 30 min |
| Apr 15, 2:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Carroll, Patrick | 63 min |
| Apr 15, 2:34 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Bland, Wythe | 56 min |
| Apr 15, 2:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bland, Carroll, Grayson, Pulaski, Wythe, City of Galax and 1 more | 64 min |
| Apr 15, 2:48 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Carroll, Grayson, City of Galax | 3 hr |
| Apr 15, 3:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Carroll, Floyd, Franklin, Patrick, Pulaski | 57 min |
| Apr 15, 3:43 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Giles, Montgomery, City of Radford | 62 min |
| Apr 15, 3:57 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Botetourt, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery and 5 more | 63 min |
| Apr 15, 4:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Floyd, Henry, Patrick, City of Martinsville | 67 min |
| Apr 15, 4:17 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Carroll | 3 hr |
| Apr 15, 4:37 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Floyd, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Radford | 3 hr |
| Apr 15, 5:45 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Pittsylvania, City of Danville | 45 min |
| Apr 15, 6:04 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Charlotte, Halifax, City of Danville | 56 min |
| Apr 15, 6:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington | 78 min |
| Apr 15, 6:23 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Bedford, Campbell, Pittsylvania | 26 min |
| Apr 15, 6:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Buckingham, Campbell, Charlotte and 3 more | 88 min |
| Apr 15, 7:07 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg | 38 min |
| Apr 15, 7:34 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | RNK | Buckingham | 26 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2018Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.